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PlayerPatrick Surtain II · CB, Denver Broncos, Model Score 99.0Be the Broncos GM

Patrick Surtain II

Denver Broncos
Pos CB
Updated October 8, 2026

Model Score

99.0 MODEL
2024
99.0
2025
90.7
2026
99.0

How good he is at what he is supposed to be doing, out of 100. Not a projection of what he will do next, and not a read on his contract. Median is about 70, and a 95 is rare. How it is built →

STM Take

2024 DPOY plus three Pro Bowls plus two 1st-team All-Pros plus four tier 1 finishes (5 years) establishes Surtain as the best CB of his generation. The Alabama 2020 CFP National Championship pedigree plus the NFL-family bloodline puts him on a Hall-of-Fame trajectory. The 2026 question is whether Surtain wins his second DPOY or whether the multi-year tier 1 dominance translates to back-to-back top-prize voting.

Surtain came out of Alabama as the Denver Broncos' 1st-round pick (9th overall) in 2021 after winning the 2020 CFP National Championship as Alabama's starting CB, the son of three-time Pro Bowl CB Patrick Surtain Sr. He has made three Pro Bowls (2022-2024), two 1st-team All-Pros (2022, 2024), and won the 2024 NFL Defensive Player of the Year. His STTM career runs tier 1 (#6) in 2021, tier 1 (#8) in 2022, tier 3 (#24) in 2023, tier 1 (#3) peak in 2024 DPOY, and tier 1 (#4) in 2025.

Strengths

  • 2024 DPOY plus three Pro Bowls plus two 1st-team All-Pros plus four tier 1 STTM finishes establishes a Hall-of-Fame CB résumé.
  • Alabama 2020 CFP National Championship pedigree plus the NFL-family bloodline puts him on the fastest Hall-of-Fame CB trajectory.

Concerns

  • Denver's broader defensive identity around Vance Joseph's scheme puts continued Surtain ceiling partly scheme-dependent.
  • Age 26 plus the elite-pace workload puts the late-career structural decline question on every 2028+ projection.

What to watch: Whether Surtain wins his second DPOY in 2026 plus holds tier 1 (top 5), the threshold for confirming the multi-year dominance translates.

Comps

Overall match
size, testing and production, same career stage
Plays like
on-field production only
Coming out
pros whose college production, size and testing looked like his

Patrick Surtain II Injury StatusDoubtful

Patrick Surtain II is listed Doubtful (Ankle), reported Oct 5. Source: the official NFL injury report, refreshed daily.

Patrick Surtain II Stats This Season · 4 games

0
INT
1
Pass Deflections
57.1%
Comp % Allowed
7.4
Yds / Target
0
TD Allowed
12
Solo Tackles

Draft & College

Round 1, pick 9 · Denver Broncos · 2021
Alabama (SEC)
Taken
#9
where he actually went
Consensus board
9th
average of the public big boards that spring
Our college model
#1
among CB in our college data

He went about where consensus had him.

In college · 2018-2020 · 36 games
4 INT, 26 pass breakups, 114 tackles, 6 TFL

Covers the college seasons in our data, which does not always reach back to a player's first year.

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