Week 1 · Thursday 20:35 ET

49ers at Rams

49ers -3.5Melbourne Cricket Ground · indoors
Total 48.5

The read

A dome, a 48.5 that is among the highest on the board and a division game. It opened 49ers -3 and 48.5, moved once on 2026-08-01, and has sat still for the 36 days we have been watching.

Who is on the field

San Francisco

Los Angeles

The Team HQ depth chart itself, not a copy. Offense and defense toggle inside it, and you can drag players to rearrange. Cross it against the injuries below.

San Francisco on its own page →Los Angeles on its own page →

Who is not playing

San Francisco

Isaac GuerendoRBPectoralOUT

Mykel WilliamsDEKnee - ACLOUT

Christian McCaffreyRBQUESTIONABLE

De'Zhaun StriblingWRShoulderQUESTIONABLE

George KittleTEAchillesQUESTIONABLE

Kurtis RourkeQBRibsQUESTIONABLE

Mike EvansWRGroinQUESTIONABLE

Ephesians PrysockCBShoulderQUESTIONABLE

and 9 more

Los Angeles

Nobody listed

Skill players in white, because every trend and coverage read on this page assumes the man is on the field. Designations as of 2026-09-07. Anyone cleared is absent from this list entirely.

San Francisco depth chart →Los Angeles depth chart →

Keys to the game

49ers

Find Tonges against zone

0.35 EPA a target vs zone, 38th of 104. Rams play zone 74.4%, 10th.

Has to

Tighten the windows

49ers allow completions at the 1st-highest rate against the 8th completion offense.

Has to

Steal a possession

49ers are 8th-worst in EPA allowed against the 2nd offense. They need a takeaway.

Rams

Take the easy throws

Rams complete 62.9%, 8th. 49ers allow completions at the 1st-highest rate.

Run the offense

Rams are 2nd in EPA a play. 49ers are 8th-worst in EPA allowed. Nothing fancy needed.

Throw on first and second down

Rams pass on early downs 54.5%, 7th. 49ers are 6th-worst in early-down EPA allowed.

Each team in one line

49ersComplete everything1stCannot get a sackworstLet everything get completedworstNever go no-huddle6th-lowest

RamsMove the ball2ndThrow it well2ndHit explosive passes2ndStay under centerlowest

Full tendencies, 2025 regular season, ranked against all 32

San Francisco

How they play

They never go no-huddle3.7%no-huddle rate6th-lowest

and they stay under center53.9%shotgun rate6th-lowest

and they sit in Cover 331.8%Cover 3 rate6th

Where they win and lose

They complete everything66.0%completion rate1st

and they cannot get a sack3.2%sack rateworst

and they let everything get completed62.9%completion rate allowedworst

and they never take it away0.9%interception rate2nd-worst

Los Angeles

How they play

They stay under center41.0%shotgun ratelowest

and they almost never blitz19.6%blitz rate3rd-lowest

and they pass on early downs54.5%early-down pass rate7th

and they play two-high48.9%two-high rate7th

Where they win and lose

They move the ball+0.14EPA a play2nd

and they throw it well+0.23EPA a pass2nd

and they hit explosive passes11.7%explosive pass rate2nd

and they protect the quarterback3.7%sacks taken2nd

San Francisco tendencies →Los Angeles tendencies →

Angles that fire on this game

None of our frozen angles fire here. The slate is registered before the season and never added to mid-week, so an empty game stays empty.

Player trends that apply to this game

Christian McCaffreyRB has 9 of his last 10 games on the road with 50+ rushing yards.

9 of 10, 90% in this spot · 2024-2025

17 of 27, 63% in every other spot

Brock PurdyQB has 7 of his last 10 games on the road with 2+ passing touchdowns.

7 of 10, 70% in this spot · 2024-2025

13 of 26, 50% in every other spot

The second number is the point. Everyone posts the first one.

Fantasy: who to start, and who they draw

San Francisco

Christian McCaffreyRB

66% of the carries · 100 red-zone touches

Jauan JenningsWR

18% of the targets · 22 red-zone touches

Rams give up more to WRs than almost anyone, 5th

George KittleTE

19% of the targets · 14 red-zone touches

Rams give up more to TEs than almost anyone, 7th

Los Angeles

Kyren WilliamsRB

57% of the carries · 63 red-zone touches

49ers give up more to RBs than almost anyone, 5th

Puka NacuaWR

28% of the targets · 18 red-zone touches

Colby ParkinsonTE

11% of the targets · 22 red-zone touches

Usage is last season's average share and red-zone work. The defense line is what that team actually allowed to the position, ranked against all 32. Neither is a projection.

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