Week 1 · Monday 20:15 ET

Broncos at Chiefs

Broncos -3.0GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium · outdoors
Total 43.5

The read

A division game. The forecast has gusts to 38 miles an hour. Not enough on its own to move a total, but it is real. It opened Broncos -2.5 and 42.5 and has moved twice since, most recently on 2026-09-07.

Who is on the field

Denver

Kansas City

The Team HQ depth chart itself, not a copy. Offense and defense toggle inside it, and you can drag players to rearrange. Cross it against the injuries below.

Denver on its own page →Kansas City on its own page →

Who is not playing

Denver

Jonathon CooperLBOUT

Nick GargiuloGKnee - ACLOUT

Marvin Mims Jr.WRFootQUESTIONABLE

Luke WattenbergCQUESTIONABLE

Riley MossCBRibsQUESTIONABLE

Caleb LohnerTELower BodyIR

Drew SandersLBIR

Frank CrumOTIR

and 3 more

Kansas City

Omarr Norman-LottDTKnee - ACLOUT

Patrick MahomesQBKnee - ACLQUESTIONABLE

Alohi GilmanSBackQUESTIONABLE

Ashton GillotteDEFootQUESTIONABLE

Drue TranquillLBBackQUESTIONABLE

Josh SimmonsOTBackQUESTIONABLE

R Mason ThomasDEHamstringQUESTIONABLE

Trey SmithGHipQUESTIONABLE

and 3 more

Skill players in white, because every trend and coverage read on this page assumes the man is on the field. Designations as of 2026-09-07. Anyone cleared is absent from this list entirely.

Denver depth chart →Kansas City depth chart →

Keys to the game

Broncos

Send it at Mahomes

Blitz rate 32.2%, 6th. Mahomes falls to -0.10 EPA when blitzed, 27th of 37.

Get home without blitzing

Pressure rate 34.5%, 2nd. Chiefs take the 12th-most sacks.

Chiefs

Has to

Keep Mahomes clean

0.25 EPA a dropback clean, 20th of 37. Blitzed, -0.10, 27th of 37.

Has to

Hold up against four

Sacks taken 7.5%, 12th-most. Quick game does not fix a four-man rush.

Not a key: the Chiefs blitz (3rd) on Nix. He drops when blitzed like everyone, but from 6th in the league.

Each team in one line

BroncosProtect the quarterback1stGet sacks1stMake throws hard1stPlay man1st

ChiefsRun it well6thGet pressure7thRarely play Cover 3lowestNever go no-huddle2nd-lowest

Full tendencies, 2025 regular season, ranked against all 32

Denver

How they play

They play man44.6%man coverage rate1st

and they play fast63.5plays a game4th

and they play single-high60.7%single-high rate4th

and they blitz32.2%blitz rate6th

Where they win and lose

They protect the quarterback3.6%sacks taken1st

and they get sacks9.8%sack rate1st

and they make throws hard49.4%completion rate allowed1st

and they shut offenses down-0.08EPA allowed a play5th

Kansas City

How they play

They rarely play Cover 320.6%Cover 3 ratelowest

and they never go no-huddle2.5%no-huddle rate2nd-lowest

and they pass on early downs57.1%early-down pass rate3rd

and they live in shotgun80.7%shotgun rate3rd

Where they win and lose

They run it well+0.03EPA a run6th

and they get pressure33.0%pressure rate7th

Denver tendencies →Kansas City tendencies →

Angles that fire on this game

None of our frozen angles fire here. The slate is registered before the season and never added to mid-week, so an empty game stays empty.

Player trends that apply to this game

J.K. DobbinsRB has 8 of his last 10 games outdoors with 75+ rushing yards.

8 of 10, 80% in this spot · 2024-2025

3 of 11, 27% in every other spot

Courtland SuttonWR has 9 of his last 10 games as a favorite with 50+ receiving yards.

9 of 10, 90% in this spot · 2024-2025

22 of 34, 65% in every other spot

Kenneth Walker IIIRB has 5 of his last 6 games in prime time as an underdog with 50+ rushing yards.

5 of 6, 83% in this spot · 2023-2025

30 of 52, 58% in every other spot

Rashee RiceWR has 8 of his last 10 games at home with 50+ receiving yards.

8 of 10, 80% in this spot · 2023-2025

7 of 11, 64% in every other spot

The second number is the point. Everyone posts the first one.

Fantasy: who to start, and who they draw

Denver

RJ HarveyRB

31% of the carries · 40 red-zone touches

Chiefs are one of the hardest defenses for RBs, 28th

Courtland SuttonWR

19% of the targets · 20 red-zone touches

Chiefs are one of the hardest defenses for WRs, 29th

Evan EngramTE

13% of the targets · 11 red-zone touches

Chiefs are one of the hardest defenses for TEs, 25th

Kansas City

Kareem HuntRB

39% of the carries · 43 red-zone touches

Broncos are one of the hardest defenses for RBs, 32nd

Rashee RiceWR

25% of the targets · 22 red-zone touches

Broncos are one of the hardest defenses for WRs, 31st

Travis KelceTE

17% of the targets · 14 red-zone touches

Usage is last season's average share and red-zone work. The defense line is what that team actually allowed to the position, ranked against all 32. Neither is a projection.

The last time they played

2025 wk 17

Broncos at

Chiefs20-13Broncos won, Chiefs covered

2025 wk 11

Chiefs at

Broncos19-22Broncos won, Broncos covered

2024 wk 18

Chiefs at

Broncos0-38Broncos won, Broncos covered

2024 wk 10

Broncos at

Chiefs14-16Chiefs won, Broncos covered

2023 wk 8

Chiefs at

Broncos9-24Broncos won, Broncos covered

Against the spread in these meetings: 4-1 to Broncos. Closing numbers, not openers.

Every meeting, with the lines →

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