Week 1 · Sunday 20:20 ET
Cowboys at 
Giants
Giants -3.0MetLife Stadium · outdoors
Total 48.5
Total 48.5
The read
A 48.5 that is among the highest on the board and a division game. It opened Giants -2.5 and 48.5, moved once on 2026-09-07, and has sat still for the 36 days we have been watching.
Who is on the field
The Team HQ depth chart itself, not a copy. Offense and defense toggle inside it, and you can drag players to rearrange. Cross it against the injuries below.
Who is not playing
New York
Malik NabersWRKnee - ACLQUESTIONABLE
Theo JohnsonTEShoulderQUESTIONABLE
Tyrone Tracy Jr.RBNeckQUESTIONABLE
Colton HoodCBQuadricepsQUESTIONABLE
Dru PhillipsCBKneeQUESTIONABLE
Francis MauigoaOTUpper BodyQUESTIONABLE
Greg Newsome IICBKneeQUESTIONABLE
John Michael Schmitz Jr.CConcussionQUESTIONABLEand 4 more
Skill players in white, because every trend and coverage read on this page assumes the man is on the field. Designations as of 2026-09-07. Anyone cleared is absent from this list entirely.
Keys to the game
CowboysFind Pickens against man
1.00 EPA a target vs man, 2nd of 104. Giants play man 39.9%, 7th.
Send it at Dart
Blitz rate 28.5%, 9th. Dart falls to -0.01 EPA when blitzed, 23rd of 37.
Load the box
Cowboys load the box 4.1%, 10th-most. Giants run it: 53.4% pass rate, 6th-fewest.
GiantsRun at the Cowboys zone eyes
Explosive run rate 11.7%, 10th. Cowboys play man 25.0%, 24th: lighter boxes, backs turned.
Has to
Change the picture on Pickens
He is 0.42 against zone. Giants play it 60.1%, 26th.
Has to
Keep Dart clean
0.21 EPA a dropback clean, 24th of 37. Blitzed, -0.01, 23rd of 37.
Not a key: the Giants blitz (8th) on Prescott. He drops when blitzed like everyone, but from 12th in the league.
Not a key: pace. Cowboys 1st and Giants 5th in plays a game. Both play fast, so the total leans over.
Each team in one line
CowboysGive it up2nd-worstNever take it away3rd-worstComplete everything4thPlay fast1stGiantsRun it well5thCannot complete a pass6th-worstNever take it away8th-worstGo no-huddle3rdFull tendencies, 2025 regular season, ranked against all 32
Dallas
How they play
They play fast64.9plays a game1st
and they load the box15.0%light box rate5th-lowest
Where they win and lose
They give it up+0.24EPA allowed a play2nd-worst
and they never take it away0.9%interception rate3rd-worst
and they complete everything64.1%completion rate4th
and they move the ball+0.10EPA a play5th
New York
How they play
They go no-huddle21.4%no-huddle rate3rd
and they run it more than almost anyone53.4%pass rate6th-lowest
and they live in shotgun76.7%shotgun rate7th
and they play man39.9%man coverage rate7th
Where they win and lose
They run it well+0.04EPA a run5th
and they cannot complete a pass56.1%completion rate6th-worst
and they never take it away1.4%interception rate8th-worst
Angles that fire on this game
Underdog vs a team looking ahead to a division game
Take home · 991-915 in testing
TEST, expectation null. Surfaced by the 2026-08-28 depth-4 sweep INSIDE the luck envelope; the model-free base rate is 50.3%. Registered to settle it forward, not because we believe it.
52.0%
Model lean vs a team looking ahead to a division game
Take home · 764-680 in testing · our number is 4.4 points off the market
TEST, expectation null. Same sweep, same luck-envelope caveat as PR-004.
52.9%
Frozen before the season and graded in public whatever happens. Where we do not believe one, it says so above in its own words.
Player trends that apply to this game
Dak PrescottQB has 9 of his last 10 games in prime time as an underdog with 250+ passing yards.9 of 10, 90% in this spot · 2023-2025
23 of 39, 59% in every other spot
Share this card
Javonte WilliamsRB has 8 of his last 10 games in prime time with 50+ rushing yards.8 of 10, 80% in this spot · 2024-2025
14 of 34, 41% in every other spot
Share this card
George PickensWR has 8 of his last 10 games as an underdog with 50+ receiving yards.8 of 10, 80% in this spot · 2025
22 of 35, 63% in every other spot
Share this card
CeeDee LambWR has 7 of his last 10 games in prime time with 75+ receiving yards.7 of 10, 70% in this spot · 2024-2025
17 of 34, 50% in every other spot
Share this cardThe second number is the point. Everyone posts the first one.
Fantasy: who to start, and who they draw
Dallas
Giants give up more to RBs than almost anyone, 3rd
New York
Cowboys give up more to RBs than almost anyone, 2nd
Cowboys give up more to WRs than almost anyone, 1st
Usage is last season's average share and red-zone work. The defense line is what that team actually allowed to the position, ranked against all 32. Neither is a projection.
The last time they played
2025 wk 18 Cowboys at Giants17-34Giants won, Giants covered
Cowboys at Giants17-34Giants won, Giants covered2025 wk 2 Giants at Cowboys37-40Cowboys won, Giants covered
Giants at Cowboys37-40Cowboys won, Giants covered2024 wk 13 Giants at Cowboys20-27Cowboys won, Cowboys covered
Giants at Cowboys20-27Cowboys won, Cowboys covered2024 wk 4 Cowboys at Giants20-15Cowboys won, Giants covered
Cowboys at Giants20-15Cowboys won, Giants covered2023 wk 10 Giants at Cowboys17-49Cowboys won, Cowboys covered
Giants at Cowboys17-49Cowboys won, Cowboys coveredAgainst the spread in these meetings: 2-3 to Cowboys. Closing numbers, not openers.