C.J. Stroud
Houston Texans·#7Model Score
How good he is at what he is supposed to be doing, out of 100. Not a projection of what he will do next, and not a read on his contract. Median is about 70, and a 95 is rare. How it is built →
Season Stats · 14 games
Advanced Metrics EPA & Next Gen Stats
STM Take
Stroud's 2025 line at STTM #22 tier 6 is the third distinct tier he has finished in across three NFL seasons (tier 2 rookie, tier 8 sophomore, tier 6 now). The career has one of the widest variance bands of any starter on the board. The rookie ceiling is real; the question is which version of him 2026 shows.
Stroud was born in Rancho Cucamonga, California, joined Snoop Dogg's youth league at twelve, and lived in a small apartment above a storage facility after his father was sentenced under California's three-strikes law. He played at Ohio State, was a Heisman finalist in both 2021 and 2022, and Houston took him second overall in the 2023 NFL Draft. As a rookie he won Offensive Rookie of the Year and led the Texans to a division title and playoff win.
Strengths
- Rookie year STTM #7 tier 2 + Offensive Rookie of the Year remains the cleanest year-one case in the top 25.
- 62 career TDs against 25 INTs on 1,454 attempts is a top-tier ratio for a third-year starter.
Concerns
- Sophomore drop to STTM #40 tier 8 is the worst year-two collapse of any tier-1 rookie on the current board.
- 2025 game logs include three games under 10 PPR in the back half, suggesting the supporting cast is still the limiting factor.
What to watch: Whether Houston's pass-protection and receiver investments produce a tier-3 or better season; the talent is bracketed by the cast.
Fantasy Outlook
C.J. Stroud scored 208 PPR points, 14.9 per game this season. Compare him against any QB and track weekly rankings in our fantasy tools.