The forecast has gusts to 30 miles an hour. Not enough on its own to move a total, but it is real.
ATL at 
GBGB -6.5 / GB -2.55Sun 1:00 PM
CAR at 
CLECAR -2.5 / CAR -0.05Sun 1:00 PM
CIN at 
PITCIN -3.5 / PIT -1.89Sun 1:00 PM
HOU at 
INDHOU -1.5 / HOU -0.11Sun 1:00 PM
KC at 
MIAKC -10.5 / KC -4.89Sun 1:00 PM
LAC at 
BUFBUF -7 / BUF -6.25Sun 1:00 PM
NE at 
JAXJAX -3 / JAX -3.85Sun 1:00 PM
NYJ at 
DETDET -6.5 / DET -7.88Sun 1:00 PM
SEA at 
WASSEA -7.5 / SEA -2.52Sun 1:00 PM
TEN at 
NYGNYG -2.5 / NYG -4.42Sun 4:05 PM
ARI at 
SFSF -8.5 / SF -8.04Sun 4:05 PM
MIN at 
TBMIN -1.5 / TB -1.49Sun 4:25 PM
BAL at 
DALBAL -3.5 / BAL -0.91Sun 4:25 PM
LV at 
NONO -3 / NO -1.6Sun 8:20 PM
LA at 
DENLA -2.5 / DEN -1.93Mon 8:15 PM
PHI at 
CHIPHI -4.5 / CHI -0.75Depth charts and who's out
Who's out
Chargers
Charlie Kolar TEForearmOUT
Dalvin Tomlinson DTHamstringDOUBTFUL
Kayode Awosika GLower LegDOUBTFUL
David Njoku TELower LegIR
KeAndre Lambert-Smith WRHamstringIR
5 more
Brenen Thompson WRQuadricepsQ
Elijah Molden CBHamstringQ
Rodney Shelley CBHamstringQ
Trey Pipkins III OTKneeQ
Tuli Tuipulotu LBHamstringQ
Bills
Skyler Bell WRCoach's DecisionOUT
Jalon Kilgore SCoach's DecisionOUT
Jude Bowry OTCoach's DecisionOUT
DJ Moore WRShoulder - AC JointQ
Keon Coleman WRAnkleQ
4 more
Ar'maj Reed-Adams GElbowQ
Ed Oliver DTHipQ
Jordan Hancock CBHamstringQ
T.J. Sanders DTQ
Every read on this page assumes the man is on the field. Designations as of 2026-09-20.
The game
Bills ahead means Cook carries it late and Allen throws less; Chargers chasing means Herbert throws, and McConkey, Johnston and Gadsden get the volume.
LAC has to
Go get the ball
Chargers take it away 3.2%, 2nd. Bills throw picks 1.8%, 17th-most.
BUF has to
Find Knox against zone
0.69 EPA a target vs zone, 4th of 106. Chargers play zone 77.1%, 6th.
The model's play
Underdog vs a team looking ahead to a division game
Won 52.0% of 1,906 past bets like it. The worst case we can be 80% sure of is 50.5%, which is still short of the 52.4% break-even.
Weather at kickoff
Best price
BUF -7 -110 at MyBookie.ag, 20 booksbest on the board LAC +7 -105 at BetMGM, 20 booksLAC +7.5 -115at Hard Rock BetThe matchup
Chargers with the ballBills: squeeze them.
Bills10thBills4thBills5thBills8thplay fast 3rdrarely play Cover 3 2nd-lowestBills with the ballBills: find Knox against zone.
Chargers12thChargers2ndrun it more than almost anyone 3rd-loweststay under center 3rd-lowestplay light boxes 1stalmost never blitz 5th-lowestNot a key: pace. Chargers 3rd and Bills 11th in plays a game. Both play fast, so the total leans over.
Ranks are 2025 regular season, 1st to 32nd, 1st best at the job either side. top 8 bottom 8
The game plan in words, and every rank (2025 regular season)
Chargers with the ballWhat they like to do Harbaugh's Chargers play fast (3rd).
Where they win and lose They get sacked (5th-worst).
