Week 1 · Sunday 13:00 ET

Falcons at Steelers

Falcons -3.5Acrisure Stadium · outdoors
Total 42.5

The read

Falcons laying 3.5 on the road. It opened Falcons -3 and 41.5 and has moved 8 times since, most recently on 2026-09-05.

Who is on the field

Atlanta

Pittsburgh

The Team HQ depth chart itself, not a copy. Offense and defense toggle inside it, and you can drag players to rearrange. Cross it against the injuries below.

Atlanta on its own page →Pittsburgh on its own page →

Who is not playing

Atlanta

Michael Penix Jr.QBKnee - ACLOUT

Anterio ThompsonDTOUT

James Pearce Jr.LBSuspensionSUSPENDED

Billy Bowman Jr.CBAchillesQUESTIONABLE

and 1 more

Pittsburgh

Donte KentCBOUT

Ben SkowronekWRConcussionQUESTIONABLE

DK MetcalfWRQUESTIONABLE

Michael Pittman Jr.WRHamstringQUESTIONABLE

Jalen RamseyCBKneeQUESTIONABLE

Jaquan BriskerSQUESTIONABLE

DeShon ElliottSIR

Jack DriscollOTIR

and 1 more

Skill players in white, because every trend and coverage read on this page assumes the man is on the field. Designations as of 2026-09-07. Anyone cleared is absent from this list entirely.

Atlanta depth chart →Pittsburgh depth chart →

Keys to the game

Falcons

Find Pitts against man

0.44 EPA a target vs man, 23rd of 104. Steelers play man 35.2%, 11th.

Send it at Rodgers

Blitz rate 35.2%, 2nd. Rodgers falls to -0.17 EPA when blitzed, 33rd of 37.

Has to

Get off the field on early downs

Falcons are 18th-worst in early-down EPA allowed, and Steelers pass on early downs 54.4%, 8th.

Steelers

Send it at Tagovailoa, and get there

Tagovailoa falls to 0.06 blitzed, but Steelers are only 20th at turning the blitz into pressure.

Throw on first and second down

Steelers pass on early downs 54.4%, 8th. Falcons are 18th-worst in early-down EPA allowed.

Has to

Change the picture on Pitts

He is 0.06 against zone. Steelers play it 64.8%, 22nd.

Each team in one line

FalconsGet sacks4thProtect the quarterback5thMake throws hard5thBlitz2nd

SteelersNever hit a deep one8th-worstPlay slow5th-slowestThrow it as much as anyone7th

Full tendencies, 2025 regular season, ranked against all 32

Atlanta

How they play

They blitz35.2%blitz rate2nd

and they load the box14.4%light box rate3rd-lowest

and they live in shotgun80.5%shotgun rate4th

Where they win and lose

They get sacks9.0%sack rate4th

and they protect the quarterback4.5%sacks taken5th

and they make throws hard52.5%completion rate allowed5th

Pittsburgh

How they play

They play slow57.4plays a game5th-slowest

and they throw it as much as anyone59.5%pass rate7th

and they blitz30.7%blitz rate7th

Where they win and lose

They never hit a deep one7.1%explosive pass rate8th-worst

Atlanta tendencies →Pittsburgh tendencies →

Angles that fire on this game

None of our frozen angles fire here. The slate is registered before the season and never added to mid-week, so an empty game stays empty.

Player trends that apply to this game

Rico DowdleRB has 6 of his last 8 games at home outdoors with 50+ rushing yards.

6 of 8, 75% in this spot · 2025

12 of 41, 29% in every other spot

Michael PittmanWR has 7 of his last 9 games outdoors as an underdog with 6+ catches.

7 of 9, 78% in this spot · 2023-2025

24 of 56, 43% in every other spot

Aaron RodgersQB has 7 of his last 10 games as an underdog with 2+ passing touchdowns.

7 of 10, 70% in this spot · 2024-2025

7 of 21, 33% in every other spot

Tua TagovailoaQB has 7 of his last 10 games on the road outdoors with 2+ passing touchdowns.

7 of 10, 70% in this spot · 2023-2025

15 of 36, 42% in every other spot

The second number is the point. Everyone posts the first one.

Fantasy: who to start, and who they draw

Atlanta

Bijan RobinsonRB

62% of the carries · 49 red-zone touches

Steelers are one of the hardest defenses for RBs, 30th

Drake LondonWR

27% of the targets · 16 red-zone touches

Steelers give up more to WRs than almost anyone, 2nd

Kyle PittsTE

20% of the targets · 13 red-zone touches

Pittsburgh

Jaylen WarrenRB

58% of the carries · 45 red-zone touches

DK MetcalfWR

20% of the targets · 14 red-zone touches

Pat FreiermuthTE

10% of the targets · 9 red-zone touches

Falcons are one of the hardest defenses for TEs, 26th

Usage is last season's average share and red-zone work. The defense line is what that team actually allowed to the position, ranked against all 32. Neither is a projection.

The last time they played

2024 wk 1

Steelers at

Falcons18-10Steelers won, Steelers covered

2022 wk 13

Steelers at

Falcons19-16Steelers won, Steelers covered

Against the spread in these meetings: 0-2 to Falcons. Closing numbers, not openers.

Every meeting, with the lines →

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