Xavier McKinney
Green Bay PackersModel Score
How good he is at what he is supposed to be doing, out of 100. Not a projection of what he will do next, and not a read on his contract. Median is about 70, and a 95 is rare. How it is built →
Season Stats · 16 games
Draft & College
He lasted longer than consensus.
Covers the college seasons in our data, which does not always reach back to a player's first year.
Comps
STM Take
2024 1st-team All-Pro plus four straight top-11 STTM finishes (#6, #2, #11, #3) plus the Alabama 2017 CFP National Championship pedigree establishes McKinney as one of the elite safeties of his generation. The 2026 question is whether McKinney earns his second Pro Bowl plus holds tier 1 territory or whether the structural mid-career instability returns.
McKinney came out of Alabama as the New York Giants' 2nd-round pick (36th overall) in 2020 after winning the 2017 CFP National Championship. He earned 2024 1st-team All-Pro plus Pro Bowl recognition. He signed a four-year, $67M deal with the Green Bay Packers in 2024 free agency. His STTM career runs tier 1 (#6) in 2022, tier 1 (#2) peak in 2023, tier 2 (#11) in 2024, and tier 1 (#3) in 2025.
Strengths
- 2024 1st-team All-Pro plus four straight top-11 STTM finishes establishes structural top-5 S ceiling.
- Alabama 2017 CFP National Championship pedigree plus six years of NFL elite production gives him the rare championship-pedigree elite career foundation.
Concerns
- Career STTM volatility (tier 1 in 2022-2023, tier 2 in 2024, tier 1 in 2025) confirms the ceiling can swing across seasons.
- Green Bay's broader defensive identity around Jeff Hafley's first-year scheme puts continued McKinney ceiling partly scheme-dependent.
What to watch: Whether McKinney earns his second Pro Bowl in 2026 plus holds tier 1 (top 5), the threshold for confirming the structural ceiling holds.