ATL at 
GBGB -6.5 / GB -2.55Sun 1:00 PM
CAR at 
CLECAR -2.5 / CAR -0.05Sun 1:00 PM
CIN at 
PITCIN -3.5 / PIT -1.89Sun 1:00 PM
HOU at 
INDHOU -1.5 / HOU -0.11Sun 1:00 PM
KC at 
MIAKC -10.5 / KC -4.89Sun 1:00 PM
LAC at 
BUFBUF -7 / BUF -6.25Sun 1:00 PM
NE at 
JAXJAX -3 / JAX -3.85Sun 1:00 PM
NYJ at 
DETDET -6.5 / DET -9.17Sun 1:00 PM
SEA at 
WASSEA -7.5 / SEA -2.75Sun 1:00 PM
TEN at 
NYGNYG -2.5 / NYG -4.42Sun 4:05 PM
ARI at 
SFSF -8.5 / SF -8.04Sun 4:05 PM
MIN at 
TBMIN -1.5 / TB -1.49Sun 4:25 PM
BAL at 
DALBAL -3.5 / BAL -0.91Sun 4:25 PM
LV at 
NONO -3 / NO -1.6Sun 8:20 PM
LA at 
DENLA -2.5 / DEN -1.93Mon 8:15 PM
PHI at 
CHIPHI -4.5 / CHI -0.75Depth charts and who's out
Who's out
Patriots
Brenden Schooler SBackOUT
A.J. Brown WRAnkleIR
Dell Pettus SAnkleIR
Mike Onwenu GAnkleIR
Eli Raridon TEThighQ
5 more
Craig Woodson SShoulderQ
Dre'Mont Jones DEShoulderQ
Morgan Moses OTFootQ
Quintayvious Hutchins LBKneeQ
Reggie Gilliam FBKneeQ
Jaguars
- Nobody listed.
Every read on this page assumes the man is on the field. Designations as of 2026-09-20.
The game
Jaguars ahead means Tuten carries it late; Patriots chasing means Maye throws, and Doubs, Douglas and Henry get the volume.
NE has to
Find Hollins against zone
0.52 EPA a target vs zone, 12th of 106. Jaguars play zone 76.2%, 7th.
JAX has to
Change the picture on Hollins
He is 0.37 against man. Jaguars play it 23.8%, 26th.
The model's play
Our total 47.8 vs 45.5 posted (gusts 6 mph, rain 0.00 in at kickoff). Posted Sep 20 on that forecast; the forecast for kickoff is now gusts of 10 mph.
Won 53.5% of 1,975 past bets like it. The worst case we can be 80% sure of is 52.1%, which is still short of the 52.4% break-even.
Best price
JAX -3 +101 at LowVig.ag, 20 booksJAX -2.5 -118at FanDuel NE +3 -112 at LowVig.ag, 20 booksNE +3.5 -139at ReBetThe matchup
Patriots with the ballPatriots: find Hollins against zone.
Patriots12thnever go no-huddle lowestJaguars with the ballJaguars: take the shots downfield.
Jaguars24thNot a key: the Patriots blitz (11th) on Lawrence. He drops when blitzed like everyone, but from 8th in the league.
Ranks are 2025 regular season, 1st to 32nd, 1st best at the job either side. top 8 bottom 8
The game plan in words, and every rank (2025 regular season)
Patriots with the ballWhat they like to do Vrabel's Patriots never go no-huddle (lowest).
Where they win and lose They move the ball (1st), throw it well (1st) and hit explosive passes (1st).
What the Jaguars defense brings They shut offenses down (3rd) and take the ball away (4th) and they cannot get a sack (3rd-worst).
What works against them Nothing on the ledger stands out; it comes down to the matchup below.
Where the two meet Patriots: find Hollins against zone. 0.52 EPA a target vs zone, 12th of 106. Jaguars play zone 76.2%, 7th. Patriots: give Maye a clean pocket. 0.46 EPA a dropback clean, 2nd of 36. Jaguars get pressure 26.8%, 7th-lowest.
Jaguars with the ballWhat they like to do Coen's Jaguars are middle of the league in how they play.
Where they win and lose Middle of the league on both sides of the ledger.
What the Patriots defense brings A middle-of-the-league defense in how it plays and how it holds up.
What works against them Nothing on the ledger stands out; it comes down to the matchup below.
Where the two meet Jaguars: take the shots downfield. Jaguars hit explosive passes 9.4%, 8th. Patriots play two-high just 40.1%, 11th-fewest.
