Joe Burrow
Cincinnati Bengals·#9Model Score
How good he is at what he is supposed to be doing, out of 100. Not a projection of what he will do next, and not a read on his contract. Median is about 70, and a 95 is rare. How it is built →
STM Take
Burrow at STTM #13 tier 4 in 2025 is the one rank on the list driven almost entirely by games-played risk. The 2024 statistical sweep (yards, TDs, completion percentage) was a tier-1 profile; the 2025 drop reflects the time he missed, not a true skill regression. The career baseline is a healthy tier-1 quarterback; the question is whether the body will let that show up for 17 games.
Burrow was born in Ames, Iowa, transferred from Ohio State to LSU, and won the 2019 Heisman Trophy plus the College Football Playoff national title in a single season at LSU. Cincinnati drafted him first overall in 2020. He has since won NFL Comeback Player of the Year twice (2021 and 2024), made three Pro Bowls, led the league in passing yards, touchdowns, and completion percentage in 2024, and holds the NFL career completion percentage record at 68.5 percent.
Strengths
- Career 68.5 percent completion percentage is the NFL career record, and his 2024 triple crown (yards, TDs, completion percentage) is the strongest single-year case in the field outside Maye and Allen.
- Two Comeback Player of the Year awards and three Pro Bowls in his first six seasons.
Concerns
- STTM rank dropped from #2 tier 1 in 2024 to #13 tier 4 in 2025, almost entirely a games-played story.
- Game-log gap from Week 2 to Week 13 in 2025 confirms multi-month absences are now a recurring feature, not a single-event injury.
What to watch: Games played. Every other piece of the profile prices in as tier 1; the rank only rebuilds with availability.
Comps
Of his 20 closest coming out: 2 stars, 7 starters, 8 backups, 3 didn't stick.
Joe Burrow Props This Weekat MIA Sun Oct 11
| Market | Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|---|
| Passing yards | 245.5 | -111 DraftKings | -113 DraftKings |
| Passing TDs | 1.5 | -153 DraftKings | +125 Fanatics |
| Completions | 23.5 | -105 BetMGM | -117 DraftKings |
| Pass attempts | 33.5 | -102 DraftKings | -125 Fanatics |
| Interceptions | 0.5 | +131 DraftKings | -162 BetRivers |
| Rushing yards | 8.5 | -114 FanDuel | -110 DraftKings |
| Longest rush | 7.5 | -120 DraftKings | -108 DraftKings |
| Anytime TD | +900 BetRivers |
Best price across 9 books as of Fri Oct 9. Lines move; check the book before you bet. This week's board · Line Room
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Joe Burrow Injury StatusNot listed
Joe Burrow is not on the injury report as of Oct 9. Source: the official NFL injury report, refreshed daily.
Joe Burrow Stats This Season · 4 games
Advanced Metrics EPA & Next Gen Stats
Draft & College
He went about where consensus had him.
Covers the college seasons in our data, which does not always reach back to a player's first year.
Joe Burrow Fantasy Outlook
Joe Burrow scored 79 PPR points, 19.6 per game this season. Compare him against any QB and track weekly rankings in our fantasy tools.