The forecast has 0.16 inches of rain. Both of those are in the range our own backtests actually move on, and both point at the under.
ATL at 
GBGB -6.5 / GB -2.55Sun 1:00 PM
CAR at 
CLECAR -2.5 / CAR -0.05Sun 1:00 PM
CIN at 
PITCIN -3.5 / PIT -1.89Sun 1:00 PM
HOU at 
INDHOU -1.5 / HOU -0.11Sun 1:00 PM
KC at 
MIAKC -10.5 / KC -4.89Sun 1:00 PM
LAC at 
BUFBUF -7 / BUF -6.25Sun 1:00 PM
NE at 
JAXJAX -3 / JAX -3.85Sun 1:00 PM
NYJ at 
DETDET -6.5 / DET -9.17Sun 1:00 PM
SEA at 
WASSEA -7.5 / SEA -2.75Sun 1:00 PM
TEN at 
NYGNYG -2.5 / NYG -4.42Sun 4:05 PM
ARI at 
SFSF -8.5 / SF -8.04Sun 4:05 PM
MIN at 
TBMIN -1.5 / TB -1.49Sun 4:25 PM
BAL at 
DALBAL -3.5 / BAL -0.91Sun 4:25 PM
LV at 
NONO -3 / NO -1.6Sun 8:20 PM
LA at 
DENLA -2.5 / DEN -1.93Mon 8:15 PM
PHI at 
CHIPHI -4.5 / CHI -0.75Depth charts and who's out
Who's out
Chiefs
Omarr Norman-Lott DTKnee - ACLOUT
Jimmy Holiday WRIR
Cooper McDonald LBKneeIR
Chris Jones DTCalfQ
L'Jarius Sneed CBKneeQ
Dolphins
Caleb Douglas WRAnkleOUT
Jaylen Wright RBFootDOUBTFUL
Kyle Louis LBKneeIR
Ronnie Harrison Jr. LBHamstringIR
Chris Bell WRKneeQ
4 more
Ryan Miller WRHipQ
JuJu Brents CBKneeQ
Robert Beal Jr. DEHamstringQ
Tucker Addington LSShoulderQ
Every read on this page assumes the man is on the field. Designations as of 2026-09-20.
The game
Chiefs ahead means Walker carries it late and Mahomes throws less; Dolphins chasing means Willis throws, and Washington, Douglas and Dulcich get the volume.
KC has to
Find Rice against zone
0.42 EPA a target vs zone, 26th of 106. Dolphins play zone 72.6%, 12th.
MIA has to
Change the picture on Rice
He is -0.30 against man. Dolphins play it 27.4%, 21st.
The model's play
Our total 41.8 vs 44.5 posted (gusts 6 mph, rain 0.43 in at kickoff). Posted Sep 20 on that forecast; the forecast for kickoff is now gusts of 9 mph.
Won 53.5% of 1,975 past bets like it. The worst case we can be 80% sure of is 52.1%, which is still short of the 52.4% break-even.
Weather at kickoff
Best price
MIA +10.5 -105 at LowVig.ag, 20 booksMIA +11.5 -115at theScore Bet KC -10.5 -105 at LowVig.ag, 20 booksbest on the boardThe matchup
Chiefs with the ballChiefs: find Rice against zone.
Chiefs27thChiefs31stnever go no-huddle 2nd-lowestpass on early downs 3rdplay light boxes 3rdblitz 5thDolphins with the ballChiefs: blitz them.
Chiefs7thChiefs18thplay slow slowestrarely play Cover 3 lowestblitz 3rdRanks are 2025 regular season, 1st to 32nd, 1st best at the job either side. top 8 bottom 8
The game plan in words, and every rank (2025 regular season)
Chiefs with the ballWhat they like to do Reid's Chiefs never go no-huddle (2nd-lowest), pass on early downs (3rd) and live in shotgun (3rd).
Where they win and lose They run it well (6th).
What the Dolphins defense brings They play light boxes (3rd), blitz (5th) and play two-high (5th) and they let everything get completed (2nd-worst), lose early downs (5th-worst) and cannot get pressure (6th-worst).
What works against them Nothing on the ledger stands out; it comes down to the matchup below.
Where the two meet Chiefs: find Rice against zone. 0.42 EPA a target vs zone, 26th of 106. Dolphins play zone 72.6%, 12th. Dolphins: send it at Mahomes, and get there. Mahomes falls to -0.10 blitzed, but Dolphins are only 27th at turning the blitz into pressure.
Dolphins with the ballWhat they like to do Hafley's Dolphins play slow (slowest).
Where they win and lose They break explosive runs (5th) and they throw interceptions (2nd-worst).
What the Chiefs defense brings They rarely play cover 3 (lowest) and blitz (3rd).
What works against them Make them throw: they give it away (2nd-worst).
Where the two meet Chiefs: blitz them. Chiefs blitz 33.8%, 3rd. Dolphins take sacks 7.3%, 15th-most.
