Week 6 Betting Card: Line Moves and Model Disagreements

Season: 2026 | Spreads are the home-team line from our daily log; "open" is the first observation we recorded. The model number is our walk-forward spread - where it disagrees with the market is information, not a pick.

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Where the Lines Moved

Quiet board - no spread has moved half a point since we started logging this week.

Model vs Market

• ARI @ LAR: market says LAR -13.5, the model says LAR -4.7 - a 8.8-point gap in ARI's favor.
• BAL @ CLE: market says CLE +6.5, the model says CLE -2.0 - a 8.6-point gap in CLE's favor.
• BUF @ LV: market says LV +6.5, the model says LV -1.5 - a 8.0-point gap in LV's favor.
• CAR @ PHI: market says PHI -6.5, the model says PHI -2.0 - a 4.5-point gap in CAR's favor.
• CHI @ ATL: market says ATL +3.0, the model says ATL -1.1 - a 4.1-point gap in ATL's favor.

The Full Board

Every game, every angle, the model's number vs the market: Betting hub → · Angle finder →