The forecast has gusts to 22 miles an hour. Not enough on its own to move a total, but it is real.
ATL at 
GBGB -6.5 / GB -2.55Sun 1:00 PM
CAR at 
CLECAR -2.5 / CAR -0.05Sun 1:00 PM
CIN at 
PITCIN -3.5 / PIT -1.89Sun 1:00 PM
HOU at 
INDHOU -1.5 / HOU -0.11Sun 1:00 PM
KC at 
MIAKC -10.5 / KC -4.89Sun 1:00 PM
LAC at 
BUFBUF -7 / BUF -6.25Sun 1:00 PM
NE at 
JAXJAX -3 / JAX -3.85Sun 1:00 PM
NYJ at 
DETDET -6.5 / DET -9.17Sun 1:00 PM
SEA at 
WASSEA -7.5 / SEA -2.75Sun 1:00 PM
TEN at 
NYGNYG -2.5 / NYG -4.42Sun 4:05 PM
ARI at 
SFSF -8.5 / SF -8.04Sun 4:05 PM
MIN at 
TBMIN -1.5 / TB -1.49Sun 4:25 PM
BAL at 
DALBAL -3.5 / BAL -0.91Sun 4:25 PM
LV at 
NONO -3 / NO -1.6Sun 8:20 PM
LA at 
DENLA -2.5 / DEN -1.93Mon 8:15 PM
PHI at 
CHIPHI -4.5 / CHI -0.75Depth charts and who's out
Who's out
Rams
- Nobody listed.
Broncos
Jonathon Cooper LBPersonalOUT
Nick Gargiulo GKnee - ACLOUT
Caleb Lohner TELower BodyIR
Frank Crum OTIR
Levelle Bailey LBLegIR
2 more
Jonah Coleman RBAnkleQ
Marvin Mims Jr. WRFootQ
Every read on this page assumes the man is on the field. Designations as of 2026-09-20.
The game
Close on paper, so neither side is scripted to chase: Nix and Stafford both throw, and the backs (Dobbins, Williams) carry it on whichever side gets ahead.
LA has to
Take the shots downfield
Rams hit explosive passes 11.7%, 2nd. Broncos play two-high just 36.3%, 6th-fewest.
DEN has to
Keep a lid on it
Broncos play two-high 36.3%, 6th-fewest, against the 2nd explosive passing offense.
The model's play
Our total 48.2 vs 46.5 posted (gusts 15 mph, rain 0.00 in at kickoff). Posted Sep 20 on that forecast; the forecast for kickoff is now gusts of 22 mph.
Won 53.5% of 1,975 past bets like it. The worst case we can be 80% sure of is 52.1%, which is still short of the 52.4% break-even.
Weather at kickoff
Best price
DEN +2.5 -107 at Caesars, 20 booksbest on the board LA -2.5 +100 at LowVig.ag, 20 booksLA -2 -120at BetUSThe matchup
Rams with the ballRams: take the shots downfield.
Rams24thstay under center lowestplay man 1stplay single-high 4thBroncos with the ballBroncos: run at the Rams zone eyes.
Broncos10thplay fast 4thalmost never blitz 3rd-lowestNot a key: the Broncos blitz (6th) on Stafford. He drops when blitzed like everyone, but from 3rd in the league.
Ranks are 2025 regular season, 1st to 32nd, 1st best at the job either side. top 8 bottom 8
The game plan in words, and every rank (2025 regular season)
Rams with the ballWhat they like to do McVay's Rams stay under center (lowest).
Where they win and lose They move the ball (2nd), throw it well (2nd) and hit explosive passes (2nd).
What the Broncos defense brings They play man (1st), play single-high (4th) and blitz (6th) and they get sacks (1st), make throws hard (1st) and shut offenses down (5th).
What works against them Nothing on the ledger stands out; it comes down to the matchup below.
Where the two meet Rams: take the shots downfield. Rams hit explosive passes 11.7%, 2nd. Broncos play two-high just 36.3%, 6th-fewest.
Broncos with the ballWhat they like to do Payton's Broncos play fast (4th).
Where they win and lose They protect the quarterback (1st).
What the Rams defense brings They almost never blitz (3rd-lowest).
What works against them Nothing on the ledger stands out; it comes down to the matchup below.
