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Week 1 · Sunday Sep 13 · Final

BillsatTexans

All week 1 games→Betting HQ→
FinalBUF 36, HOU 31Bills by 5
SpreadBUF -1.5Bills covered
Total44.5went over, 67 points
OpenedBUF -1.5moved 0 points by kickoff

The passing game. Expect the Bills to attack through the air all day.

Sunday: Bills threw for 334 yards and 2 touchdowns.

The model's reads, Over 44.5: it won.

The depth charts as they stand today.

Buffalo depth chart →Houston depth chart →

Bills passing game, 1st, against a pass defense ranked 25th.

Longer bar, better unit.

Bills with the ball

Bills offenseTexans defense
1st
Passing
25th
7th
Run game
11th
10th
Pass rush
20th
3rd
Third down
20th
1st
Big plays
27th
20th
Turnovers
22nd
5th
Red zone
21st

Texans with the ball

Texans offenseBills defense
10th
Passing
26th
25th
Run game
19th
4th
Pass rush
16th
18th
Third down
26th
13th
Big plays
21st
3rd
Turnovers
24th
21st
Red zone
26th

Ranks run 1st (best) to 32nd, 2026 through week 7 as they stood at kickoff, close-game snaps.

Bills scored 36 against a team total of 23: over.

Bills scored 36 against a team total of 23: over. the spread and total, split.

Texans scored 31 against a team total of 21.5: over. the spread and total, split.

The situations on the schedule that fit this game.

This week · Bills in week 1 with the worse head coach by two tiers
129-91
this game200020052010201520202025
129 covered91 did notevery game since 1999, 59%; since 2021 36-14

The last time the Bills were here, Sep 9, 2001: lost to the Saints by 18 as a 1.5-point underdog.

Inside the luck line: 220 games, and shuffled results produce records like this one. Reading, not a bet; the lean is the Bills.

This week · Bills with an elite quarterback with a head coach in his first 17 games
137-178
this game200020052010201520202025
137 covered178 did notevery game since 1999, 43%; since 2021 17-33

The last time the Bills were here, Nov 25, 2001: lost to the Dolphins by 7 as a 5-point underdog.

Inside the luck line: 315 games, and shuffled results produce records like this one. Reading, not a bet; the lean is the Texans.

This week · Texans with the worse quarterback by two tiers in week 1
145-111
this game200020052010201520202025
145 covered111 did notevery game since 1999, 57%; since 2021 35-25

The last time the Texans were here, Sep 7, 2003: beat the Dolphins by 1 as a 14-point underdog.

Inside the luck line: 256 games, and shuffled results produce records like this one. Reading, not a bet; the lean is the Texans.

This week · The total in week 1 in a pick 'em
46-60
this game200020052010201520202025
46 went over60 stayed underevery game since 1999, 43%; since 2021 8-16

Inside the luck line: 106 games, and shuffled results produce records like this one. Reading, not a bet; the lean is the under.

Searched this week: 1,157 spread situations and 92 on the total, every attribute on the schedule alone, in pairs and in triples, against every game since 1999. The luck line sits at z 3.92 on the spread and 3.37 on the total.

No player line on this game was archived with a read.

Nothing was on the official card for this game.

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