What the Bills defense brings They rarely play cover 3 (2nd-lowest) and they win early downs (3rd), make throws hard (4th) and get pressure (5th).
What works against them Bring pressure: they take sacks (5th-worst).
Where the two meet Bills: squeeze them. Bills are 10th-best in EPA allowed. Chargers are 8th-worst in EPA a play. Bills: go get the ball. Bills take it away 2.4%, 8th. Chargers throw picks 2.2%, 12th-most.
Bills with the ballWhat they like to do McDermott's Bills run it more than almost anyone (3rd-lowest) and stay under center (3rd-lowest).
Where they win and lose They run it well (1st), move the ball (3rd) and hit explosive passes (4th).
What the Chargers defense brings They play light boxes (1st), almost never blitz (5th-lowest) and almost never play man (6th-lowest) and they take the ball away (2nd), win early downs (6th) and get sacks (6th).
What works against them Nothing on the ledger stands out; it comes down to the matchup below.
Where the two meet Bills: find Knox against zone. 0.69 EPA a target vs zone, 4th of 106. Chargers play zone 77.1%, 6th. Bills: run into light boxes. Bills pass only 51.0%, 3rd-fewest. Chargers show a light box 34.1%, 1st-most.
Los Angeles
Buffalo
The bets
What the model likes
4 more
The information
Player angles
Also posted, with no read either way: Josh Allen 238.5 passing yards (over in 17 of his 34, 2024-2026), Omarion Hampton 61.5 rushing yards (over in 4 of his 11, 2025-2026), Josh Allen 34.5 rushing yards (over in 16 of his 34, 2024-2026), Justin Herbert 19.5 rushing yards (over in 18 of his 35, 2024-2026), Khalil Shakir 39.5 receiving yards (over in 20 of his 33, 2024-2026), Oronde Gadsden II 36.5 receiving yards (over in 7 of his 17, 2025-2026), Quentin Johnston 35.5 receiving yards (over in 18 of his 30, 2024-2026), James Cook 11.5 receiving yards (over in 18 of his 35, 2024-2026), Omarion Hampton 10.5 receiving yards (over in 7 of his 11, 2025-2026), Dawson Knox 9.5 receiving yards (over in 23 of his 32, 2024-2026), Khalil Shakir 4.5 receptions (over in 18 of his 33, 2024-2026), DJ Moore 3.5 receptions (over in 23 of his 36, 2024-2026), Quentin Johnston 3.5 receptions (over in 14 of his 30, 2024-2026), Dawson Knox 1.5 receptions (over in 17 of his 32, 2024-2026), James Cook 1.5 receptions (over in 18 of his 35, 2024-2026) and Omarion Hampton 1.5 receptions (over in 7 of his 11, 2025-2026).
Player trends
Game angles
First quarter: Bills -3 and a total of 10.
Game trends
A lean is where a record points. Only a record past the luck line is a bet; the rest is reading. The bar's tick is the line to beat. Confidence runs from 50, a coin flip, to 100.
Every read in full: the scores, the story and the receipts
The player lines
Under 56.5 receiving yards for Dalton Kincaid leads 27 lines. On 8, the player's history and the matchup agree.
Why 78
- The story With it: the Bills lead big, so Allen throws less; the wind leans the passing game down.
- The evidence 22 of 27 (81%) against a 52% baseline, 70% after shrinking for sample size.
- Agreement 1 other signal on the same side.
- The grid No held angle applies to this line.
- The matchup LAC allow 16% less than league to TEs, 27th most.
- The price -115, which needs 53% to break even.
- Where it went Unproven and priced at minus money, with no 1-unit bet on the game to ride alongside.
Why 70
- The story Against it: the Chargers chase, so Herbert throws; a 50.5 total is a throwing script.
- The evidence 14 of 18 (78%) against a 52% baseline, 63% after shrinking for sample size.
- Agreement 1 other signal on the same side.
- The grid No held angle applies to this line.
- The matchup BUF allow 12% less than league to WRs, 27th most.
- The price -120, which needs 55% to break even.
Why 66
- The story Against it: the Chargers chase, so Herbert throws; a 50.5 total is a throwing script.
