The Model Score is StickToTheModel's own rating of a player, the number that sits next to every name on the site's rankings. It is built from the player's projected production for the coming season, his value over replacement at his position in the chosen format, and, for dynasty, his age curve. It is scaled so that 100 is the best player in the pool and the ranking reads as a percentage of that. It is not a fantasy point total and not a market price.
Updated Sept. 16, 2026.
Rankings on most sites are a person's list. The Model Score is a formula's, so it can be audited: change the format from half-PPR to superflex and the scores change for a stated reason. The projection layer combines the player's recent efficiency (EPA-based for quarterbacks, target and route-based for receivers, RYOE and touches for backs), his expected role, and the team environment (pace, pass rate, quarterback quality). The value layer subtracts replacement level for the format. The dynasty layer applies an age and contract adjustment.
The score is deliberately not blended with ADP or trade values. The site publishes those next to it so a user can see where the model and the market disagree, and those disagreements are the content: the players the model likes more than drafters do are the fades and the targets. Blending would hide them.
The score is refreshed when the inputs move: weekly in season, after the draft and free agency in the offseason. The methodology page carries the version history.
A running back projected for 240 half-PPR points in a format where replacement is 150 has 90 points of value. If the top back in the pool has 120 points of value, the running back's Model Score is 75: three-quarters of the best available.
Model Score = 100 x (player's value over replacement) / (the top player's value over replacement) within the chosen format and position pool, where value over replacement = projected points minus the replacement-level projection. Dynasty applies an age-curve multiplier before scaling.
It is built on one but it is not the same number. The projection is points; the Model Score is those points above replacement, scaled to the best player. Two players with the same projection at different positions get different scores.
By design. ADP is what drafters do; the score is what the projection says. Where they disagree is where the site thinks a player is over- or under-drafted, and those gaps are published rather than averaged away.
Weekly during the season as roles and injuries change, and after every major offseason event. The board shows the date of its last refresh.
Category: Stats & Analytics. Part of the StickToTheModel NFL Encyclopedia.