New: Be a GM College lets you run your NIL budget, fight the portal, and play the season. Try it. →
This weekThe board · the model's plays and the triggers, graded in publicSee the board
Betting HQ · Week 3 · Sun 1:00 PM ET

JetsatLions

Betting HQ→Player angles→
Ford Field · indoorsOpened Lions -9.5Total opened 45.5
KickoffSun 1:00 PMFOX
MarketDET -6.5the posted spread
Our numberDET -9.172.7 more than the market
Total48.5the posted total
Model playNone on this gamethe model has no edge here
Thu 8:15 PMATL at GBGB -6.5 / GB -2.55Sun 1:00 PMCAR at CLECAR -2.5 / CAR -0.05Sun 1:00 PMCIN at PITCIN -3.5 / PIT -1.89Sun 1:00 PMHOU at INDHOU -1.5 / HOU -0.11Sun 1:00 PMKC at MIAKC -10.5 / KC -4.89Sun 1:00 PMLAC at BUFBUF -7 / BUF -6.25Sun 1:00 PMNE at JAXJAX -3 / JAX -3.85Sun 1:00 PMNYJ at DETDET -6.5 / DET -9.17Sun 1:00 PMSEA at WASSEA -7.5 / SEA -2.75Sun 1:00 PMTEN at NYGNYG -2.5 / NYG -4.42Sun 4:05 PMARI at SFSF -8.5 / SF -8.04Sun 4:05 PMMIN at TBMIN -1.5 / TB -1.49Sun 4:25 PMBAL at DALBAL -3.5 / BAL -0.91Sun 4:25 PMLV at NONO -3 / NO -1.6Sun 8:20 PMLA at DENLA -2.5 / DEN -1.93Mon 8:15 PMPHI at CHIPHI -4.5 / CHI -0.75

Depth charts and who's out

Who's out

Jets

6 more

Lions

5 more

Every read on this page assumes the man is on the field. Designations as of 2026-09-20.

New York depth chart→Detroit depth chart→

The game

Lions ahead means Gibbs carries it late; Jets chasing means Smith throws, and Wilson, Mitchell and Sadiq get the volume.

NYJ has to

Change the picture on Williams

He is 0.46 against zone. Jets play it 59.9%, 27th.

DET has to

Run the offense

Lions are 7th in EPA a play. Jets are 1st-worst in EPA allowed. Nothing fancy needed.

The model's play

No play

Our number sits too close to the market to bet.

Best price

DET -6.5 -110 at DraftKings, 20 booksbest on the board
NYJ +6.5 +100 at LowVig.ag, 20 booksNYJ +7 -114at BetRivers

The matchup

Jets with the ball

Lions: load the box.

Jets offenseLions defense
29thMoving the ballLions14th
28thThrowing itLions8th
30thProtection vs the rushLions15th
22ndHolding on to itLions13th
How they playplay man 4th
Lions with the ball

Lions: find Williams against man.

Lions offenseJets defense
7thMoving the ballLions32nd
4thThrowing itLions20th
13thProtection vs the rushLions30th
3rdHolding on to itLions32nd
How they playstay under center 4th-lowestrarely play Cover 3 5th-lowestplay man 6th

Not a key: the Jets blitz (12th) on Goff. He drops when blitzed like everyone, but from 4th in the league.

Ranks are 2025 regular season, 1st to 32nd, 1st best at the job either side. top 8 bottom 8

The game plan in words, and every rank (2025 regular season)
Jets with the ball

What they like to do Glenn's Jets are middle of the league in how they play.

Where they win and lose They never hit a deep one (worst), cannot complete a pass (2nd-worst) and get sacked (3rd-worst).

What the Lions defense brings They play man (4th).

What works against them Keep it in front: they do not hit deep shots (worst). Play tight and make every throw hard (2nd-worst).

Where the two meet Lions: load the box. Lions load the box 7.8%, 2nd-most. Jets run it: 55.1% pass rate, 11th-fewest.

