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Week 1 · Monday Sep 14 · Final

BroncosatChiefs

All week 1 games→Betting HQ→
FinalDEN 10, KC 31Chiefs by 21
SpreadKC -2.5Chiefs covered
Total42.5stayed under, 41 points
OpenedKC -2.5moved 0 points by kickoff

The run game. Expect the Chiefs to run it until the Broncos prove they can stop it.

Sunday: Chiefs ran for 220 yards on 38 carries.

The model's reads, Under 43.5: it won.

The depth charts as they stand today.

Denver depth chart →Kansas City depth chart →

Chiefs run game, 1st, against a run defense ranked 25th.

Longer bar, better unit.

Broncos with the ball

Broncos offenseChiefs defense
26th
Passing
11th
15th
Run game
9th
2nd
Pass rush
24th
24th
Third down
21st
30th
Big plays
9th
15th
Turnovers
9th
11th
Red zone
2nd

Chiefs with the ball

Chiefs offenseBroncos defense
11th
Passing
8th
1st
Run game
25th
5th
Pass rush
5th
10th
Third down
23rd
2nd
Big plays
18th
12th
Turnovers
7th
16th
Red zone
10th

Ranks run 1st (best) to 32nd, 2026 through week 7 as they stood at kickoff, close-game snaps.

Broncos scored 10 against a team total of 20: under.

Broncos scored 10 against a team total of 20: under. the spread and total, split.

Chiefs scored 31 against a team total of 22.5: over. the spread and total, split.

The situations on the schedule that fit this game.

This week · Chiefs in week 1 with the worse head coach by two tiers
129-91
this game200020052010201520202025
129 covered91 did notevery game since 1999, 59%; since 2021 36-14

The last time the Chiefs were here, Sep 3, 2000: lost to the Colts by 13 as a 3.5-point underdog.

Inside the luck line: 220 games, and shuffled results produce records like this one. Reading, not a bet; the lean is the Chiefs.

This week · Chiefs in a pick 'em against a team on a three-game cover streak with a head coach in year eight or later with the team
39-26
this game200020052010201520202025
39 covered26 did notevery game since 1999, 60%; since 2021 13-7

The last time the Chiefs were here, Oct 10, 2021: lost to the Bills by 18 as a 2.5-point favorite.

Inside the luck line: 65 games, and shuffled results produce records like this one. Reading, not a bet; the lean is the Chiefs.

This week · Chiefs on Monday in the first four weeks with a head coach in year eight or later with the team
27-19
this game200020052010201520202025
27 covered19 did notevery game since 1999, 59%; since 2021 7-2

The last time the Chiefs were here, Sep 28, 2020: beat the Ravens by 14 as a 3.5-point underdog.

Inside the luck line: 46 games, and shuffled results produce records like this one. Reading, not a bet; the lean is the Chiefs.

This week · The total in week 1 in a pick 'em
46-60
this game200020052010201520202025
46 went over60 stayed underevery game since 1999, 43%; since 2021 8-16

Inside the luck line: 106 games, and shuffled results produce records like this one. Reading, not a bet; the lean is the under.

Searched this week: 1,157 spread situations and 92 on the total, every attribute on the schedule alone, in pairs and in triples, against every game since 1999. The luck line sits at z 3.92 on the spread and 3.37 on the total.

No player line on this game was archived with a read.

Nothing was on the official card for this game.

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