Where the two meet Broncos: run at the Rams zone eyes. Explosive run rate 11.6%, 12th. Rams play man 25.6%, 23rd: lighter boxes, backs turned.
Los Angeles
Denver
The bets
What the model likes
The information
Player angles
6 more player angles
Also posted, with no read either way: Matthew Stafford 240.5 passing yards (over in 22 of his 35, 2024-2026), Kyren Williams 52.5 rushing yards (over in 30 of his 35, 2024-2026), J.K. Dobbins 50.5 rushing yards (over in 17 of his 25, 2024-2026), Terrance Ferguson 50.5 receiving yards (over in 3 of his 13, 2025-2026), Evan Engram 20.5 receiving yards (over in 20 of his 27, 2024-2026), Kyren Williams 11.5 receiving yards (over in 17 of his 35, 2024-2026), Davante Adams 5.5 receptions (over in 11 of his 30, 2024-2026), Terrance Ferguson 3.5 receptions (over in 1 of his 13, 2025-2026), Kyren Williams 2.5 receptions (over in 12 of his 35, 2024-2026) and Pat Bryant 2.5 receptions (over in 6 of his 14, 2025-2026).
Player trends
Game angles
First quarter: Rams -0.5 and a total of 7.5.
Game trends
A lean is where a record points. Only a record past the luck line is a bet; the rest is reading. The bar's tick is the line to beat. Confidence runs from 50, a coin flip, to 100.
Every read in full: the scores, the story and the receipts
The player lines
Under 47.5 rushing yards for Blake Corum leads 21 lines. On 1, the player's history and the matchup agree.
Why 61
- The story Against it: the weather leans the running game up.
- The evidence 23 of 33 (70%) against a 52% baseline, 59% after shrinking for sample size.
- Agreement No other signal on this side.
- The grid No held angle applies to this line.
- The matchup DEN allow 16% less than league to RBs, 27th most.
- The price -120, which needs 55% to break even.
Why 80
- The story No view on this one.
- The evidence 4 of 5 (80%) against a 29% baseline, 51% after shrinking for sample size.
- Agreement 2 other signals on the same side.
- The grid No held angle applies to this line.
- The matchup LA allow 5% more than league to WRs, 12th most.
- The price -115, which needs 53% to break even.
Why 80
- The story No view on this one.
- The evidence 4 of 5 (80%) against a 32% baseline, 51% after shrinking for sample size.
- Agreement 2 other signals on the same side.
- The grid No held angle applies to this line.
- The matchup LA allow 5% more than league to WRs, 10th most.
- The price -150, which needs 60% to break even.
See all 21 player lines
Why 72
- The story Against it: the Broncos play fast.
- The evidence 12 of 18 (67%) against a 33% baseline, 52% after shrinking for sample size.
- Agreement No other signal on this side.
- The grid No held angle applies to this line.
- The matchup LA allow 9% less than league to QBs, 23rd most.
- The price -115, which needs 53% to break even.
Why 62
- The story No view on this one.
- The evidence 19 of 29 (66%) against a 43% baseline, 54% after shrinking for sample size.
- Agreement No other signal on this side.
- The grid No held angle applies to this line.
- The matchup LA allow 0% less than league to QBs, 16th most.
- The price -115, which needs 53% to break even.
Why 59
- The story With it: the wind leans the passing game down.
- The evidence 21 of 30 (70%) against a 52% baseline, 58% after shrinking for sample size.
- Agreement No other signal on this side.
- The grid No held angle applies to this line.
- The matchup DEN allow 9% less than league to WRs, 23rd most.
- The price -115, which needs 53% to break even.
Why 58
- The story No view on this one.
- The evidence 10 of 12 (83%) against a 65% baseline, 66% after shrinking for sample size.
- Agreement 2 other signals on the same side.
- The grid No held angle applies to this line.
- The matchup LA allow 5% more than league to WRs, 12th most.
- The price -120, which needs 55% to break even.
Why 58
- The story No view on this one.
- The evidence 9 of 12 (75%) against a 65% baseline, 57% after shrinking for sample size.
- Agreement 2 other signals on the same side.
- The grid No held angle applies to this line.
- The matchup LA allow 5% more than league to WRs, 10th most.
- The price +105, which needs 49% to break even.
Why 52
- The story No view on this one.
- The evidence 8 of 10 (80%) against a 65% baseline, 60% after shrinking for sample size.
