Week 1 · Sunday 13:00 ET

Ravens at Colts

Colts -3.0Lucas Oil Stadium · outdoors
Total 47.5

The read

A first-year coach in Baltimore and a 47.5 that is among the highest on the board. It opened Colts -3.5 and 49.5 and has moved twice since, most recently on 2026-09-07.

Who is on the field

Baltimore

Indianapolis

The Team HQ depth chart itself, not a copy. Offense and defense toggle inside it, and you can drag players to rearrange. Cross it against the injuries below.

Baltimore on its own page →Indianapolis on its own page →

Who is not playing

Baltimore

Zay FlowersWRLower BodyQUESTIONABLE

Aeneas PeeblesDTQUESTIONABLE

Jay Higgins IVLBConcussionQUESTIONABLE

Nnamdi MadubuikeDTNeckQUESTIONABLE

Adam RandallRBIR

Skylar ThompsonQBIR

Bilhal KoneCBLower BodyIR

Danny PinterCKneeIR

and 1 more

Indianapolis

Cam Taylor-BrittCBSuspensionSUSPENDED

Josh DownsWRCalfQUESTIONABLE

Sean McKeonTEQUESTIONABLE

Tyler WarrenTEGroinQUESTIONABLE

A.J. HaulcySAnkleQUESTIONABLE

Charvarius WardCBBackQUESTIONABLE

Carson TowtTEIR

Coleman OwenWRConcussionIR

and 3 more

Skill players in white, because every trend and coverage read on this page assumes the man is on the field. Designations as of 2026-09-07. Anyone cleared is absent from this list entirely.

Baltimore depth chart →Indianapolis depth chart →

Keys to the game

Ravens

Find Andrews against man

0.30 EPA a target vs man, 41st of 104. Colts play man 36.5%, 8th.

Give Jackson a clean pocket

0.35 EPA a dropback clean, 7th of 37. Colts get pressure 29.4%, 12th-lowest.

Run into light boxes

Ravens pass only 48.7%, 1st-fewest. Colts show a light box 23.5%, 13th-most.

Colts

Send it at Jackson, and get there

Jackson falls to 0.11 blitzed, but Colts are only 21st at turning the blitz into pressure.

Load the box

Colts load the box 5.3%, 5th-most. Ravens run it: 48.7% pass rate, 1st-fewest.

Throw on first and second down

Colts pass on early downs 54.0%, 10th. Ravens are 9th-worst in early-down EPA allowed.

Not a key: pace. Ravens 29th and Colts 20th in plays a game. Two of the slowest offenses in football, so the total leans under.

Each team in one line

RavensBreak explosive runs1stRun it well2ndCannot get a sack2nd-worstRun it more than almost anyonelowest

ColtsRun it well3rdProtect the quarterback7thThrow interceptions8th-worstPlay man8th

Full tendencies, 2025 regular season, ranked against all 32

Baltimore

How they play

They run it more than almost anyone48.7%pass ratelowest

and they rarely play two-high34.0%two-high rate3rd-lowest

and they play slow56.2plays a game4th-slowest

Where they win and lose

They break explosive runs14.5%explosive run rate1st

and they run it well+0.10EPA a run2nd

and they cannot get a sack4.2%sack rate2nd-worst

and they get sacked9.7%sacks taken4th-worst

Indianapolis

How they play

They play man36.5%man coverage rate8th

Where they win and lose

They run it well+0.09EPA a run3rd

and they protect the quarterback5.0%sacks taken7th

and they throw interceptions2.4%interception rate8th-worst

and they cannot get a sack5.6%sack rate8th-worst

Baltimore tendencies →Indianapolis tendencies →

Angles that fire on this game

None of our frozen angles fire here. The slate is registered before the season and never added to mid-week, so an empty game stays empty.

Player trends that apply to this game

Derrick HenryRB has 10 of his last 10 games as an underdog with 50+ rushing yards.

10 of 10, 100% in this spot · 2025

17 of 27, 63% in every other spot

Zay FlowersWR has 9 of his last 10 games on the road as an underdog with 50+ receiving yards.

9 of 10, 90% in this spot · 2024-2025

18 of 29, 62% in every other spot

Jonathan TaylorRB has 9 of his last 10 games at home with 50+ rushing yards.

9 of 10, 90% in this spot · 2024-2025

18 of 25, 72% in every other spot

Josh DownsWR has 7 of his last 10 games at home as a favorite with 50+ receiving yards.

7 of 10, 70% in this spot · 2023-2025

12 of 35, 34% in every other spot

Lamar JacksonQB has 7 of his last 10 games on the road with 2+ passing touchdowns.

7 of 10, 70% in this spot · 2024-2025

13 of 28, 46% in every other spot

The second number is the point. Everyone posts the first one.

Fantasy: who to start, and who they draw

Baltimore

Derrick HenryRB

60% of the carries · 65 red-zone touches

Colts are one of the hardest defenses for RBs, 25th

Zay FlowersWR

26% of the targets · 13 red-zone touches

Colts give up more to WRs than almost anyone, 4th

Mark AndrewsTE

15% of the targets · 18 red-zone touches

Indianapolis

Jonathan TaylorRB

74% of the carries · 76 red-zone touches

Alec PierceWR

16% of the targets · 9 red-zone touches

Tyler WarrenTE

20% of the targets · 27 red-zone touches

Ravens are one of the hardest defenses for TEs, 28th

Usage is last season's average share and red-zone work. The defense line is what that team actually allowed to the position, ranked against all 32. Neither is a projection.

The last time they played

2023 wk 3

Colts at

Ravens22-19Colts won, Colts covered

2021 wk 5

Colts at

Ravens25-31Ravens won, Colts covered

2020 wk 9

Ravens at

Colts24-10Ravens won, Ravens covered

Against the spread in these meetings: 1-2 to Ravens. Closing numbers, not openers.

Every meeting, with the lines →

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