New England
Jacksonville
The bets
What the model likes
4 more
The information
Player angles
Also posted, with no read either way: Trevor Lawrence 226.5 passing yards (over in 14 of his 29, 2024-2026), Rhamondre Stevenson 37.5 rushing yards (over in 20 of his 31, 2024-2026), Drake Maye 25.5 rushing yards (over in 16 of his 32, 2024-2026), Chris Rodriguez 20.5 rushing yards (over in 11 of his 20, 2024-2026), Romeo Doubs 43.5 receiving yards (over in 17 of his 31, 2024-2026), Hunter Henry 42.5 receiving yards (over in 16 of his 35, 2024-2026), Brian Thomas 37.5 receiving yards (over in 26 of his 33, 2024-2026), Jakobi Meyers 35.5 receiving yards (over in 27 of his 33, 2024-2026), Mack Hollins 33.5 receiving yards (over in 9 of his 32, 2024-2026), Demario Douglas 29.5 receiving yards (over in 17 of his 34, 2024-2026), Rhamondre Stevenson 13.5 receiving yards (over in 15 of his 31, 2024-2026), Hunter Henry 4.5 receptions (over in 11 of his 35, 2024-2026), Brenton Strange 3.5 receptions (over in 10 of his 28, 2024-2026), Jakobi Meyers 3.5 receptions (over in 27 of his 33, 2024-2026), Brian Thomas 2.5 receptions (over in 26 of his 33, 2024-2026), Rhamondre Stevenson 2.5 receptions (over in 13 of his 31, 2024-2026), Bhayshul Tuten 1.5 receptions (over in 3 of his 17, 2025-2026) and TreVeyon Henderson 1.5 receptions (over in 10 of his 18, 2025-2026).
Player trends
Game angles
First quarter: Jaguars -0.5 and a total of 7.5.
Game trends
A lean is where a record points. Only a record past the luck line is a bet; the rest is reading. The bar's tick is the line to beat. Confidence runs from 50, a coin flip, to 100.
Every read in full: the scores, the story and the receipts
The player lines
Under 39.5 rushing yards for TreVeyon Henderson leads 30 lines. On 7, the player's history and the matchup agree.
Why 64
- The story With it: the Patriots chase, so Henderson carries it less.
- The evidence 4 of 6 (67%) against a 33% baseline, 41% after shrinking for sample size.
- Agreement No other signal on this side.
- The grid No held angle applies to this line.
- The matchup JAX allow 29% less than league to RBs, 32nd most.
- The price -115, which needs 53% to break even.
- Where it went On the card, 0.5u.
Why 64
- The story With it: the Patriots chase, so Maye throws.
- The evidence 5 of 8 (62%) against a 29% baseline, 40% after shrinking for sample size.
- Agreement No other signal on this side.
- The grid No held angle applies to this line.
- The matchup JAX allow 10% more than league to WRs, 5th most.
- The price -180, which needs 64% to break even.
Why 63
- The story Against it: the Jaguars play fast.
- The evidence 20 of 29 (69%) against a 52% baseline, 57% after shrinking for sample size.
- Agreement 1 other signal on the same side.
- The grid No held angle applies to this line.
- The matchup NE allow 15% less than league to WRs, 29th most.
- The price -115, which needs 53% to break even.
See all 30 player lines
Why 58
- The story Against it: the Jaguars lead, so Tuten carries it late; the Jaguars play fast.
- The evidence 8 of 9 (89%) against a 75% baseline, 69% after shrinking for sample size.
- Agreement 1 other signal on the same side.
- The grid No held angle applies to this line.
- The matchup NE allow 18% less than league to RBs, 28th most.
- The price -115, which needs 53% to break even.
Why 54
- The story With it: the Patriots chase, so Maye throws.
- The evidence 14 of 23 (61%) against a 46% baseline, 48% after shrinking for sample size.
- Agreement No other signal on this side.
- The grid No held angle applies to this line.
- The matchup JAX allow 10% more than league to WRs, 5th most.
- The price -180, which needs 64% to break even.
Why 52
- The story With it: the Patriots chase, so Maye throws.
- The evidence 11 of 18 (61%) against a 48% baseline, 46% after shrinking for sample size.
- Agreement No other signal on this side.
- The grid No held angle applies to this line.
- The matchup JAX allow 10% more than league to RBs, 9th most.
- The price -115, which needs 53% to break even.
Why 52
- The story With it: the Patriots chase, so Maye throws.
- The evidence 3 of 5 (60%) against a 35% baseline, 33% after shrinking for sample size.
- Agreement No other signal on this side.
- The grid No held angle applies to this line.
- The matchup JAX allow 10% more than league to WRs, 5th most.
- The price +110, which needs 48% to break even.
- Where it went On the card, 0.5u.
Why 74
- The story Against it: the Jaguars play fast.
- The evidence 16 of 22 (73%) against a 43% baseline, 59% after shrinking for sample size.
- Agreement 1 other signal on the same side.