- The evidence 10 of 15 (67%) against a 42% baseline, 50% after shrinking for sample size.
- Agreement 1 other signal on the same side.
- The grid No held angle applies to this line.
- The matchup BUF allow 12% less than league to WRs, 27th most.
- The price -115, which needs 53% to break even.
See all 27 player lines
Why 64
- The story Against it: the Bills lead, so Cook carries it late; the weather leans the running game up.
- The evidence 11 of 18 (61%) against a 35% baseline, 46% after shrinking for sample size.
- Agreement No other signal on this side.
- The grid No held angle applies to this line.
- The matchup LAC allow 11% less than league to RBs, 24th most.
- The price -115, which needs 53% to break even.
Why 62
- The story Against it: the Chargers chase, so Herbert throws; a 50.5 total is a throwing script.
- The evidence 6 of 8 (75%) against a 44% baseline, 52% after shrinking for sample size.
- Agreement No other signal on this side.
- The grid No held angle applies to this line.
- The matchup BUF allow 18% less than league to QBs, 32nd most.
- The price -115, which needs 53% to break even.
Why 60
- The story With it: the Bills lead big, so Allen throws less; the wind leans the passing game down.
- The evidence 15 of 19 (79%) against a 62% baseline, 65% after shrinking for sample size.
- Agreement 1 other signal on the same side.
- The grid No held angle applies to this line.
- The matchup LAC allow 17% less than league to TEs, 27th most.
- The price -135, which needs 57% to break even.
Why 58
- The story Against it: the Chargers chase, so Herbert throws; a 50.5 total is a throwing script.
- The evidence 11 of 17 (65%) against a 52% baseline, 49% after shrinking for sample size.
- Agreement No other signal on this side.
- The grid No held angle applies to this line.
- The matchup BUF allow 37% less than league to TEs, 32nd most.
- The price -145, which needs 59% to break even.
Why 56
- The story With it: the weather leans the running game up; the Chargers play fast.
- The evidence 5 of 7 (71%) against a 44% baseline, 47% after shrinking for sample size.
- Agreement No other signal on this side.
- The grid No held angle applies to this line.
- The matchup BUF allow 11% more than league to RBs, 7th most.
- The price -120, which needs 55% to break even.
Why 74
- The story Against it: the Chargers chase, so Herbert throws; a 50.5 total is a throwing script.
- The evidence 7 of 10 (70%) against a 33% baseline, 50% after shrinking for sample size.
- Agreement 1 other signal on the same side.
- The grid No held angle applies to this line.
- The matchup BUF allow 9% less than league to WRs, 26th most.
- The price +100, which needs 50% to break even.
Why 62
- The story Against it: the Chargers chase, so Herbert throws; a 50.5 total is a throwing script.
- The evidence 13 of 18 (72%) against a 52% baseline, 57% after shrinking for sample size.
- Agreement 1 other signal on the same side.
- The grid No held angle applies to this line.
- The matchup BUF allow 9% less than league to WRs, 26th most.
- The price +105, which needs 49% to break even.
Why 51
- The story With it: the Bills lead big, so Allen throws less; the wind leans the passing game down.
- The evidence 7 of 11 (64%) against a 48% baseline, 44% after shrinking for sample size.
- Agreement No other signal on this side.
- The grid No held angle applies to this line.
- The matchup LAC allow 5% less than league to WRs, 19th most.
- The price -115, which needs 53% to break even.
Lines from Bovada as of 2026-09-25. A record is the player against the consensus closing line, every game since 2023, graded on the box score. Overs hit 46 to 48% league-wide; that is the bar, not 50. "Player and matchup agree" means he clears this number 60%+ in the situation this game puts him in AND the opponent allows 10%+ over league to his position. None of these has a graded record yet.
Player trends
Allen: 8 of his last 10 games at home with 2+ passing touchdowns.
Josh AllenQB at home with 2+ passing touchdownsWhy 64
- The story Against it: the Bills lead big, so Allen throws less; the wind leans the passing game down.
- The evidence 8 of 10 (80%) against a 52% baseline, 60% after shrinking for sample size.