Lions with the ball

What they like to do Campbell's Lions stay under center (4th-lowest).

Where they win and lose They protect the football (3rd), throw it well (4th) and complete everything (5th).

What the Jets defense brings They rarely play cover 3 (5th-lowest) and play man (6th) and they give it up (worst), never take it away (worst) and cannot get pressure (3rd-worst).

What works against them Nothing on the ledger stands out; it comes down to the matchup below.

Where the two meet Lions: find Williams against man. 0.70 EPA a target vs man, 6th of 106. Jets play man 40.1%, 6th. Lions: give Goff a clean pocket. 0.45 EPA a dropback clean, 3rd of 36. Jets get pressure 23.9%, 3rd-lowest.

New York

How they play
They rarely play Cover 322.3%Cover 3 rate5th-lowest
and they play man40.1%man coverage rate6th
and they live in shotgun73.1%shotgun rate8th
Where they win and lose
They never hit a deep one4.7%explosive pass rateworst
and they give it up+0.29EPA allowed a playworst
and they never take it away0.0%interception rateworst
and they cannot complete a pass53.6%completion rate2nd-worst

Detroit

How they play
They stay under center51.5%shotgun rate4th-lowest
and they play man40.8%man coverage rate4th
Where they win and lose
They protect the football1.3%interception rate3rd
and they throw it well+0.17EPA a pass4th
and they complete everything63.6%completion rate5th
and they hit explosive passes10.7%explosive pass rate6th
New York tendencies→Detroit tendencies→

The bets

What the model likes

Garrett Wilson WR NYJ Over 66.5 receiving yards (-115)no stake yet: the prop rules have no graded recordConfidence 80
on the road as an underdog · 5 of 19 everywhere else · DET allow 16% more than league to WRs, 6th most
5 of 7on the road as an underdog
Breece Hall RB NYJ Under 21.5 receiving yards (-115)no stake yet: the prop rules have no graded recordConfidence 62
on the road as an underdog · 12 of 23 everywhere else · DET allow 25% less than league to RBs, 30th most
7 of 11on the road as an underdog
Breece Hall RB NYJ Under 3.5 receptions (-170)no stake yet: the prop rules have no graded recordConfidence 60
as an underdog · 7 of 13 everywhere else · DET allow 15% less than league to RBs, 24th most
14 of 21as an underdog
Jahmyr Gibbs RB DET Under 4.5 receptions (-145)no stake yet: the prop rules have no graded recordConfidence 58
NYJ allow 17% less than league to RBs, 26th most
24 of 36games

The information

Player angles

Garrett Wilson WR NYJ Over 5.5 receptions (-120)Confidence 78
on the road as an underdog · 5 of 19 everywhere else · DET allow 6% more than league to WRs, 9th most
7 of 7on the road as an underdog
Amon-Ra St. Brown WR DET Under 7.5 receptions (-150)Confidence 72
as a favorite · 3 of 8 everywhere else · NYJ allow 4% less than league to WRs, 21st most
18 of 28as a favorite
Amon-Ra St. Brown WR DET Under 79.5 receiving yards (-115)Confidence 62
as a favorite · 4 of 8 everywhere else · NYJ allow 5% less than league to WRs, 21st most
19 of 28as a favorite
Breece Hall RB NYJ Under 57.5 rushing yards (-115)Confidence 60
on the road · 8 of 18 everywhere else · DET allow 4% less than league to RBs, 22nd most
10 of 16on the road

