Week 1 · Sunday 13:00 ET

Buccaneers at Bengals

Buccaneers -3.5Paycor Stadium · outdoors
Total 50.5

The read

A 50.5 that is among the highest on the board. It opened Buccaneers -3.5 and 50.5 and has moved four times since, most recently on 2026-09-05.

Who is on the field

Tampa Bay

Cincinnati

The Team HQ depth chart itself, not a copy. Offense and defense toggle inside it, and you can drag players to rearrange. Cross it against the injuries below.

Tampa Bay on its own page →Cincinnati on its own page →

Who is not playing

Tampa Bay

Emeka EgbukaWRToeQUESTIONABLE

Jalen McMillanWRKneeQUESTIONABLE

Sean TuckerRBQUESTIONABLE

Rueben Bain Jr.LBShoulder - AC JointQUESTIONABLE

David Sills VWRIR

Deshawn McKnightDTHamstringIR

Josh HayesCBKneeIR

Mohamed KamaraLBKneeIR

and 1 more

Cincinnati

Ja'Marr ChaseWRKneeQUESTIONABLE

Tee HigginsWRHeelQUESTIONABLE

Dax HillCBHamstringQUESTIONABLE

Myles MurphyDEQUESTIONABLE

Shemar StewartDEKneeQUESTIONABLE

Brian Parker IIOTIR

Ja'Sir TaylorCBIR

Skill players in white, because every trend and coverage read on this page assumes the man is on the field. Designations as of 2026-09-07. Anyone cleared is absent from this list entirely.

Tampa Bay depth chart →Cincinnati depth chart →

Keys to the game

Buccaneers

Send it at Flacco

Blitz rate 33.7%, 4th. Flacco falls to -0.14 EPA when blitzed, 31st of 37.

Take the shots downfield

Buccaneers hit explosive passes 9.2%, 10th. Bengals play two-high just 32.8%, 2nd-fewest.

Has to

Get off the field on early downs

Buccaneers are 11th-worst in early-down EPA allowed, and Bengals pass on early downs 60.5%, 2nd.

Bengals

Throw on first and second down

Bengals pass on early downs 60.5%, 2nd. Buccaneers are 11th-worst in early-down EPA allowed.

Has to

Keep Flacco clean

0.18 EPA a dropback clean, 29th of 37. Blitzed, -0.14, 31st of 37.

Has to

Keep a lid on it

Bengals play two-high 32.8%, 2nd-fewest, against the 10th explosive passing offense.

Each team in one line

BuccaneersGet pressure3rdBlitz4thLoad the box4th-lowest

BengalsGive it up5th-worstNever break a long run6th-worstNever hit a deep one7th-worstAlmost never blitzlowest

Full tendencies, 2025 regular season, ranked against all 32

Tampa Bay

How they play

They blitz33.7%blitz rate4th

and they load the box14.4%light box rate4th-lowest

and they sit in Cover 331.6%Cover 3 rate7th

Where they win and lose

They get pressure34.5%pressure rate3rd

Cincinnati

How they play

They almost never blitz17.7%blitz ratelowest

and they throw it as much as anyone64.5%pass rate2nd

and they live in shotgun82.0%shotgun rate2nd

and they rarely play two-high32.8%two-high rate2nd-lowest

Where they win and lose

They give it up+0.18EPA allowed a play5th-worst

and they never break a long run9.9%explosive run rate6th-worst

and they never hit a deep one6.9%explosive pass rate7th-worst

and they throw interceptions2.5%interception rate7th-worst

Tampa Bay tendencies →Cincinnati tendencies →

Angles that fire on this game

None of our frozen angles fire here. The slate is registered before the season and never added to mid-week, so an empty game stays empty.

Player trends that apply to this game

Ja'Marr ChaseWR has 10 of his last 10 games at home with 6+ catches.

10 of 10, 100% in this spot · 2024-2025

17 of 30, 57% in every other spot

Chase BrownRB has 8 of his last 10 games as an underdog with 50+ rushing yards.

8 of 10, 80% in this spot · 2024-2025

7 of 17, 41% in every other spot

Tee HigginsWR has 8 of his last 10 games at home with a receiving touchdown.

8 of 10, 80% in this spot · 2024-2025

12 of 28, 43% in every other spot

Baker MayfieldQB has 8 of his last 10 games outdoors as a favorite with 2+ passing touchdowns.

8 of 10, 80% in this spot · 2023-2025

22 of 43, 51% in every other spot

The second number is the point. Everyone posts the first one.

Fantasy: who to start, and who they draw

Tampa Bay

Bucky IrvingRB

60% of the carries · 22 red-zone touches

Bengals give up more to RBs than almost anyone, 6th

Emeka EgbukaWR

21% of the targets · 16 red-zone touches

Bengals are one of the hardest defenses for WRs, 27th

Cade OttonTE

16% of the targets · 7 red-zone touches

Bengals give up more to TEs than almost anyone, 1st

Cincinnati

Chase BrownRB

62% of the carries · 49 red-zone touches

Buccaneers give up more to RBs than almost anyone, 7th

Ja'Marr ChaseWR

29% of the targets · 22 red-zone touches

Noah FantTE

8% of the targets · 4 red-zone touches

Buccaneers give up more to TEs than almost anyone, 5th

Usage is last season's average share and red-zone work. The defense line is what that team actually allowed to the position, ranked against all 32. Neither is a projection.

The last time they played

2022 wk 15

Bengals at

Buccaneers34-23Bengals won, Bengals covered

Against the spread in these meetings: 1-0 to Bengals. Closing numbers, not openers.

Every meeting, with the lines →

Build this angle in the Angle Finder All games this week