Joe Burrow

Cincinnati Bengals·#9

Pos QBHt 6'4"Wt 216 lbExp 6 yrCollege LSU

Updated September 21, 2026

QB rankings →

Model Score

91.7 MODEL

2020

83.1

2021

90.7

2022

94.2

2023

88.3

2024

99.0

2025

91.7

How good he is at what he is supposed to be doing, out of 100. Not a projection of what he will do next, and not a read on his contract. Median is about 70, and a 95 is rare. How it is built →

Season Stats · 1 games

254

Pass Yds

Pass TD

INT

71.4%

Comp %

Rush Yds

Rush TD

14.2

Fantasy PPG

Advanced Metrics EPA & Next Gen Stats

-0.2

Total EPA

-0.073

EPA / dropback

2.54s

Time to throw

6.8

Avg air yards

14.3%

Aggressiveness

34 yd

Longest comp (air)

Draft & College

Round 1, pick 1 · Cincinnati Bengals · 2020

Ohio State (Big Ten)

Taken

where he actually went

Consensus board

1st

average of the public big boards that spring

Our college model

#10

among QB in our college data

He went about where consensus had him.

In college · 2016-2019 · 36 games

8,497 pass yds, 60 TD, 9 INT, 64.2% completions

Covers the college seasons in our data, which does not always reach back to a player's first year.

Comps

College career

his college career vs theirs

Ryan Higgins80%Bo Nix77%Jayden Daniels75%

STM Take

Burrow at STTM #13 tier 4 in 2025 is the one rank on the list driven almost entirely by games-played risk. The 2024 statistical sweep (yards, TDs, completion percentage) was a tier-1 profile; the 2025 drop reflects the time he missed, not a true skill regression. The career baseline is a healthy tier-1 quarterback; the question is whether the body will let that show up for 17 games.

Burrow was born in Ames, Iowa, transferred from Ohio State to LSU, and won the 2019 Heisman Trophy plus the College Football Playoff national title in a single season at LSU. Cincinnati drafted him first overall in 2020. He has since won NFL Comeback Player of the Year twice (2021 and 2024), made three Pro Bowls, led the league in passing yards, touchdowns, and completion percentage in 2024, and holds the NFL career completion percentage record at 68.5 percent.

Strengths

Career 68.5 percent completion percentage is the NFL career record, and his 2024 triple crown (yards, TDs, completion percentage) is the strongest single-year case in the field outside Maye and Allen.
Two Comeback Player of the Year awards and three Pro Bowls in his first six seasons.

Concerns

STTM rank dropped from #2 tier 1 in 2024 to #13 tier 4 in 2025, almost entirely a games-played story.
Game-log gap from Week 2 to Week 13 in 2025 confirms multi-month absences are now a recurring feature, not a single-event injury.

What to watch: Games played. Every other piece of the profile prices in as tier 1; the rank only rebuilds with availability.