Week 1 · Sunday 16:25 ET

Commanders at Eagles

Commanders -4.5Lincoln Financial Field · outdoors
Total 44.5

The read

A division game. The forecast has gusts to 15 miles an hour. Not enough on its own to move a total, but it is real. It opened Commanders -5.5 and 46.5 and has moved 7 times since, most recently on 2026-09-07.

Who is on the field

Washington

Philadelphia

The Team HQ depth chart itself, not a copy. Offense and defense toggle inside it, and you can drag players to rearrange. Cross it against the injuries below.

Washington on its own page →Philadelphia on its own page →

Who is not playing

Washington

Deatrich Wise Jr.DEQuadricepsOUT

Ben SinnottTEObliqueQUESTIONABLE

Jacory Croskey-MerrittRBLower BodyQUESTIONABLE

Marcus MariotaQBKnee - MCLQUESTIONABLE

Rachaad WhiteRBHamstringQUESTIONABLE

Tim SettleDTCalfQUESTIONABLE

Jacoby JonesWRIR

Jeremy McNicholsRBQuadricepsIR

and 5 more

Philadelphia

Jonathan GreenardLBPectoralOUT

Eli StowersTEHamstringQUESTIONABLE

Byron YoungDTShoulderQUESTIONABLE

Cooper DeJeanCBGroinQUESTIONABLE

Jonathan JonesCBShoulderQUESTIONABLE

Markel BellOTThumbQUESTIONABLE

Micah MorrisGShoulderQUESTIONABLE

Grant CalcaterraTEBackIR

and 3 more

Skill players in white, because every trend and coverage read on this page assumes the man is on the field. Designations as of 2026-09-07. Anyone cleared is absent from this list entirely.

Washington depth chart →Philadelphia depth chart →

Keys to the game

Commanders

Run into light boxes

Commanders pass only 51.4%, 4th-fewest. Eagles show a light box 27.0%, 4th-most.

Has to

Find a way to score twice

Commanders are 15th-worst in EPA a play into the 7th-best defense. Field position is the game.

Has to

Hold up against four

Sacks taken 7.4%, 14th-most. Quick game does not fix a four-man rush.

Eagles

Squeeze them

Eagles are 7th-best in EPA allowed. Commanders are 15th-worst in EPA a play.

Run into light boxes

Eagles pass only 53.5%, 7th-fewest. Commanders show a light box 20.1%, 17th-most.

Get home without blitzing

Pressure rate 32.9%, 8th. Commanders take the 14th-most sacks.

Not a key: pace. Commanders 27th and Eagles 25th in plays a game. Two of the slowest offenses in football, so the total leans under.

Each team in one line

CommandersLose early downs2nd-worstBreak explosive runs6thNever take it away6th-worstGo no-huddle1st

EaglesMake throws hard2ndProtect the football5thShut offenses down7thAlmost never blitz2nd-lowest

Full tendencies, 2025 regular season, ranked against all 32

Washington

How they play

They go no-huddle61.7%no-huddle rate1st

and they live in shotgun87.9%shotgun rate1st

and they run on early downs45.6%early-down pass rate2nd-lowest

Where they win and lose

They lose early downs+0.25early-down EPA allowed2nd-worst

and they break explosive runs12.6%explosive run rate6th

and they never take it away1.3%interception rate6th-worst

Philadelphia

How they play

They almost never blitz19.3%blitz rate2nd-lowest

and they play man43.6%man coverage rate2nd

and they rarely play Cover 322.2%Cover 3 rate3rd-lowest

and they go no-huddle19.3%no-huddle rate4th

Where they win and lose

They make throws hard49.4%completion rate allowed2nd

and they protect the football1.3%interception rate5th

and they shut offenses down-0.07EPA allowed a play7th

and they get pressure32.9%pressure rate8th

Washington tendencies →Philadelphia tendencies →

Angles that fire on this game

None of our frozen angles fire here. The slate is registered before the season and never added to mid-week, so an empty game stays empty.

Player trends that apply to this game

Terry McLaurinWR has 9 of his last 10 games in division games as a favorite with 50+ receiving yards.

9 of 10, 90% in this spot · 2023-2025

31 of 47, 66% in every other spot

Saquon BarkleyRB has 8 of his last 10 games in division games outdoors with a rushing touchdown.

8 of 10, 80% in this spot · 2023-2025

18 of 45, 40% in every other spot

Jalen HurtsQB has 7 of his last 10 games outdoors as an underdog with 2+ passing touchdowns.

7 of 10, 70% in this spot · 2025

3 of 18, 17% in every other spot

Dallas GoedertTE has 7 of his last 10 games outdoors with a receiving touchdown.

7 of 10, 70% in this spot · 2025

3 of 12, 25% in every other spot

The second number is the point. Everyone posts the first one.

Fantasy: who to start, and who they draw

Washington

Jacory Croskey-MerrittRB

37% of the carries · 33 red-zone touches

Deebo Samuel Sr.WR

22% of the targets · 17 red-zone touches

Zach ErtzTE

17% of the targets · 9 red-zone touches

Eagles are one of the hardest defenses for TEs, 31st

Philadelphia

Saquon BarkleyRB

62% of the carries · 52 red-zone touches

A.J. BrownWR

25% of the targets · 13 red-zone touches

Commanders give up more to WRs than almost anyone, 3rd

Dallas GoedertTE

18% of the targets · 15 red-zone touches

Commanders give up more to TEs than almost anyone, 3rd

Usage is last season's average share and red-zone work. The defense line is what that team actually allowed to the position, ranked against all 32. Neither is a projection.

The last time they played

2025 wk 18

Commanders at

Eagles24-17Commanders won, Commanders covered

2025 wk 16

Eagles at

Commanders29-18Eagles won, Eagles covered

2024 wk 21

Commanders at

Eagles23-55Eagles won, Eagles covered

2024 wk 16

Eagles at

Commanders33-36Commanders won, Commanders covered

2024 wk 11

Commanders at

Eagles18-26Eagles won, Eagles covered

Against the spread in these meetings: 3-2 to Eagles. Closing numbers, not openers.

Every meeting, with the lines →

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