Also posted, with no read either way: Jared Goff 258.5 passing yards (over in 19 of his 36, 2024-2026), Geno Smith 224.5 passing yards (over in 16 of his 34, 2024-2026), Jahmyr Gibbs 87.5 rushing yards (over in 12 of his 36, 2024-2026), Jameson Williams 51.5 receiving yards (over in 19 of his 34, 2024-2026), Adonai Mitchell 48.5 receiving yards (over in 6 of his 35, 2024-2026), Sam LaPorta 45.5 receiving yards (over in 15 of his 27, 2024-2026), Jahmyr Gibbs 32.5 receiving yards (over in 15 of his 36, 2024-2026), Kenyon Sadiq 25.5 receiving yards, Isaiah Williams 20.5 receiving yards, Sam LaPorta 4.5 receptions (over in 12 of his 27, 2024-2026), Adonai Mitchell 3.5 receptions (over in 5 of his 35, 2024-2026), Jameson Williams 3.5 receptions (over in 20 of his 34, 2024-2026), Isaiah Williams 2.5 receptions and Kenyon Sadiq 2.5 receptions.

Player trends

Jared Goff QB DET 2+ passing touchdownsConfidence 71
as a favorite · 8 of 23 everywhere else, 2025-2026
7 of 10last 10 as a favorite
Jahmyr Gibbs RB DET a rushing touchdownConfidence 58
at home · 11 of 26 everywhere else, 2024-2026
7 of 10last 10 at home
Jared Goff QB DET 250+ passing yardsConfidence 54
as a favorite · 12 of 23 everywhere else, 2025-2026
7 of 10last 10 as a favorite
Amon-Ra St. Brown WR DET 50+ receiving yardsConfidence 50
indoors · 16 of 22 everywhere else, 2025-2026
9 of 10last 10 indoors

Game angles

Lean Jets +6.5reading, not a betConfidence 55
Jets with the worse quarterback by two tiers indoors with the worse head coach by two tiers. Every game since 1999.
246-180covered, did not
Lean Jets +6.5reading, not a betConfidence 54
Lions with an elite quarterback indoors with the better head coach by two tiers. Every game since 1999.
160-215covered, did not
Lean Jets +6.5reading, not a betConfidence 52
Jets with a bottom-tier quarterback without their top tight end. Every game since 1999.
95-72covered, did not
Lean Over 48.5reading, not a betConfidence 50
The total in the first four weeks with a total of 48 or higher indoors. Every game since 1999.
60-47over, under
2 more game angles
Lean Jets +6.5reading, not a betConfidence 64
Underdogs have covered 27 of 40 in week 3 with a total of 48 or higher; usually 51%, 2016-2026.
27 of 40in this spot
Lean Jets +6.5reading, not a betConfidence 67
Underdogs of under 7 have covered 24 of 34 in week 3 with a total of 48 or higher; usually 51%, 2016-2026.
24 of 34in this spot

First quarter: Lions -2.5 and a total of 9.5.

Game trends

Lean Over 48.5Confidence 80
Lions have gone over 13 of 13 as a favorite with extra rest; 35 of 72 everywhere else, 2021-2026, Campbell and Goff.
13 of 13gone over
Lean Over 48.5Confidence 80
Lions have gone over 13 of 15 indoors with extra rest; 35 of 70 everywhere else, 2021-2026, Campbell and Goff.
13 of 15gone over
Lean Over 48.5Confidence 68
Lions have gone over 21 of 30 as a home favorite; 27 of 55 everywhere else, 2021-2026, Campbell and Goff.
21 of 30gone over

A lean is where a record points. Only a record past the luck line is a bet; the rest is reading. The bar's tick is the line to beat. Confidence runs from 50, a coin flip, to 100.

Every read in full: the scores, the story and the receipts

The player lines

Over 66.5 receiving yards for Garrett Wilson leads 22 lines. On 4, the player's history and the matchup agree.

