Patrick Surtain II
Denver BroncosModel Score
How good he is at what he is supposed to be doing, out of 100. Not a projection of what he will do next, and not a read on his contract. Median is about 70, and a 95 is rare. How it is built →
Season Stats · 14 games
Draft & College
He went about where consensus had him.
Covers the college seasons in our data, which does not always reach back to a player's first year.
Comps
STM Take
2024 DPOY plus three Pro Bowls plus two 1st-team All-Pros plus four tier 1 finishes (5 years) establishes Surtain as the best CB of his generation. The Alabama 2020 CFP National Championship pedigree plus the NFL-family bloodline puts him on a Hall-of-Fame trajectory. The 2026 question is whether Surtain wins his second DPOY or whether the multi-year tier 1 dominance translates to back-to-back top-prize voting.
Surtain came out of Alabama as the Denver Broncos' 1st-round pick (9th overall) in 2021 after winning the 2020 CFP National Championship as Alabama's starting CB, the son of three-time Pro Bowl CB Patrick Surtain Sr. He has made three Pro Bowls (2022-2024), two 1st-team All-Pros (2022, 2024), and won the 2024 NFL Defensive Player of the Year. His STTM career runs tier 1 (#6) in 2021, tier 1 (#8) in 2022, tier 3 (#24) in 2023, tier 1 (#3) peak in 2024 DPOY, and tier 1 (#4) in 2025.
Strengths
- 2024 DPOY plus three Pro Bowls plus two 1st-team All-Pros plus four tier 1 STTM finishes establishes a Hall-of-Fame CB résumé.
- Alabama 2020 CFP National Championship pedigree plus the NFL-family bloodline puts him on the fastest Hall-of-Fame CB trajectory.
Concerns
- Denver's broader defensive identity around Vance Joseph's scheme puts continued Surtain ceiling partly scheme-dependent.
- Age 26 plus the elite-pace workload puts the late-career structural decline question on every 2028+ projection.
What to watch: Whether Surtain wins his second DPOY in 2026 plus holds tier 1 (top 5), the threshold for confirming the multi-year dominance translates.