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PlayerBijan Robinson · RB, Atlanta Falcons, Model Score 96.0Be the Falcons GM

Bijan Robinson

Atlanta Falcons·#7
Pos RBHt 5'11"Wt 214 lbExp 3 yrCollege Texas
Updated October 9, 2026

Model Score

96.0 MODEL
2023
86.7
2024
96.0
2025
96.0
2026
96.0

How good he is at what he is supposed to be doing, out of 100. Not a projection of what he will do next, and not a read on his contract. Median is about 70, and a 95 is rare. How it is built →

STM Take

Robinson at STTM #5 tier 2 in 2025 with first-team All-Pro recognition is the cleanest pure-talent case at the position outside Gibbs and Henry. The Atlanta usage finally caught up to the draft capital. The 2025 game log shows real peaks (39.9 PPR Wk 17, 29.8 PPR Wk 16) and the touch-share base supports a tier-1 ceiling in 2026.

Robinson was born in Tucson, Arizona, attended Salpointe Catholic, and played three years at Texas where he finished as the Longhorns' all-time per-game rushing leader. Atlanta took him eighth overall in the 2023 NFL Draft. He has since made two Pro Bowls and earned first-team All-Pro honors in 2025, the centerpiece of an Atlanta offense built around his three-down workload.

Strengths

  • 2025 first-team All-Pro at age 23, the only RB under 25 on the current board with that recognition.
  • Three-down workload: he led ATL in both rushing and receiving usage out of the backfield, locking in the PPR floor.

Concerns

  • Atlanta's pass-game efficiency caps red-zone touch volume; TD upside is limited until the passing attack normalizes.
  • 320-plus touch pace puts him at the historical edge of the RB workload cliff.

What to watch: Snap share in negative game scripts. If it holds above 70 percent when ATL trails, the RB1-overall conversation locks in early.

Comps

Overall match
size, testing and production, same career stage
Famous comp
names you know, same point in their careers (around year 4)
Built like
measurables only, his size
Coming out
pros whose college production, size and testing looked like his

Of his 20 closest coming out: 3 stars, 4 starters, 12 backups, 1 didn't stick.

Bijan Robinson Props This Weekvs BAL Sun Oct 11

MarketLineOverUnder
Rushing yards87.5-111 DraftKings-113 DraftKings
Carries18.5-117 DraftKings-105 BetOnline
Receptions3.5-120 BetMGM+102 FanDuel
Receiving yards27.5-112 DraftKings-112 DraftKings
Longest reception12.5-108 DraftKings-120 DraftKings
Longest rush17.5-104 DraftKings-121 BetRivers
Anytime TD-230 FanDuel

Best price across 9 books as of Fri Oct 9. Lines move; check the book before you bet. This week's board · Line Room

Play Bijan's numbers on Underdog · partner link

Bijan Robinson Injury StatusNot listed

Bijan Robinson is not on the injury report as of Oct 9. Source: the official NFL injury report, refreshed daily.

Bijan Robinson Stats This Season · 4 games

4942nd
Rush Yds
45th
Rush TD
148th
Rec
1206th
Rec Yds
56th
Total TD
26.43rd
Fantasy PPG

Advanced Metrics EPA & Next Gen Stats

0.1321st
EPA / rush
1192nd
Rush yds over exp
3.35
Efficiency
2.75s
Time to line

Draft & College

Round 1, pick 8 · Atlanta Falcons · 2023
Texas (Big 12)
Taken
#8
where he actually went
Consensus board
14th
average of the public big boards that spring
Our college model
#13
among RB in our college data

He went about where consensus had him.

In college · 2020-2022 · 29 games
3,124 rush yds, 35 TD, 6.2 yds/carry, 57 rec

Covers the college seasons in our data, which does not always reach back to a player's first year.

Bijan Robinson Fantasy Outlook

Bijan Robinson scored 105 PPR points, 26.4 per game this season. Compare him against any RB and track weekly rankings in our fantasy tools.

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