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Week 1 · Sunday Sep 13 · Final

FalconsatSteelers

FinalATL 13, PIT 20Steelers by 7
SpreadPIT -6.5Steelers covered
Total40.5stayed under, 33 points
OpenedPIT -3moved 3.5 points by kickoff

The run game. Expect the Falcons to run it until the Steelers prove they can stop it.

Sunday: Falcons ran for 120 yards on 31 carries.

The model's reads, Over 42.5: it lost.

The depth charts as they stand today.

Falcons run game, 8th, against a run defense ranked 26th.

Longer bar, better unit.

Falcons with the ball

Falcons offenseSteelers defense
29th
Passing
14th
8th
Run game
26th
7th
Pass rush
17th
26th
Third down
8th
7th
Big plays
31st
30th
Turnovers
10th
4th
Red zone
5th

Steelers with the ball

Steelers offenseFalcons defense
28th
Passing
16th
3rd
Run game
8th
22nd
Pass rush
8th
28th
Third down
18th
20th
Big plays
16th
16th
Turnovers
32nd
17th
Red zone
19th

Ranks run 1st (best) to 32nd, 2026 through week 7 as they stood at kickoff, close-game snaps.

Falcons scored 13 against a team total of 17: under.

Falcons scored 13 against a team total of 17: under. the spread and total, split.

Steelers scored 20 against a team total of 23.5: under. the spread and total, split.

The situations on the schedule that fit this game.

This week · Falcons in week 1 with the worse head coach by two tiers
129-91
this game200020052010201520202025
129 covered91 did notevery game since 1999, 59%; since 2021 36-14

The last time the Falcons were here, Sep 9, 2001: lost to the 49ers by 3 as a 3.5-point underdog.

Inside the luck line: 220 games, and shuffled results produce records like this one. Reading, not a bet; the lean is the Falcons.

This week · Steelers with a total of 41 or under off a Monday night game against a first-year head coach
40-55
this game200020052010201520202025
40 covered55 did notevery game since 1999, 42%; since 2021 8-6

The last time the Steelers were here, Sep 15, 2002: lost to the OAK by 13 as a 4-point favorite.

Inside the luck line: 95 games, and shuffled results produce records like this one. Reading, not a bet; the lean is the Falcons.

Searched this week: 1,157 spread situations and 92 on the total, every attribute on the schedule alone, in pairs and in triples, against every game since 1999. The luck line sits at z 3.92 on the spread and 3.37 on the total.

No player line on this game was archived with a read.

Nothing was on the official card for this game.