Week 1 NFL Betting Card 2026: Line Moves and Model Edges
By StickToTheModel | Published: August 27, 2026 | Updated: August 27, 2026 | 1 min read
Category: Fantasy Football
Week 1 Betting Card: Line Moves and Model Disagreements
Season: 2026 | Spreads are the home-team line from our daily log; "open" is the first observation we recorded. The model number is our walk-forward spread - where it disagrees with the market is information, not a pick.
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Where the Lines Moved
GB @ MIN (2026-09-13): MIN +1.5 on 2026-08-08 → MIN -1.5 now (3.0 points toward MIN).
ARI @ LAC (2026-09-13): LAC -11.5 on 2026-08-08 → LAC -10.5 now (1.0 points away from LAC).
Model vs Market
BAL @ IND: market says IND +3.5, the model says IND -1.7 - a 5.2-point gap in IND's favor.
GB @ MIN: market says MIN -1.5, the model says MIN +1.6 - a 3.1-point gap in GB's favor.
CLE @ JAC: market says JAC -7.5, the model says JAC -4.5 - a 3.0-point gap in CLE's favor.
ARI @ LAC: market says LAC -10.5, the model says LAC -7.8 - a 2.7-point gap in ARI's favor.
DEN @ KC: market says KC -3.0, the model says KC -0.4 - a 2.6-point gap in DEN's favor.