Week 1 · Sunday 13:00 ET

Bills at Texans

Texans -1.5Reliant Stadium · outdoors
Total 44.5

The read

Texans laying 1.5 at home. The market opened this at Texans -1.5 with a 44.5 and has not touched it since 2026-07-31, across 36 daily checks.

Who is on the field

Buffalo

Houston

The Team HQ depth chart itself, not a copy. Offense and defense toggle inside it, and you can drag players to rearrange. Cross it against the injuries below.

Buffalo on its own page →Houston on its own page →

Who is not playing

Buffalo

Tyrell ShaversWRKnee - ACLOUT

Phidarian MathisDTSuspensionSUSPENDED

Keon ColemanWRFootQUESTIONABLE

Khalil ShakirWRQUESTIONABLE

Ty JohnsonRBLower LegQUESTIONABLE

Jedrick Wills Jr.OTBackQUESTIONABLE

Jude BowryOTFootQUESTIONABLE

Zane DurantDTIR

Houston

E.J. SpeedLBQuadricepsOUT

M.J. StewartSQuadricepsOUT

Brevin JordanTEKneeQUESTIONABLE

British BrooksRBHandQUESTIONABLE

Dominique RobinsonDECalfQUESTIONABLE

Jadeveon ClowneyDEAnkleQUESTIONABLE

Wade WoodazLBThumbQUESTIONABLE

Tank DellWRKnee - ACL + MCLIR

and 8 more

Skill players in white, because every trend and coverage read on this page assumes the man is on the field. Designations as of 2026-09-07. Anyone cleared is absent from this list entirely.

Buffalo depth chart →Houston depth chart →

Keys to the game

Bills

Take the shots downfield

Bills hit explosive passes 11.2%, 4th. Texans play two-high just 44.1%, 18th-fewest.

Has to

Protect the football

Bills throw picks 1.8%, 17th-most, into a defense that takes it away 3.1%, 3rd.

Texans

Go get the ball

Texans take it away 3.1%, 3rd. Bills throw picks 1.8%, 17th-most.

Has to

Keep a lid on it

Texans play two-high 44.1%, 18th-fewest, against the 4th explosive passing offense.

Not a key: pace. Bills 11th and Texans 6th in plays a game. Both play fast, so the total leans over.

Each team in one line

BillsRun it well1stMove the ball3rdWin early downs3rdRarely play Cover 32nd-lowest

TexansShut offenses down1stCannot run it3rd-worstNever break a long run3rd-worstLoad the boxlowest

Full tendencies, 2025 regular season, ranked against all 32

Buffalo

How they play

They rarely play Cover 322.0%Cover 3 rate2nd-lowest

and they run it more than almost anyone51.0%pass rate3rd-lowest

and they stay under center49.8%shotgun rate3rd-lowest

Where they win and lose

They run it well+0.11EPA a run1st

and they move the ball+0.14EPA a play3rd

and they win early downs-0.08early-down EPA allowed3rd

and they hit explosive passes11.2%explosive pass rate4th

Houston

How they play

They load the box11.1%light box ratelowest

and they rarely play Cover 322.2%Cover 3 rate4th-lowest

and they play fast63.4plays a game6th

Where they win and lose

They shut offenses down-0.14EPA allowed a play1st

and they cannot run it-0.08EPA a run3rd-worst

and they never break a long run9.3%explosive run rate3rd-worst

and they take the ball away3.1%interception rate3rd

Buffalo tendencies →Houston tendencies →

Angles that fire on this game

None of our frozen angles fire here. The slate is registered before the season and never added to mid-week, so an empty game stays empty.

Player trends that apply to this game

James CookRB has 9 of his last 10 games on the road with 50+ rushing yards.

9 of 10, 90% in this spot · 2024-2025

17 of 34, 50% in every other spot

Nico CollinsWR has 9 of his last 10 games at home with 50+ receiving yards.

9 of 10, 90% in this spot · 2024-2025

15 of 26, 58% in every other spot

The second number is the point. Everyone posts the first one.

Fantasy: who to start, and who they draw

Buffalo

James CookRB

58% of the carries · 59 red-zone touches

Texans are one of the hardest defenses for RBs, 26th

Khalil ShakirWR

19% of the targets · 15 red-zone touches

Texans are one of the hardest defenses for WRs, 32nd

Dalton KincaidTE

13% of the targets · 9 red-zone touches

Houston

Woody MarksRB

44% of the carries · 41 red-zone touches

Bills give up more to RBs than almost anyone, 8th

Nico CollinsWR

22% of the targets · 20 red-zone touches

Dalton SchultzTE

17% of the targets · 12 red-zone touches

Bills are one of the hardest defenses for TEs, 32nd

Usage is last season's average share and red-zone work. The defense line is what that team actually allowed to the position, ranked against all 32. Neither is a projection.

The last time they played

2025 wk 12

Bills at

Texans19-23Texans won, Texans covered

2024 wk 5

Bills at

Texans20-23Texans won, Texans covered

2021 wk 4

Texans at

Bills0-40Bills won, Bills covered

Against the spread in these meetings: 1-2 to Bills. Closing numbers, not openers.

Every meeting, with the lines →

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