- Agreement No other signal on this side.
- The grid No held angle applies to this line.
- The matchup LA allow 7% more than league to TEs, 10th most.
- The price -120, which needs 55% to break even.
Why 51
- The story No view on this one.
- The evidence 5 of 8 (62%) against a 50% baseline, 40% after shrinking for sample size.
- Agreement No other signal on this side.
- The grid No held angle applies to this line.
- The matchup LA allow 5% more than league to WRs, 12th most.
- The price -115, which needs 53% to break even.
Why 50
- The story No view on this one.
- The evidence 6 of 7 (86%) against a 68% baseline, 62% after shrinking for sample size.
- Agreement No other signal on this side.
- The grid No held angle applies to this line.
- The matchup DEN allow 1% less than league to QBs, 16th most.
- The price -150, which needs 60% to break even.
Lines from Bovada as of 2026-09-25. A record is the player against the consensus closing line, every game since 2023, graded on the box score. Overs hit 46 to 48% league-wide; that is the bar, not 50. "Player and matchup agree" means he clears this number 60%+ in the situation this game puts him in AND the opponent allows 10%+ over league to his position. None of these has a graded record yet.
Player trends
Sutton: 9 of his last 10 games outdoors as an underdog with 50+ receiving yards.
Courtland SuttonWR outdoors as an underdog with 50+ receiving yardsWhy 66
- The story No view on this one.
- The evidence 9 of 10 (90%) against a 64% baseline, 72% after shrinking for sample size.
- Agreement 2 other signals on the same side.
J.K. DobbinsRB at home with 50+ rushing yardsWhy 50
- The story With it: the weather leans the running game up; the Broncos play fast.
- The evidence 8 of 10 (80%) against a 65% baseline, 60% after shrinking for sample size.
- Agreement No other signal on this side.
How this is graded
The second number is the point. Everyone posts the first one.
Team trends
The last time the Rams were here, Jan 23, 2022: beat the Buccaneers by 3 as a 2.5-point underdog.
Inside the luck line: 38 games, and shuffled results produce records like this one. Reading, not a bet; the lean is the Rams.
The last time the Rams were here, Sep 17, 2023: lost to the 49ers by 7 as a 7.5-point underdog.
Inside the luck line: 93 games, and shuffled results produce records like this one. Reading, not a bet; the lean is the Broncos.
See all 6 team trends
Inside the luck line: 66 games, and shuffled results produce records like this one. Reading, not a bet; the lean is the under.
Denver have gone over at home when our model likes themOn totals of 36.5 to 51.5; this game is 43.5, inside that.
Why 64
- The evidence 6 of 8 (75%) against a 44% baseline, 52% after shrinking for sample size.
- Agreement 1 other signal on the same side.
Los Angeles have gone under on the road in prime timeOn totals of 42 to 53.5; this game is 43.5, inside that.
Why 50
- The evidence 7 of 10 (70%) against a 49% baseline, 50% after shrinking for sample size.
- Agreement No other signal on this side.
Against the spread and the total, as far back as the current head coach and starting quarterback go (at least three seasons; each card says how far, and what changed). The second bar is the same team everywhere else, which is the number that tells you whether the first one means anything.
Model plays carry a live record. Prop spots and trends are situational reads, and no prop verdict has a graded record yet. When two sections disagree, both stay.
History
No recent meetings on file.
The card
Betting PassThe number. The market has the Rams by 2.5 at a total of 43.5: Rams 23, Broncos 20.5 on paper.
How it plays. The total of 43.5 is ordinary. Broncos play fast (4th in plays a game). The forecast has gusts to 22, which leans the passing game down. The ball goes to the ground, so Williams and Dobbins carry it more; the books raise rushing lines for weather (rushing overs 49% since 2019) and do not cut passing lines enough (passing overs 33% in wind), so the passing unders are the edge and the rushing overs are the story at a fair price.
What changed. Rams: no starter on the report. Broncos: WR Marvin Mims Jr. questionable.
Model favorites
No favorite from 28 signals. The angles are reading, not picks. Data as of: forecast Fri 12:00 PM ET; injuries Fri 11:49 AM ET; model Fri 12:04 PM ET.
This season, by score: 70-79: 1-2 (-0.5u). 3 graded bets, every card, no cherry-picking.