Garbage time is the part of a game played after the outcome is decided: the leading team is protecting the clock and the trailing team is piling up yards against a defense that has stopped caring about them. Stats compiled in garbage time inflate the losing team's offense and the winning team's defense allowed, which is why analysts either exclude it or weight it down. The usual definition is any play where one team's win probability is above 95 percent.
Updated Sept. 16, 2026.
Week 1's most decided game was Cleveland Browns at Jacksonville Jaguars: 58% of its snaps came with one team's win probability past 95%, more garbage time than 97.4% of the 7,289 games since 1999. Washington Commanders at Philadelphia Eagles had the least at 0%.
A snap counts as garbage time when the offense's pre-snap win probability was at or below 5% or at or above 95%.
| Game | Garbage-time snaps | Plays |
|---|---|---|
| Cleveland Browns at Jacksonville Jaguars | 58% | 102 |
| Baltimore Ravens at Indianapolis Colts | 32% | 113 |
| New York Jets at Tennessee Titans | 28% | 109 |
| Chicago Bears at Carolina Panthers | 25% | 132 |
| San Francisco 49ers at Los Angeles Rams | 24% | 120 |
| Miami Dolphins at Las Vegas Raiders | 23% | 114 |
| Denver Broncos at Kansas City Chiefs | 23% | 110 |
| Dallas Cowboys at New York Giants | 13% | 117 |
| Green Bay Packers at Minnesota Vikings | 12% | 126 |
| Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Cincinnati Bengals | 11% | 113 |
| Arizona Cardinals at Los Angeles Chargers | 9% | 120 |
| New Orleans Saints at Detroit Lions | 3% | 159 |
| Atlanta Falcons at Pittsburgh Steelers | 2% | 118 |
| Buffalo Bills at Houston Texans | 0% | 125 |
| New England Patriots at Seattle Seahawks | 0% | 114 |
| Washington Commanders at Philadelphia Eagles | 0% | 119 |
The plays are real but the football is not. Down 24 with six minutes left, the offense throws every down against a soft zone whose only job is to keep the clock running; the yards and completions count in the box score exactly as if the game were tied. A quarterback can add 100 yards and a touchdown to his line without changing anything about the result.
There is no official definition. Win-probability thresholds (95 percent, sometimes 90) are the cleanest because they account for time and score together; score-based rules (down by 17 or more in the fourth quarter) are simpler and cruder. Fantasy production in garbage time is entirely real for fantasy purposes, which is why the concept cuts differently for betting and evaluation than for fantasy lineups.
Efficiency stats built on EPA are less distorted than raw yards, because EPA in a decided game is small in both directions, but they are not immune. This site's team and player numbers flag garbage-time share and offer a filtered view so that a defense that gave up 150 yards in the last eight minutes of a 31-3 game is not marked down for it.
A quarterback finishes 28 of 45 for 330 yards and 2 touchdowns in a 34-13 loss. 14 of the completions, 180 of the yards and both touchdowns came after the win probability passed 95 percent. His non-garbage line is 14 of 26 for 150 and none, which is the game his coaches watched.
Garbage-time play = any snap where the offense's pre-snap win probability is at or below 5 percent or at or above 95 percent. Garbage-time share of a game = such snaps / total snaps. Non-garbage stats are the same stats computed on the remaining snaps.
In the record book and in fantasy, fully. In evaluation, most analysts discount them, because the defense is no longer trying to prevent yards and the offense is no longer trying to win. The right answer depends on what the number is being used for.
The cleanest way is win probability: any play where one team is above 95 percent to win. Score-and-time rules (down 17 in the fourth quarter, down 24 in the second half) are common shortcuts and catch most of the same plays.
Yes, on spreads and totals. A late touchdown against a prevent defense can flip a cover or push a game over the total, which is why the 'backdoor cover' is a phrase. Totals models and spread models both need to account for how much garbage time a game is likely to have.
Category: Stats & Analytics. Part of the StickToTheModel NFL Encyclopedia.