Week 1 · Sunday 16:25 ET
Cardinals at 
Chargers
Cardinals -10.0SoFi Stadium · indoors
Total 47.5
Total 47.5
The read
A dome and a 47.5 that is among the highest on the board. It opened Cardinals -10.5 and 45.5 and has moved three times since, most recently on 2026-09-07.
Who is on the field
The Team HQ depth chart itself, not a copy. Offense and defense toggle inside it, and you can drag players to rearrange. Cross it against the injuries below.
Who is not playing
Arizona
Jeremiyah LoveRBAnkleQUESTIONABLE
Blake GillikinPGroinQUESTIONABLE
Dadrion Taylor-DemersonSRibsQUESTIONABLE
Will JohnsonCBLower BodyQUESTIONABLE
and 1 more
Los Angeles
Brenen ThompsonWRQUESTIONABLE
Keaton MitchellRBQUESTIONABLE
Tre' HarrisWRQUESTIONABLE
Cameron DickerPKQUESTIONABLE
Rashawn SlaterOTQUESTIONABLE
and 3 more
Skill players in white, because every trend and coverage read on this page assumes the man is on the field. Designations as of 2026-09-07. Anyone cleared is absent from this list entirely.
Keys to the game
CardinalsFind Bourne against zone
0.52 EPA a target vs zone, 10th of 104. Chargers play zone 77.1%, 6th.
Send it at Herbert, and get there
Herbert falls to 0.04 blitzed, but Cardinals are only 29th at turning the blitz into pressure.
Has to
Find a way to score twice
Cardinals are 10th-worst in EPA a play into the 9th-best defense. Field position is the game.
ChargersSqueeze them
Chargers are 9th-best in EPA allowed. Cardinals are 10th-worst in EPA a play.
Get home without blitzing
Pressure rate 31.2%, 12th. Cardinals take the 10th-most sacks.
Has to
Change the picture on Bourne
He is -0.23 against man. Chargers play it 22.9%, 27th.
Not a key: pace. Cardinals 7th and Chargers 3rd in plays a game. Both play fast, so the total leans over.
Each team in one line
CardinalsLose early downs3rd-worstNever break a long run4th-worstCannot get pressure4th-worstThrow it as much as anyone1stChargersTake the ball away2ndGet sacked5th-worstWin early downs6thPlay light boxes1stFull tendencies, 2025 regular season, ranked against all 32
Arizona
How they play
They throw it as much as anyone66.1%pass rate1st
and they play light boxes30.8%light box rate2nd
and they play two-high50.6%two-high rate4th
and they go no-huddle12.1%no-huddle rate6th
Where they win and lose
They lose early downs+0.24early-down EPA allowed3rd-worst
and they never break a long run9.6%explosive run rate4th-worst
and they cannot get pressure25.8%pressure rate4th-worst
and they let everything get completed60.3%completion rate allowed4th-worst
Los Angeles
How they play
They play light boxes34.1%light box rate1st
and they play fast63.5plays a game3rd
and they almost never blitz21.1%blitz rate5th-lowest
and they almost never play man22.9%man coverage rate6th-lowest
Where they win and lose
They take the ball away3.2%interception rate2nd
and they get sacked9.6%sacks taken5th-worst
and they win early downs-0.03early-down EPA allowed6th
and they get sacks7.7%sack rate6th
Angles that fire on this game
Underdog vs a team looking ahead to a division game
Take away · 991-915 in testing
TEST, expectation null. Surfaced by the 2026-08-28 depth-4 sweep INSIDE the luck envelope; the model-free base rate is 50.3%. Registered to settle it forward, not because we believe it.
52.0%
Model lean vs a team looking ahead to a division game
Take away · 764-680 in testing · our number is 5.8 points off the market
TEST, expectation null. Same sweep, same luck-envelope caveat as PR-004.
52.9%
Frozen before the season and graded in public whatever happens. Where we do not believe one, it says so above in its own words.
Player trends that apply to this game
Trey McBrideTE has 8 of his last 10 games on the road with a receiving touchdown.8 of 10, 80% in this spot · 2024-2025
5 of 28, 18% in every other spot
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Jacoby BrissettQB has 8 of his last 10 games indoors as a favorite with 2+ passing touchdowns.8 of 10, 80% in this spot · 2023-2025
4 of 26, 15% in every other spot
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Marvin Harrison Jr.WR has 7 of his last 10 games indoors with 50+ receiving yards.7 of 10, 70% in this spot · 2024-2025
2 of 10, 20% in every other spot
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Fantasy: who to start, and who they draw
Arizona
Chargers are one of the hardest defenses for RBs, 31st
Chargers are one of the hardest defenses for WRs, 30th
Los Angeles
Cardinals give up more to RBs than almost anyone, 4th
Cardinals give up more to TEs than almost anyone, 4th
Usage is last season's average share and red-zone work. The defense line is what that team actually allowed to the position, ranked against all 32. Neither is a projection.
The last time they played
2024 wk 7 Chargers at Cardinals15-17Cardinals won, Cardinals covered
Chargers at Cardinals15-17Cardinals won, Cardinals covered2022 wk 12 Chargers at Cardinals25-24Chargers won, Cardinals covered
Chargers at Cardinals25-24Chargers won, Cardinals coveredAgainst the spread in these meetings: 2-0 to Cardinals. Closing numbers, not openers.