OVER 66.5 receiving yards · Garrett Wilson WR (-115)
5 of 7 over on the road as an underdog · 5 of 19 elsewhere
DET allow 16% more than league to WRs, 6th most
With the storythe Jets chase, so Smith throws; a 48.5 total is a throwing scriptUnproven and priced at minus money, with no 1-unit bet on the game to ride alongside.
Why 80
  1. The story With it: the Jets chase, so Smith throws; a 48.5 total is a throwing script.
  2. The evidence 5 of 7 (71%) against a 26% baseline, 47% after shrinking for sample size.
  3. Agreement 1 other signal on the same side.
  4. The grid No held angle applies to this line.
  5. The matchup DET allow 16% more than league to WRs, 6th most.
  6. The price -115, which needs 53% to break even.
  7. Where it went Unproven and priced at minus money, with no 1-unit bet on the game to ride alongside.
80
score
UNDER 21.5 receiving yards · Breece Hall RB (-115)
7 of 11 under on the road as an underdog · 12 of 23 elsewhere
DET allow 25% less than league to RBs, 30th most
Against the storythe Jets chase, so Smith throws; a 48.5 total is a throwing script
Why 62
  1. The story Against it: the Jets chase, so Smith throws; a 48.5 total is a throwing script.
  2. The evidence 7 of 11 (64%) against a 52% baseline, 44% after shrinking for sample size.
  3. Agreement 2 other signals on the same side.
  4. The grid No held angle applies to this line.
  5. The matchup DET allow 25% less than league to RBs, 30th most.
  6. The price -115, which needs 53% to break even.
62
score
UNDER 3.5 receptions · Breece Hall RB (-170)
14 of 21 under as an underdog · 7 of 13 elsewhere
DET allow 15% less than league to RBs, 24th most
Against the storythe Jets chase, so Smith throws; a 48.5 total is a throwing script
Why 60
  1. The story Against it: the Jets chase, so Smith throws; a 48.5 total is a throwing script.
  2. The evidence 14 of 21 (67%) against a 54% baseline, 53% after shrinking for sample size.
  3. Agreement 2 other signals on the same side.
  4. The grid No held angle applies to this line.
  5. The matchup DET allow 15% less than league to RBs, 24th most.
  6. The price -170, which needs 63% to break even.
60
score
See all 22 player lines
UNDER 4.5 receptions · Jahmyr Gibbs RB (-145)
24 of 36 under, 2024-2026 · 52% league-wide
NYJ allow 17% less than league to RBs, 26th most
Against the storya 48.5 total is a throwing script
Why 58
  1. The story Against it: a 48.5 total is a throwing script.
  2. The evidence 24 of 36 (67%) against a 52% baseline, 56% after shrinking for sample size.
  3. Agreement No other signal on this side.
  4. The grid No held angle applies to this line.
  5. The matchup NYJ allow 17% less than league to RBs, 26th most.
  6. The price -145, which needs 59% to break even.
58
score
OVER 5.5 receptions · Garrett Wilson WR (-120)
7 of 7 over on the road as an underdog · 5 of 19 elsewhere
DET allow 6% more than league to WRs, 9th most
With the storythe Jets chase, so Smith throws; a 48.5 total is a throwing script
Why 78
  1. The story With it: the Jets chase, so Smith throws; a 48.5 total is a throwing script.
  2. The evidence 7 of 7 (100%) against a 26% baseline, 81% after shrinking for sample size.
  3. Agreement 1 other signal on the same side.
  4. The grid No held angle applies to this line.
  5. The matchup DET allow 6% more than league to WRs, 9th most.
  6. The price -120, which needs 55% to break even.
78
score
UNDER 7.5 receptions · Amon-Ra St. Brown WR (-150)
18 of 28 under as a favorite · 3 of 8 elsewhere
NYJ allow 4% less than league to WRs, 21st most
Against the storya 48.5 total is a throwing script; Jets are without Fitzpatrick in the secondary
Why 72
  1. The story Against it: a 48.5 total is a throwing script; Jets are without Fitzpatrick in the secondary.
  2. The evidence 18 of 28 (64%) against a 38% baseline, 52% after shrinking for sample size.
  3. Agreement 1 other signal on the same side.
  4. The grid No held angle applies to this line.
  5. The matchup NYJ allow 4% less than league to WRs, 21st most.
  6. The price -150, which needs 60% to break even.
72
score
UNDER 79.5 receiving yards · Amon-Ra St. Brown WR (-115)
19 of 28 under as a favorite · 4 of 8 elsewhere
NYJ allow 5% less than league to WRs, 21st most
Against the storya 48.5 total is a throwing script; Jets are without Fitzpatrick in the secondary
Why 62
  1. The story Against it: a 48.5 total is a throwing script; Jets are without Fitzpatrick in the secondary.
  2. The evidence 19 of 28 (68%) against a 50% baseline, 56% after shrinking for sample size.
  3. Agreement 1 other signal on the same side.
  4. The grid No held angle applies to this line.
  5. The matchup NYJ allow 5% less than league to WRs, 21st most.
  6. The price -115, which needs 53% to break even.
62
score
UNDER 57.5 rushing yards · Breece Hall RB (-115)
10 of 16 under on the road · 8 of 18 elsewhere
DET allow 4% less than league to RBs, 22nd most
With the storythe Jets chase, so Hall carries it less
Why 60
  1. The story With it: the Jets chase, so Hall carries it less.
  2. The evidence 10 of 16 (62%) against a 44% baseline, 47% after shrinking for sample size.
  3. Agreement 2 other signals on the same side.
  4. The grid No held angle applies to this line.
  5. The matchup DET allow 4% less than league to RBs, 22nd most.
  6. The price -115, which needs 53% to break even.
60
score
258.5 passing yards · Jared Goff QB (-115)
224.5 passing yards · Geno Smith QB (-115)
87.5 rushing yards · Jahmyr Gibbs RB (-125)
51.5 receiving yards · Jameson Williams WR (-115)
48.5 receiving yards · Adonai Mitchell WR (-115)
45.5 receiving yards · Sam LaPorta TE (-115)
32.5 receiving yards · Jahmyr Gibbs RB (-115)
25.5 receiving yards · Kenyon Sadiq TE (-115)
20.5 receiving yards · Isaiah Williams (-115)
4.5 receptions · Sam LaPorta TE (-110)
3.5 receptions · Adonai Mitchell WR (-120)
3.5 receptions · Jameson Williams WR (-145)
2.5 receptions · Isaiah Williams (+110)
2.5 receptions · Kenyon Sadiq TE (-150)

