New: Be a GM College lets you run your NIL budget, fight the portal, and play the season. Try it. →
StickToTheModel
FreeWhat's your angle? · type any trend and see its record in every NFL game since 1999Test an angle
Week 3 · Sunday Sep 27 · Final

TexansatColts

FinalHOU 17, IND 19Colts by 2
SpreadHOU -1.5Colts covered
Total41.5stayed under, 36 points
OpenedHOU -2.5moved 1 points by kickoff

The passing game. Expect the Texans to attack through the air all day.

Sunday: Texans threw for 167 yards and 1 touchdown.

The model's reads, Over 42.5: it lost.

The depth charts as they stand today.

Texans passing game, 7th, against a pass defense ranked 27th.

Longer bar, better unit.

Texans with the ball

Texans offenseColts defense
7th
Passing
27th
28th
Run game
30th
4th
Pass rush
27th
21st
Third down
8th
16th
Big plays
29th
3rd
Turnovers
30th
18th
Red zone
16th

Colts with the ball

Colts offenseTexans defense
27th
Passing
21st
7th
Run game
23rd
15th
Pass rush
16th
14th
Third down
17th
25th
Big plays
30th
26th
Turnovers
26th
17th
Red zone
27th

Ranks run 1st (best) to 32nd, 2026 through week 9 as they stood at kickoff, close-game snaps.

Texans scored 17 against a team total of 21.5: under.

Texans scored 17 against a team total of 21.5: under. the spread and total, split.

Colts scored 19 against a team total of 20: under. the spread and total, split.

The situations on the schedule that fit this game.

This week · Texans in a pick 'em after three straight misses against the spread with the worse quarterback by two tiers
56-32
this game200020052010201520202025
56 covered32 did notevery game since 1999, 64%; since 2021 18-13

The last time the Texans were here, Sep 29, 2013: lost to the Seahawks by 3 as a 1-point underdog.

Inside the luck line: 88 games, and shuffled results produce records like this one. Reading, not a bet; the lean is the Texans.

This week · Colts against a team that has missed three straight covers in the first four weeks with the better quarterback by two tiers
69-88
this game200020052010201520202025
69 covered88 did notevery game since 1999, 44%; since 2021 18-20

The last time the Colts were here, Sep 9, 2001: beat the Jets by 21 as a 1.5-point favorite.

Inside the luck line: 157 games, and shuffled results produce records like this one. Reading, not a bet; the lean is the Texans.

Searched this week: 1,571 spread situations and 77 on the total, every attribute on the schedule alone, in pairs and in triples, against every game since 1999. The luck line sits at z 4.03 on the spread and 3.35 on the total.

No player line on this game was archived with a read.

Nothing was on the official card for this game.