- The grid No held angle applies to this line.
- The matchup NE allow 8% less than league to WRs, 25th most.
- The price +115, which needs 47% to break even.
Why 66
- The story Against it: the Jaguars play fast.
- The evidence 13 of 17 (76%) against a 52% baseline, 61% after shrinking for sample size.
- Agreement 1 other signal on the same side.
- The grid No held angle applies to this line.
- The matchup NE allow 2% less than league to RBs, 15th most.
- The price -115, which needs 53% to break even.
Why 62
- The story With it: the Patriots chase, so Maye throws.
- The evidence 20 of 32 (62%) against a 48% baseline, 51% after shrinking for sample size.
- Agreement 2 other signals on the same side.
- The grid No held angle applies to this line.
- The matchup JAX allow 4% more than league to QBs, 13th most.
- The price -115, which needs 53% to break even.
Why 62
- The story With it: the Jaguars play fast.
- The evidence 7 of 11 (64%) against a 35% baseline, 44% after shrinking for sample size.
- Agreement No other signal on this side.
- The grid No held angle applies to this line.
- The matchup NE allow 7% more than league to TEs, 13th most.
- The price -115, which needs 53% to break even.
Why 52
- The story Against it: the Jaguars play fast.
- The evidence 17 of 29 (59%) against a 52% baseline, 47% after shrinking for sample size.
- Agreement No other signal on this side.
- The grid No held angle applies to this line.
- The matchup NE allow 13% less than league to QBs, 26th most.
- The price -110, which needs 52% to break even.
Lines from Bovada as of 2026-09-25. A record is the player against the consensus closing line, every game since 2023, graded on the box score. Overs hit 46 to 48% league-wide; that is the bar, not 50. "Player and matchup agree" means he clears this number 60%+ in the situation this game puts him in AND the opponent allows 10%+ over league to his position. None of these has a graded record yet.
Player trends
No player trend applies to this game.
Team trends
The last time the Patriots were here, Dec 12, 2004: beat the Bengals by 7 as a 10.5-point favorite.
Inside the luck line: 39 games, and shuffled results produce records like this one. Reading, not a bet; the lean is the Jaguars.
The last time the Patriots were here, Sep 19, 2010: lost to the Jets by 14 as a 3-point favorite.
Inside the luck line: 71 games, and shuffled results produce records like this one. Reading, not a bet; the lean is the Jaguars.
See all 6 team trends
The last time the Jaguars were here, Oct 28, 2012: lost to the Packers by 9 as a 15-point underdog.
Inside the luck line: 110 games, and shuffled results produce records like this one. Reading, not a bet; the lean is the Jaguars.
Jacksonville have gone under at home after a lossOn totals of 38 to 44.5; this game is 45.5, inside that.
Why 68
- The evidence 10 of 14 (71%) against a 38% baseline, 54% after shrinking for sample size.
- Agreement No other signal on this side.
Jacksonville have covered as a home favoriteWhy 52
- The evidence 10 of 14 (71%) against a 56% baseline, 54% after shrinking for sample size.
- Agreement No other signal on this side.
- The gap Our number 0.9 points off the market on this side.
Against the spread and the total, as far back as the current head coach and starting quarterback go (at least three seasons; each card says how far, and what changed). The second bar is the same team everywhere else, which is the number that tells you whether the first one means anything.
Model plays carry a live record. Prop spots and trends are situational reads, and no prop verdict has a graded record yet. When two sections disagree, both stay.
History
Last meetings
- 2024 wk 7Patriots at JaguarsJaguars won, Jaguars covered16-32
- 2021 wk 17Jaguars at PatriotsPatriots won, Patriots covered10-50
Against the spread in these meetings: 1-1 to Jaguars, on closing numbers.
The card
Betting PassThe number. The market has the Jaguars by 3 at a total of 45.5: Jaguars 24.2, Patriots 21.2 on paper.
How it plays. The total of 45.5 is ordinary. Jaguars play fast (8th in plays a game).
What changed. Patriots: 1 starting linemen out. Jaguars: no starter on the report.
Model favorites
Three favorites from 28 signals: the total and two player lines. Data as of: forecast Fri 12:00 PM ET; injuries Fri 11:49 AM ET; model Fri 12:04 PM ET.
The total
1 reason for, 1 againstA player line
3 reasons forA player line
3 reasons forHow the score works
Score is how much we trust a bet. 50 is a coin flip; the number is how far past it the evidence pushes: reasons for minus reasons against, and a reason from something with a years-long record counts more than a trend. Units follow it: a bet backed by a tracked record is 1 unit, 1.5 at 80 or more; a bet whose logic is sound but unproven is half a unit, and only at plus money or alongside a 1-unit bet on the same game. Click a bet for its reasons.