New: Be a GM College lets you run your NIL budget, fight the portal, and play the season. Try it. →
FreeWhat's your angle? · type any trend and see its record in every NFL game since 1999Test an angle
Week 1 · Sunday Sep 13 · Final

CommandersatEagles

FinalWAS 22, PHI 24Eagles by 2
SpreadPHI -6Commanders covered
Total43.5went over, 46 points
OpenedPHI -5.5moved 0.5 points by kickoff

The run game. Expect the Eagles to give up on the run early.

Sunday: Eagles ran for 136 yards on 25 carries.

The model's reads, Under 44.5: it lost.

The depth charts as they stand today.

Commanders run defense, 12th, against a run game ranked 27th.

Longer bar, better unit.

Commanders with the ball

Commanders offenseEagles defense
19th
Passing
23rd
22nd
Run game
20th
26th
Pass rush
32nd
31st
Third down
11th
17th
Big plays
11th
5th
Turnovers
25th
19th
Red zone
13th

Eagles with the ball

Eagles offenseCommanders defense
24th
Passing
19th
27th
Run game
12th
20th
Pass rush
21st
16th
Third down
25th
31st
Big plays
8th
14th
Turnovers
23rd
9th
Red zone
31st

Ranks run 1st (best) to 32nd, 2026 through week 7 as they stood at kickoff, close-game snaps.

Commanders scored 22 against a team total of 18.75: over.

Commanders scored 22 against a team total of 18.75: over. the spread and total, split.

Eagles scored 24 against a team total of 24.75: under. the spread and total, split.

The situations on the schedule that fit this game.

This week · Commanders with the worse quarterback by two tiers in week 1 with the worse head coach by two tiers
69-37
this game200020052010201520202025
69 covered37 did notevery game since 1999, 65%; since 2021 21-6

The last time the Commanders were here, Sep 11, 2011: beat the Giants by 14 as a 1-point underdog.

Inside the luck line: 106 games, and shuffled results produce records like this one. Reading, not a bet; the lean is the Commanders.

This week · Eagles in week 1 with the better head coach by two tiers
91-129
this game200020052010201520202025
91 covered129 did notevery game since 1999, 41%; since 2021 14-36

The last time the Eagles were here, Sep 8, 2002: lost to the Titans by 3 as a 2-point underdog.

Inside the luck line: 220 games, and shuffled results produce records like this one. Reading, not a bet; the lean is the Commanders.

This week · Eagles with the better quarterback by two tiers in week 1
111-145
this game200020052010201520202025
111 covered145 did notevery game since 1999, 43%; since 2021 25-35

The last time the Eagles were here, Sep 12, 2004: beat the Giants by 14 as a 9.5-point favorite.

Inside the luck line: 256 games, and shuffled results produce records like this one. Reading, not a bet; the lean is the Commanders.

Searched this week: 1,157 spread situations and 92 on the total, every attribute on the schedule alone, in pairs and in triples, against every game since 1999. The luck line sits at z 3.92 on the spread and 3.37 on the total.

No player line on this game was archived with a read.

Nothing was on the official card for this game.