- Agreement 1 other signal on the same side.
James CookRB as a favorite with 50+ rushing yardsWhy 60
- The story With it: the Bills lead, so Cook carries it late; the weather leans the running game up.
- The evidence 8 of 10 (80%) against a 56% baseline, 60% after shrinking for sample size.
- Agreement 1 other signal on the same side.
How this is graded
The second number is the point. Everyone posts the first one.
Team trends
The last team here, the Titans, Sep 17, 2006: lost to the SD by 33 as a 12-point underdog.
Inside the luck line: 39 games, and shuffled results produce records like this one. Reading, not a bet; the lean is the Bills.
The last time the Bills were here, Oct 16, 2016: beat the 49ers by 29 as a 7.5-point favorite.
Inside the luck line: 143 games, and shuffled results produce records like this one. Reading, not a bet; the lean is the Chargers.
See all 8 team trends
The last time the Bills were here, Sep 28, 2008: beat the STL by 17 as a 8.5-point favorite.
Inside the luck line: 125 games, and shuffled results produce records like this one. Reading, not a bet; the lean is the Bills.
Buffalo have gone under with a total of 48 or higher with extra restOn totals of 48.5 to 54; this game is 50.5, inside that.
Why 61
- The evidence 6 of 8 (75%) against a 50% baseline, 52% after shrinking for sample size.
- Agreement 3 other signals on the same side.
Los Angeles have gone under outdoorsOn totals of 37 to 45.5; this game is 50.5, outside that, so it does not speak to this total.
Why 59
- The evidence 13 of 18 (72%) against a 57% baseline, 57% after shrinking for sample size.
- Agreement 3 other signals on the same side.
Los Angeles have gone under as a road underdogOn totals of 36 to 54; this game is 50.5, inside that.
Why 59
- The evidence 7 of 9 (78%) against a 59% baseline, 57% after shrinking for sample size.
- Agreement 3 other signals on the same side.
Los Angeles have gone under as an underdog after a lossOn totals of 36 to 54; this game is 50.5, inside that.
Why 59
- The evidence 6 of 8 (75%) against a 60% baseline, 52% after shrinking for sample size.
- Agreement 3 other signals on the same side.
Against the spread and the total, as far back as the current head coach and starting quarterback go (at least three seasons; each card says how far, and what changed). The second bar is the same team everywhere else, which is the number that tells you whether the first one means anything.
Model plays carry a live record. Prop spots and trends are situational reads, and no prop verdict has a graded record yet. When two sections disagree, both stay.
History
Last meetings
- 2023 wk 16Bills at ChargersBills won, Chargers covered24-22
- 2020 wk 12Chargers at BillsBills won, Bills covered17-27
Against the spread in these meetings: 1-1 to Bills, on closing numbers.
The card
Betting PassThe number. The market has the Bills by 7 at a total of 50.5: Bills 28.8, Chargers 21.8 on paper.
How it plays. The total of 50.5 is high. Chargers play fast (3rd in plays a game). The forecast has gusts to 30, which leans the passing game down. The ball goes to the ground, so Hampton and Cook carry it more; the books raise rushing lines for weather (rushing overs 49% since 2019) and do not cut passing lines enough (passing overs 33% in wind), so the passing unders are the edge and the rushing overs are the story at a fair price.
What changed. Chargers: DT Dalvin Tomlinson doubtful; 1 starting linemen out. Bills: WR DJ Moore questionable; WR Keon Coleman questionable.
Model favorites
One favorite from 32 signals: a player line. None sized at this price. Data as of: forecast Fri 8:00 AM ET; injuries Fri 11:49 AM ET; model Fri 8:03 AM ET.
A player line
3 reasons forHow the score works
Score is how much we trust a bet. 50 is a coin flip; the number is how far past it the evidence pushes: reasons for minus reasons against, and a reason from something with a years-long record counts more than a trend. Units follow it: a bet backed by a tracked record is 1 unit, 1.5 at 80 or more; a bet whose logic is sound but unproven is half a unit, and only at plus money or alongside a 1-unit bet on the same game. Click a bet for its reasons.