Boom rate is the share of a player's games that finished as a top-tier week at his position, usually a top-12 finish for a running back or receiver and top-6 for a tight end. It measures spikes rather than averages. Two receivers can average 14 points a week with one booming three times and going quiet the rest and the other scoring 12 to 16 every week; in best ball, where only the high weeks count, the first is worth more.
Updated Sept. 16, 2026.
Season-long average points reward consistency. Best ball lineups are set automatically from each team's best scores every week, so the low weeks never count and the high weeks always do. That format pays for spikes, and boom rate is the stat that counts them.
Boom rate pairs with bust rate, the share of weeks below a floor (a bottom-tier finish or a near-zero). A player with a high boom rate and a high bust rate is a best-ball asset and a headache in head-to-head leagues; one with a low boom and low bust rate is the opposite. Volatility is a feature in one format and a cost in the other.
The drivers of boom rate are the drivers of variance: deep targets, red-zone usage, and a role that includes big plays. A high average depth of target predicts a higher boom rate at the same average; so does being the goal-line back. This site's best-ball rankings weight boom rate above average projection for the flex spots for that reason.
A receiver who scores 30, 4, 28, 6, 31, 5 over six weeks has a 50 percent boom rate and averages 17.3. One who scores 18, 16, 17, 15, 19, 16 has a 0 percent boom rate and averages 16.8. In best ball the first receiver contributed three lineup-winning weeks; the second contributed none.
Boom rate = games with a top-tier positional finish / games played. The tier is set by format: commonly top-12 (WR/RB), top-6 (TE) or top-5 (QB) in a given week. Bust rate uses the same construction with a floor.
For a wide receiver, a top-12 finish in a third of his games is a strong season and 40 percent or more is elite. Most useful starters land between 20 and 30 percent. Below 15 percent is a player who rarely wins a week for you.
Because best ball only counts your best scores each week. A player's bad weeks cost nothing; his great weeks are what advance a team. That flips the value of volatile players compared to head-to-head leagues, where a bad week loses the matchup.
Partly. The role does: deep targets and goal-line work carry over, and so do the spikes that come with them. Individual boom weeks are noisy, so boom rate is projected from usage rather than from last season's count.
Category: Stats & Analytics. Part of the StickToTheModel NFL Encyclopedia.