Xavier Watts

Atlanta FalconsUNDERPAID

Pos S

Updated August 24, 2026

S rankings →

Model Score

89.0 MODEL

Resting on limited playing time

How good he is at what he is supposed to be doing, out of 100. Not a projection of what he will do next, and not a read on his contract. Median is about 70, and a 95 is rare. How it is built →

Season Stats · 17 games

52nd

INT

113rd

Pass Deflections

60.7%25th

Comp % Allowed

9.267th

Yds / Target

693rd

TD Allowed

5715th

Solo Tackles

Draft & College

Round 3, pick 96 · Atlanta Falcons · 2025

Notre Dame (FBS Independents)

Taken

#96

where he actually went

Consensus board

58th

average of the public big boards that spring

Our college model

#25

among S in our college data

He lasted longer than consensus.

In college · 2021-2024 · 48 games

13 INT, 14 pass breakups, 181 tackles, 8 TFL

Covers the college seasons in our data, which does not always reach back to a player's first year.

Coming out

5.8

RAS

4.49s

40 yd

Comps

Overall match

size, testing and production, same career stage

Kevin Byard80%Jonas Sanker80%Curtis Riley78%

Plays like

on-field production only

Eddie Jackson89%Justin Simmons88%Kevin Byard88%

Built likeTHIN DATA

measurables only

Beau Brade88%Lamarcus Brutus87%Jadar Johnson87%

College career

his college career vs theirs

Jason Taylor II80%Kenny Robinson79%A.J. Finley74%

STM Take

Rookie tier 2 (#11) STTM finish for a 96th overall 3rd-round pick with back-to-back Bronko Nagurski Trophies establishes Watts on the fastest S developmental pace in recent memory. The Notre Dame elite college pedigree plus the structural Falcons anchor role gives him real college foundation. The 2026 question is whether Watts earns his first Pro Bowl plus crosses into tier 1 territory or whether the rookie peak stabilizes at top-15 S.

Watts came out of Notre Dame as the Atlanta Falcons' 3rd-round pick (96th overall) in 2025 after winning back-to-back Bronko Nagurski Trophies (2023, 2024) as the nation's top defensive player. The Falcons installed him in the starting safety rotation from his rookie year. His rookie 2025 finish at tier 2 (#11) puts him on the fastest S developmental pace for a 3rd-round pick.

Strengths

Back-to-back Bronko Nagurski Trophies (2023, 2024) plus the 96th overall draft slot plus rookie tier 2 (#11) STTM finish establishes the highest S pedigree of his class.
Year-one starter snaps for the Falcons at age 22 gives him the developmental runway.

Concerns

Single tier 2 finish without prior STTM history puts the long-term projection certainty at a small-sample risk.
Atlanta's broader defensive identity around the Walker-Pearce double-1st-round investment compresses the structural support around Watts.

What to watch: Whether Watts earns his first Pro Bowl in 2026 plus crosses into tier 1 (top 10), the threshold for confirming the rookie ceiling was structural.