Kansas City
Miami
The bets
What the model likes
2 more
The information
Player angles
Also posted, with no read either way: Kenneth Walker 84.5 rushing yards (over in 7 of his 30, 2024-2026), De'Von Achane 60.5 rushing yards (over in 20 of his 35, 2024-2026), Malik Willis 33.5 rushing yards (over in 5 of his 12, 2024-2026), Emmett Johnson 25.5 rushing yards, Patrick Mahomes 18.5 rushing yards (over in 16 of his 32, 2024-2026), Rashee Rice 49.5 receiving yards (over in 9 of his 13, 2024-2026), Xavier Worthy 37.5 receiving yards (over in 16 of his 32, 2024-2026), Chris Bell 22.5 receiving yards, Greg Dulcich 22.5 receiving yards (over in 7 of his 14, 2024-2026), Tyquan Thornton 20.5 receiving yards (over in 9 of his 17, 2024-2026), Emmett Johnson 10.5 receiving yards, Rashee Rice 4.5 receptions (over in 9 of his 13, 2024-2026), Travis Kelce 4.5 receptions (over in 19 of his 35, 2024-2026), Malik Washington 3.5 receptions (over in 9 of his 31, 2024-2026), Xavier Worthy 3.5 receptions (over in 14 of his 32, 2024-2026), Greg Dulcich 2.5 receptions (over in 6 of his 14, 2024-2026), Chris Bell 1.5 receptions, Emmett Johnson 1.5 receptions and Tyquan Thornton 1.5 receptions (over in 9 of his 17, 2024-2026).
Player trends
2 more player trends
Game angles
3 more game angles
First quarter: Chiefs -3 and a total of 9.5.
Game trends
A lean is where a record points. Only a record past the luck line is a bet; the rest is reading. The bar's tick is the line to beat. Confidence runs from 50, a coin flip, to 100.
Every read in full: the scores, the story and the receipts
The player lines
Over 52.5 receiving yards for Travis Kelce leads 27 lines. On 5, the player's history and the matchup agree.
Why 82
- The story Against it: the Chiefs lead big, so Mahomes throws less; the rain leans the passing game down.
- The evidence 15 of 24 (62%) against a 27% baseline, 49% after shrinking for sample size.
- Agreement 1 other signal on the same side.
- The grid No held angle applies to this line.
- The matchup MIA allow 22% more than league to TEs, 4th most.
- The price -115, which needs 53% to break even.
Why 82
- The story Against it: the Chiefs lead big, so Mahomes throws less; the rain leans the passing game down.
- The evidence 5 of 6 (83%) against a 38% baseline, 58% after shrinking for sample size.
- Agreement 1 other signal on the same side.
- The grid No held angle applies to this line.
- The matchup MIA allow 23% more than league to RBs, 5th most.
- The price -115, which needs 53% to break even.
Why 80
- The story Against it: the Chiefs lead big, so Mahomes throws less; the rain leans the passing game down.
- The evidence 4 of 6 (67%) against a 17% baseline, 41% after shrinking for sample size.
- Agreement 1 other signal on the same side.
- The grid No held angle applies to this line.
- The matchup MIA allow 18% more than league to RBs, 4th most.
- The price +110, which needs 48% to break even.
- Where it went Against the story: the Chiefs lead big, so Mahomes throws less; the rain leans the passing game down.
See all 27 player lines
Why 72
- The story No view on this one.
- The evidence 20 of 25 (80%) against a 50% baseline, 68% after shrinking for sample size.
- Agreement No other signal on this side.
- The grid No held angle applies to this line.
- The matchup KC allow 10% less than league to WRs, 24th most.
- The price -110, which needs 52% to break even.
Why 52
- The story With it: the rain leans the passing game down; the Dolphins play slow.
- The evidence 8 of 12 (67%) against a 52% baseline, 48% after shrinking for sample size.
- Agreement No other signal on this side.
- The grid No held angle applies to this line.
- The matchup KC allow 10% less than league to QBs, 27th most.
- The price -115, which needs 53% to break even.
Why 74
- The story No view on this one.
- The evidence 5 of 6 (83%) against a 41% baseline, 58% after shrinking for sample size.
- Agreement 1 other signal on the same side.
- The grid No held angle applies to this line.
- The matchup KC allow 7% less than league to RBs, 19th most.
- The price -120, which needs 55% to break even.
Why 59
- The story No view on this one.
- The evidence 4 of 6 (67%) against a 38% baseline, 41% after shrinking for sample size.
- Agreement 1 other signal on the same side.
- The grid No held angle applies to this line.
- The matchup KC allow 6% less than league to RBs, 21st most.
- The price -105, which needs 51% to break even.
Why 55
- The story Against it: the Chiefs lead big, so Mahomes throws less; the rain leans the passing game down.
- The evidence 9 of 12 (75%) against a 60% baseline, 57% after shrinking for sample size.
- Agreement 1 other signal on the same side.
