Pass rate over expected, or PROE, is how often a team throws compared to how often an average team would throw in the same situations. A model gives every play an expected pass probability from down, distance, field position, score and clock; PROE is the team's actual pass rate minus that expectation. A +5 percent team throws five more times per hundred plays than the situations called for. It is the cleanest measure of a coach's tendency.
Updated Sept. 16, 2026.
Through Week 1, the Pittsburgh Steelers lead the league in pass rate over expected at +10.6%, better than 93.9% of every team's start through the same week since 1999. The Los Angeles Rams are last at -17.3% (1.3%).
Expected pass rate comes from nflfastR's model of down, distance, field position, score and clock.
| # | Team | pass rate over expected | Plays |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Pittsburgh Steelers | +10.6% | 61 |
| 2 | Cincinnati Bengals | +5.0% | 62 |
| 3 | San Francisco 49ers | +5.0% | 64 |
| 4 | Tennessee Titans | +4.9% | 49 |
| 5 | New Orleans Saints | +3.9% | 86 |
| 6 | Carolina Panthers | +2.1% | 62 |
| 7 | Tampa Bay Buccaneers | +2.0% | 51 |
| 8 | Denver Broncos | +1.9% | 46 |
| 9 | Buffalo Bills | +1.1% | 52 |
| 10 | Kansas City Chiefs | +0.1% | 64 |
| 11 | Dallas Cowboys | -0.1% | 52 |
| 12 | Detroit Lions | -0.6% | 73 |
| 13 | Miami Dolphins | -0.9% | 50 |
| 14 | Chicago Bears | -1.5% | 70 |
| 15 | Arizona Cardinals | -1.5% | 69 |
| 16 | Green Bay Packers | -1.9% | 67 |
| 17 | Los Angeles Chargers | -2.1% | 51 |
| 18 | New England Patriots | -2.6% | 67 |
| 19 | Jacksonville Jaguars | -2.8% | 53 |
| 20 | New York Giants | -4.1% | 65 |
| 21 | Indianapolis Colts | -4.5% | 53 |
| 22 | Seattle Seahawks | -5.5% | 47 |
| 23 | Philadelphia Eagles | -5.9% | 51 |
| 24 | Washington Commanders | -6.0% | 68 |
| 25 | Las Vegas Raiders | -6.4% | 64 |
| 26 | Baltimore Ravens | -6.6% | 60 |
| 27 | Houston Texans | -7.1% | 73 |
| 28 | Minnesota Vikings | -8.6% | 59 |
| 29 | New York Jets | -10.2% | 60 |
| 30 | Cleveland Browns | -10.2% | 49 |
| 31 | Atlanta Falcons | -17.3% | 57 |
| 32 | Los Angeles Rams | -17.3% | 56 |
Raw pass rate is mostly game script. A team that trails all season throws a lot because it has to; a team that leads runs the clock. PROE removes the script and leaves the choice. When it is second-and-5 at midfield in a tie game, does this coach throw more or less than the league would?
The expected number comes from nflfastR's xpass model, which learns the league's habits from every play since 2006. Because the league as a whole is the baseline, PROE is relative: a +3 percent team in 2026 throws more than its peers, not more than some fixed standard. As the league has thrown more, the baseline has moved with it.
PROE matters because passing is more efficient than running on early downs, so a positive PROE in neutral situations tends to go with a better offense. It is also a fantasy tool: a team with a high PROE supports more receivers, and a coaching change that moves PROE by five points moves every skill player's projection.
The 2023 Dolphins and the 2023 Titans both passed on about 55 percent of their snaps. Miami played from ahead and was expected to pass 50 percent of the time, so its PROE was +5: an aggressive offense. Tennessee played from behind and was expected to pass 60 percent, so its PROE was -5: a run-first coach fighting the game script.
PROE = actual pass rate minus expected pass rate, in percentage points, over the chosen sample. Expected pass rate is the average of the xpass model's pass probability on each play. Neutral-script PROE restricts the sample to plays with the score within a touchdown and outside the final two minutes.
There is no good or bad in the abstract; it is a tendency. But because early-down passing is more efficient, teams with a positive neutral-script PROE score more on average, and the most consistently high-PROE offenses of the last decade have been the best offenses.
Yes, the coach. PROE is one of the stickiest team stats year to year as long as the play-caller stays, and one of the first to jump when he changes. For fantasy, a PROE swing is the earliest signal that a passing game's volume has changed.
The same number computed only on plays where the game is close, usually within one score and not in the last two minutes of a half. It removes the plays where the situation forces the call and isolates what the coach wants to do.
Category: Stats & Analytics. Part of the StickToTheModel NFL Encyclopedia.