Lines from Bovada as of 2026-09-25. A record is the player against the consensus closing line, every game since 2023, graded on the box score. Overs hit 46 to 48% league-wide; that is the bar, not 50. "Player and matchup agree" means he clears this number 60%+ in the situation this game puts him in AND the opponent allows 10%+ over league to his position. None of these has a graded record yet.

Player lines, every game →

Player trends

Brown: 9 of his last 10 games indoors with 50+ receiving yards.

9of 10
Amon-Ra St. BrownWR indoors with 50+ receiving yards
2025-2026 · 16 of 22 elsewhere
With the storya 48.5 total is a throwing script; Jets are without Fitzpatrick in the secondary
Why 50
  1. The story With it: a 48.5 total is a throwing script; Jets are without Fitzpatrick in the secondary.
  2. The evidence 9 of 10 (90%) against a 73% baseline, 72% after shrinking for sample size.
  3. Agreement No other signal on this side.
Share this card
How this is graded

The second number is the point. Everyone posts the first one.

Player trends, every game →

Team trends

This week · Jets with the worse quarterback by two tiers indoors with the worse head coach by two tiers
246-180
this game200020052010201520202025
246 covered180 did notevery game since 1999, 58%; since 2021 52-46

The last time the Jets were here, Nov 12, 2000: lost to the Colts by 8 as a 6-point underdog.

Inside the luck line: 426 games, and shuffled results produce records like this one. Reading, not a bet; the lean is the Jets.

This week · Lions with an elite quarterback indoors with the better head coach by two tiers
160-215
this game200020052010201520202025
160 covered215 did notevery game since 1999, 43%; since 2021 34-39

The last time the Lions were here, Dec 26, 2020: lost to the Buccaneers by 40 as a 12-point underdog.

