Neutral script means the plays run while the game is still close, usually with the score within one possession and outside the final two minutes of a half. Play-calling stats measured in neutral script, like neutral-script pass rate, show what a coach chooses to do when the scoreboard is not choosing for him. A team trailing by 21 throws because it must; a team throwing in neutral script throws because it wants to.
Updated Sept. 16, 2026.
Through Week 1, with the score within one possession and outside the two-minute warnings, the Cincinnati Bengals have thrown +15.7% more than the situations called for, more than 95.8% of every team's start through the same week since 1999. The Atlanta Falcons are the most run-heavy at -16.6%.
Neutral script here means the score within 8 points, quarters 1 to 4, and not inside the final two minutes of either half.
| # | Team | Neutral PROE | Neutral plays |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Cincinnati Bengals | +15.7% | 22 |
| 2 | Denver Broncos | +15.2% | 22 |
| 3 | Pittsburgh Steelers | +11.6% | 53 |
| 4 | Tennessee Titans | +11.1% | 20 |
| 5 | Carolina Panthers | +9.3% | 37 |
| 6 | San Francisco 49ers | +7.7% | 40 |
| 7 | Jacksonville Jaguars | +6.7% | 17 |
| 8 | New Orleans Saints | +3.5% | 40 |
| 9 | Indianapolis Colts | +2.7% | 19 |
| 10 | Arizona Cardinals | +2.0% | 51 |
| 11 | Tampa Bay Buccaneers | +1.2% | 16 |
| 12 | Buffalo Bills | -0.4% | 43 |
| 13 | Green Bay Packers | -0.5% | 24 |
| 14 | Chicago Bears | -2.4% | 48 |
| 15 | Miami Dolphins | -3.1% | 11 |
| 16 | Seattle Seahawks | -3.4% | 31 |
| 17 | New York Giants | -3.6% | 57 |
| 18 | Cleveland Browns | -4.0% | 8 |
| 19 | New England Patriots | -4.1% | 53 |
| 20 | Dallas Cowboys | -4.2% | 22 |
| 21 | Las Vegas Raiders | -4.8% | 32 |
| 22 | Los Angeles Chargers | -5.0% | 34 |
| 23 | Kansas City Chiefs | -6.2% | 36 |
| 24 | Detroit Lions | -7.6% | 52 |
| 25 | Washington Commanders | -7.8% | 51 |
| 26 | Baltimore Ravens | -7.9% | 24 |
| 27 | Philadelphia Eagles | -7.9% | 46 |
| 28 | Houston Texans | -8.1% | 59 |
| 29 | Minnesota Vikings | -8.7% | 19 |
| 30 | New York Jets | -11.9% | 37 |
| 31 | Los Angeles Rams | -15.0% | 24 |
| 32 | Atlanta Falcons | -16.6% | 49 |
Game script is the sequence of situations a game hands a team. Fall behind early and the rest of the game is passing, hurry-up and pressure allowed; jump ahead and it is running, clock-killing and prevent defense. Season stats blend all of it together, so a bad team looks pass-heavy and a good team looks run-heavy regardless of what either coach believes.
Neutral script cuts the sample down to the plays where the scoreboard was not dictating. The common definition is score within 8 points (one possession), quarters 1 through 4, and not inside the two-minute warning of either half; some analysts use the first half only, or within 7. Within that window, pass rate, pace, personnel usage and fourth-down decisions are the coach's tendencies.
The stat matters most for projections. A team's neutral pass rate and neutral pace forecast the number of plays and the pass-run split next week better than raw totals, which is where fantasy volume comes from. And a shift in neutral tendencies after a coaching change is the first evidence the change is real.
The 2022 Bears passed on 46 percent of all snaps, near the bottom of the league, but on only 41 percent of neutral-script snaps, dead last: they trailed so often that game script dragged the raw number up. The neutral number is the one that described the offense Justin Fields was actually playing in.
Neutral-script plays = plays where |score differential| <= 8, quarter <= 4, and not within the last two minutes of the second or fourth quarter. Neutral pass rate, neutral pace and neutral PROE are the usual metrics computed on that subset.
First half is a simpler cut and catches most of the same plays, but a team that falls behind 21-0 in the first quarter is already off script. Score-based definitions keep the close plays from any quarter and drop the blowout plays from any quarter.
The share of neutral-script plays that were passes. It is the cleanest read on whether a coach is pass-first or run-first, and it is the number fantasy projections use to set a team's passing volume.
Seconds between snaps in neutral script. Fast neutral pace means more plays per game when the score is close, which raises every skill player's projection on that team.
Category: Stats & Analytics. Part of the StickToTheModel NFL Encyclopedia.