Success rate is the share of a team's plays that gained positive expected points. A play counts as a success when it left the offense in a better spot than it started, so a 4-yard run on first-and-10 succeeds and a 4-yard run on third-and-8 fails. Where EPA per play measures how big the gains were, success rate measures how often they came.
Updated Sept. 16, 2026.
Through Week 1, the Jacksonville Jaguars lead the league in success rate at 60.4%, better than 99.3% of every team's start through the same week since 1999. The Pittsburgh Steelers are last at 32.8% (10.9%).
A play succeeds when it gains positive EPA.
| # | Team | success rate | Plays |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Jacksonville Jaguars | 60.4% | 53 |
| 2 | New York Giants | 60.0% | 65 |
| 3 | San Francisco 49ers | 56.2% | 64 |
| 4 | Chicago Bears | 54.3% | 70 |
| 5 | Baltimore Ravens | 50.0% | 60 |
| 6 | New York Jets | 50.0% | 60 |
| 7 | Arizona Cardinals | 49.3% | 69 |
| 8 | Carolina Panthers | 48.4% | 62 |
| 9 | Tampa Bay Buccaneers | 47.1% | 51 |
| 10 | Cincinnati Bengals | 46.8% | 62 |
| 11 | Houston Texans | 46.6% | 73 |
| 12 | Dallas Cowboys | 46.2% | 52 |
| 13 | Detroit Lions | 45.2% | 73 |
| 14 | Cleveland Browns | 44.9% | 49 |
| 15 | Tennessee Titans | 44.9% | 49 |
| 16 | Los Angeles Rams | 42.9% | 56 |
| 17 | Washington Commanders | 42.6% | 68 |
| 18 | Kansas City Chiefs | 42.2% | 64 |
| 19 | Las Vegas Raiders | 42.2% | 64 |
| 20 | New Orleans Saints | 41.9% | 86 |
| 21 | New England Patriots | 41.8% | 67 |
| 22 | Indianapolis Colts | 41.5% | 53 |
| 23 | Seattle Seahawks | 40.4% | 47 |
| 24 | Buffalo Bills | 40.4% | 52 |
| 25 | Los Angeles Chargers | 39.2% | 51 |
| 26 | Green Bay Packers | 38.8% | 67 |
| 27 | Atlanta Falcons | 38.6% | 57 |
| 28 | Denver Broncos | 37.0% | 46 |
| 29 | Minnesota Vikings | 35.6% | 59 |
| 30 | Philadelphia Eagles | 35.3% | 51 |
| 31 | Miami Dolphins | 34.0% | 50 |
| 32 | Pittsburgh Steelers | 32.8% | 61 |
The classic version, from Football Outsiders, uses yardage thresholds: 40 percent of the needed yards on first down, 60 percent on second, all of it on third and fourth. The modern version, used by nflfastR and on this site, is simpler: a play succeeds if its EPA is above zero. The two agree most of the time.
Success rate is the stat that catches boom-or-bust offenses. A team that gains 60 yards on one play and nothing on the next nine has a fine EPA per play and a terrible success rate. A team that grinds out 5 yards every snap has the opposite profile. Sustained drives, clock control and red-zone trips come from the second kind of offense, so success rate is the better guide to how a team will look on a normal Sunday.
It is also the more stable of the two. Explosive plays are rare and noisy; the ability to stay on schedule is repeatable, which is why success rate predicts a team's future EPA better than its past EPA does over small samples.
The Chiefs and the Dolphins can both post +0.10 EPA per play in a month. If Kansas City does it at a 50 percent success rate and Miami at 42 percent with three 70-yard touchdowns, the model trusts Kansas City to keep doing it and expects Miami to come back to the pack.
Success rate = plays with EPA > 0 / total plays. Some sources instead count a play as successful if it gained 40 percent of the yards to go on first down, 60 percent on second down and 100 percent on third or fourth down.
League average sits around 45 percent. A season above 50 percent is elite; below 40 percent is a broken offense. Passing success rates run slightly higher than rushing, and third-down success rates are lower than first-down rates for every team.
They answer different questions. EPA per play says how much an offense produced; success rate says how consistently. For predicting the rest of the season, success rate is the steadier signal. For explaining last week's score, EPA is.
On first-and-10, yes, it keeps the offense ahead of schedule. On third-and-8, no, because the drive is probably over. The same yardage flips depending on down and distance, which is the whole point of the stat.
Category: Stats & Analytics. Part of the StickToTheModel NFL Encyclopedia.