- The grid No held angle applies to this line.
- The matchup MIA allow 2% more than league to QBs, 15th most.
- The price -115, which needs 53% to break even.
Lines from Bovada as of 2026-09-25. A record is the player against the consensus closing line, every game since 2023, graded on the box score. Overs hit 46 to 48% league-wide; that is the bar, not 50. "Player and matchup agree" means he clears this number 60%+ in the situation this game puts him in AND the opponent allows 10%+ over league to his position. None of these has a graded record yet.
Player trends
Achane: 10 of his last 10 games outdoors as an underdog with 50+ rushing yards.
De'Von AchaneRB outdoors as an underdog with 50+ rushing yardsWhy 80
- The story Against it: the Dolphins chase, so Achane carries it less; the Dolphins play slow.
- The evidence 10 of 10 (100%) against a 45% baseline, 86% after shrinking for sample size.
- Agreement 2 other signals on the same side.
Kenneth Walker IIIRB as a favorite with 50+ rushing yardsWhy 62
- The story With it: the Chiefs lead, so Walker carries it late; the weather leans the running game up.
- The evidence 8 of 10 (80%) against a 50% baseline, 60% after shrinking for sample size.
- Agreement No other signal on this side.
See all 3 player trends
Patrick MahomesQB on the road as a favorite with 250+ passing yardsWhy 57
- The story Against it: the Chiefs lead big, so Mahomes throws less; the rain leans the passing game down.
- The evidence 8 of 10 (80%) against a 58% baseline, 60% after shrinking for sample size.
- Agreement 1 other signal on the same side.
The second number is the point. Everyone posts the first one.
Team trends
The last time the Chiefs were here, Dec 28, 2008: lost to the Bengals by 10 as a 1.5-point underdog.
Inside the luck line: 47 games, and shuffled results produce records like this one. Reading, not a bet; the lean is the Chiefs.
The last time the Chiefs were here, Sep 7, 2008: lost to the Patriots by 7 as a 16-point underdog.
Inside the luck line: 125 games, and shuffled results produce records like this one. Reading, not a bet; the lean is the Chiefs.
See all 7 team trends
The last time the Dolphins were here, Nov 26, 2007: lost to the Steelers by 3 as a 15-point underdog.
Inside the luck line: 134 games, and shuffled results produce records like this one. Reading, not a bet; the lean is the Chiefs.
Inside the luck line: 125 games, and shuffled results produce records like this one. Reading, not a bet; the lean is the under.
Inside the luck line: 59 games, and shuffled results produce records like this one. Reading, not a bet; the lean is the over.
Kansas City have gone over as a favorite of 7 or more on the roadOn totals of 41.5 to 53.5; this game is 45.5, inside that.
Why 72
- The evidence 15 of 20 (75%) against a 40% baseline, 61% after shrinking for sample size.
- Agreement No other signal on this side.
Against the spread and the total, as far back as the current head coach and starting quarterback go (at least three seasons; each card says how far, and what changed). The second bar is the same team everywhere else, which is the number that tells you whether the first one means anything.
Model plays carry a live record. Prop spots and trends are situational reads, and no prop verdict has a graded record yet. When two sections disagree, both stay.
History
Last meetings
- 2023 wk 19Dolphins at ChiefsChiefs won, Chiefs covered7-26
- 2023 wk 9Dolphins at ChiefsChiefs won, Chiefs covered14-21
- 2020 wk 14Chiefs at DolphinsChiefs won, Dolphins covered33-27
Against the spread in these meetings: 2-1 to Chiefs, on closing numbers.
The card
Betting PassThe number. The market has the Chiefs by 10.5 at a total of 45.5: Chiefs 28, Dolphins 17.5 on paper.
How it plays. The total of 45.5 is ordinary. Dolphins play slow (32nd in plays a game). The forecast has 0.16 inches of rain, which leans the passing game down. The ball goes to the ground, so Walker and Achane carry it more; the books raise rushing lines for weather (rushing overs 49% since 2019) and do not cut passing lines enough (passing overs 33% in wind), so the passing unders are the edge and the rushing overs are the story at a fair price.
What changed. Chiefs: no starter on the report. Dolphins: WR Caleb Douglas out; WR Chris Bell questionable.
Model favorites
Two favorites from 27 signals: a side and a player line. None sized at this price. Data as of: forecast Fri 12:00 PM ET; injuries Fri 11:49 AM ET; model Fri 12:04 PM ET.
A side
3 reasons for, 1 againstA player line
2 reasons for, 1 againstHow the score works
Score is how much we trust a bet. 50 is a coin flip; the number is how far past it the evidence pushes: reasons for minus reasons against, and a reason from something with a years-long record counts more than a trend. Units follow it: a bet backed by a tracked record is 1 unit, 1.5 at 80 or more; a bet whose logic is sound but unproven is half a unit, and only at plus money or alongside a 1-unit bet on the same game. Click a bet for its reasons.