Inside the luck line: 375 games, and shuffled results produce records like this one. Reading, not a bet; the lean is the Jets.

See all 8 team trends
This week · Jets with a bottom-tier quarterback without their top tight end
95-72
this game200020052010201520202025
95 covered72 did notevery game since 1999, 57%; since 2021 9-12

The last time the Jets were here, Oct 28, 2012: lost to the Dolphins by 21 as a 1-point favorite.

Inside the luck line: 167 games, and shuffled results produce records like this one. Reading, not a bet; the lean is the Jets.

This week · The total in the first four weeks with a total of 48 or higher indoors
60-47
this game200020052010201520202025
60 went over47 stayed underevery game since 1999, 56%; since 2021 17-17

Inside the luck line: 107 games, and shuffled results produce records like this one. Reading, not a bet; the lean is the over.

Searched this week: 2,159 spread situations and 116 on the total, every attribute on the schedule alone, in pairs and in triples, against every game since 1999. The luck line sits at z 4.11 on the spread and 3.44 on the total.

13of 13
Detroit have gone over as a favorite with extra rest
2021-2026, Campbell and Goff · 35 of 72 elsewhere

On totals of 46.5 to 52.5; this game is 48.5, inside that.

Why 80
  1. The evidence 13 of 13 (100%) against a 49% baseline, 89% after shrinking for sample size.
  2. Agreement 2 other signals on the same side.
80
score
13of 15
Detroit have gone over indoors with extra rest
2021-2026, Campbell and Goff · 35 of 70 elsewhere

On totals of 46.5 to 54.5; this game is 48.5, inside that.

Why 80
  1. The evidence 13 of 15 (87%) against a 50% baseline, 72% after shrinking for sample size.
  2. Agreement 2 other signals on the same side.
80
score
21of 30
Detroit have gone over as a home favorite
2021-2026, Campbell and Goff · 27 of 55 elsewhere

On totals of 46 to 54.5; this game is 48.5, inside that.

Why 68
  1. The evidence 21 of 30 (70%) against a 49% baseline, 58% after shrinking for sample size.
  2. Agreement 2 other signals on the same side.
68
score

Against the spread and the total, as far back as the current head coach and starting quarterback go (at least three seasons; each card says how far, and what changed). The second bar is the same team everywhere else, which is the number that tells you whether the first one means anything.

Game trends, every game →

Model plays carry a live record. Prop spots and trends are situational reads, and no prop verdict has a graded record yet. When two sections disagree, both stay.

History

Last meetings

  • 2022 wk 15Lions at JetsLions won, Lions covered20-17

Against the spread in these meetings: 1-0 to Lions, on closing numbers.

Build this angle in the Angle Finder→All games this week→

The card

Betting Pass
The story

The number. The market has the Lions by 6.5 at a total of 48.5: Lions 27.5, Jets 21 on paper.

How it plays. The total of 48.5 is high. Indoors.

What changed. Jets: WR Adonai Mitchell questionable; TE Mason Taylor out; FS Minkah Fitzpatrick out; RDT David Onyemata ir; SLB Kiko Mauigoa out. Lions: no starter on the report.

Model favorites

One favorite from 23 signals: a player line. None sized at this price. Data as of: forecast Fri 12:00 PM ET; injuries Fri 11:49 AM ET; model Fri 12:04 PM ET.

80

A player line

3 reasons for
no bet
Unlock the card · $6 a monthThe 1 bet, scored, sized and priced. Every angle below stays open.
How the score works

Score is how much we trust a bet. 50 is a coin flip; the number is how far past it the evidence pushes: reasons for minus reasons against, and a reason from something with a years-long record counts more than a trend. Units follow it: a bet backed by a tracked record is 1 unit, 1.5 at 80 or more; a bet whose logic is sound but unproven is half a unit, and only at plus money or alongside a 1-unit bet on the same game. Click a bet for its reasons.