Week 1 · Wednesday 20:20 ET

Patriots at Seahawks

Patriots -3.5Lumen Field · outdoors
Total 44.5

The read

Patriots laying 3.5 on the road. The market opened this at Patriots -3.5 with a 44.5 and has not touched it since 2026-07-31, across 36 daily checks.

Who is on the field

New England

Seattle

The Team HQ depth chart itself, not a copy. Offense and defense toggle inside it, and you can drag players to rearrange. Cross it against the injuries below.

New England on its own page →Seattle on its own page →

Who is not playing

New England

Brenden SchoolerSOUT

Harold Landry IIILBOUT

TreVeyon HendersonRBAnkleQUESTIONABLE

Ben BrownCKneeQUESTIONABLE

Christian BarmoreDTKneeQUESTIONABLE

Myles MontgomeryRBIR

Bryce BaringerPIR

Isaiah ItonDTIR

and 2 more

Seattle

Zach CharbonnetRBKnee - ACLOUT

Terrion ArnoldCBOUT

Tory HortonWRHamstringQUESTIONABLE

Anthony BradfordGKneeQUESTIONABLE

Josh JonesGKneeQUESTIONABLE

Nick EmmanworiSAnkleQUESTIONABLE

Ty OkadaSHamstringQUESTIONABLE

Irv CharlesWRIR

and 2 more

Skill players in white, because every trend and coverage read on this page assumes the man is on the field. Designations as of 2026-09-07. Anyone cleared is absent from this list entirely.

New England depth chart →Seattle depth chart →

Keys to the game

Patriots

Send it at Darnold, and get there

Darnold falls to 0.10 blitzed, but Patriots are only 24th at turning the blitz into pressure.

Load the box

Patriots load the box 4.1%, 9th-most. Seahawks run it: 50.8% pass rate, 2nd-fewest.

Has to

Make Darnold uncomfortable

He is 5th of 37 from a clean pocket, and Patriots get pressure only 27.6%.

Seahawks

Give Darnold a clean pocket

0.36 EPA a dropback clean, 5th of 37. Patriots get pressure 27.6%, 9th-lowest.

Take the easy throws

Seahawks complete 64.2%, 3rd. Patriots allow completions at the 9th-highest rate.

Take the shots downfield

Seahawks hit explosive passes 11.3%, 3rd. Patriots play two-high just 40.1%, 11th-fewest.

Each team in one line

PatriotsMove the ball1stThrow it well1stHit explosive passes1stNever go no-huddlelowest

SeahawksHit explosive passes3rdComplete everything3rdThrow interceptions4th-worstRun it more than almost anyone2nd-lowest

Full tendencies, 2025 regular season, ranked against all 32

New England

How they play

They never go no-huddle2.4%no-huddle ratelowest

and they run on early downs49.0%early-down pass rate7th-lowest

and they stay under center54.9%shotgun rate7th-lowest

and they play single-high58.9%single-high rate8th

Where they win and lose

They move the ball+0.16EPA a play1st

and they throw it well+0.29EPA a pass1st

and they hit explosive passes12.6%explosive pass rate1st

and they complete everything65.6%completion rate2nd

Seattle

How they play

They run it more than almost anyone50.8%pass rate2nd-lowest

and they stay under center46.2%shotgun rate2nd-lowest

and they play two-high51.5%two-high rate3rd

Where they win and lose

They hit explosive passes11.3%explosive pass rate3rd

and they complete everything64.2%completion rate3rd

and they throw interceptions3.0%interception rate4th-worst

and they get pressure34.2%pressure rate4th

New England tendencies →Seattle tendencies →

Angles that fire on this game

Underdog vs a team looking ahead to a division game

Take away · 991-915 in testing

TEST, expectation null. Surfaced by the 2026-08-28 depth-4 sweep INSIDE the luck envelope; the model-free base rate is 50.3%. Registered to settle it forward, not because we believe it.

52.0%

Model lean vs a team looking ahead to a division game

Take away · 764-680 in testing · our number is 1.7 points off the market

TEST, expectation null. Same sweep, same luck-envelope caveat as PR-004.

52.9%

Frozen before the season and graded in public whatever happens. Where we do not believe one, it says so above in its own words.

Player trends that apply to this game

Jaxon Smith-NjigbaWR has 9 of his last 10 games at home with 75+ receiving yards.

9 of 10, 90% in this spot · 2024-2025

11 of 26, 42% in every other spot

Drake MayeQB has 7 of his last 10 games on the road with 250+ passing yards.

7 of 10, 70% in this spot · 2024-2025

7 of 15, 47% in every other spot

The second number is the point. Everyone posts the first one.

Fantasy: who to start, and who they draw

New England

Rhamondre StevensonRB

32% of the carries · 33 red-zone touches

Seahawks are one of the hardest defenses for RBs, 29th

Stefon DiggsWR

19% of the targets · 12 red-zone touches

Seahawks are one of the hardest defenses for WRs, 28th

Hunter HenryTE

15% of the targets · 22 red-zone touches

Seahawks give up more to TEs than almost anyone, 2nd

Seattle

Kenneth Walker IIIRB

44% of the carries · 37 red-zone touches

Patriots are one of the hardest defenses for RBs, 27th

Jaxon Smith-NjigbaWR

33% of the targets · 17 red-zone touches

AJ BarnerTE

12% of the targets · 16 red-zone touches

Usage is last season's average share and red-zone work. The defense line is what that team actually allowed to the position, ranked against all 32. Neither is a projection.

The last time they played

2025 wk 22

Seahawks at

Patriots29-13Seahawks won, Seahawks covered

2024 wk 2

Seahawks at

Patriots23-20Seahawks won, Patriots covered

2020 wk 2

Patriots at

Seahawks30-35Seahawks won, Seahawks covered

Against the spread in these meetings: 1-2 to Patriots. Closing numbers, not openers.

Every meeting, with the lines →

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