ATL at 
GBGB -6.5 / GB -2.55Sun 1:00 PM
CAR at 
CLECAR -2.5 / CAR -0.05Sun 1:00 PM
CIN at 
PITCIN -3.5 / PIT -1.89Sun 1:00 PM
HOU at 
INDHOU -1.5 / HOU -0.11Sun 1:00 PM
KC at 
MIAKC -10.5 / KC -4.89Sun 1:00 PM
LAC at 
BUFBUF -7 / BUF -6.25Sun 1:00 PM
NE at 
JAXJAX -3 / JAX -3.85Sun 1:00 PM
NYJ at 
DETDET -6.5 / DET -9.17Sun 1:00 PM
SEA at 
WASSEA -7.5 / SEA -2.75Sun 1:00 PM
TEN at 
NYGNYG -2.5 / NYG -4.42Sun 4:05 PM
ARI at 
SFSF -8.5 / SF -8.04Sun 4:05 PM
MIN at 
TBMIN -1.5 / TB -1.49Sun 4:25 PM
BAL at 
DALBAL -3.5 / BAL -0.91Sun 4:25 PM
LV at 
NONO -3 / NO -1.6Sun 8:20 PM
LA at 
DENLA -2.5 / DEN -1.93Mon 8:15 PM
PHI at 
CHIPHI -4.5 / CHI -0.75Depth charts and who's out
Who's out
Texans
M.J. Stewart SQuadricepsOUT
Henry To'oTo'o LBShoulderIR
Kayden McDonald DTAnkleIR
Nico Collins WRHamstringQ
Ed Ingram GGroinQ
3 more
Jadeveon Clowney DEKneeQ
Jake Hummel LBGroinQ
Trent Brown OTKneeQ
Colts
Alec Pierce WRHeelOUT
Carson Towt TEIR
D.J. Montgomery WRAbdomenIR
Will Mallory TEThumbIR
Micheal Clemons DEToeIR
2 more
Ashton Dulin WRAnkleQ
Charvarius Ward CBGroinQ
Every read on this page assumes the man is on the field. Designations as of 2026-09-20.
The game
Texans ahead means Montgomery carries it late; Colts chasing means Jones throws, and Slayton, Downs and Warren get the volume.
HOU has to
Go get the ball
Texans take it away 3.1%, 3rd. Colts throw picks 2.4%, 8th-most.
IND has to
Load the box
Colts load the box 5.3%, 4th-most. Texans run it: 57.0% pass rate, 17th-fewest.
The model's play
Our total 43.6 vs 42.5 posted (indoors)
Won 53.5% of 1,975 past bets like it. The worst case we can be 80% sure of is 52.1%, which is still short of the 52.4% break-even.
Best price
IND +1.5 +100 at LowVig.ag, 20 booksIND +2.5 -110at ReBet HOU -1.5 -110 at LowVig.ag, 20 booksHOU -1 -115at BetUSThe matchup
Texans with the ballColts: send it at Stroud, and get there.
Texans21stplay fast 6thColts with the ballTexans: go get the ball.
Texans1stTexans3rdColts17thTexans3rdload the box lowestrarely play Cover 3 4th-lowestRanks are 2025 regular season, 1st to 32nd, 1st best at the job either side. top 8 bottom 8
The game plan in words, and every rank (2025 regular season)
Texans with the ballWhat they like to do Ryans's Texans play fast (6th).
Where they win and lose They cannot run it (3rd-worst) and never break a long run (3rd-worst).
What the Colts defense brings A middle-of-the-league defense in how it plays and how it holds up.
What works against them Make them run it (3rd-worst). Load the box: they do not break long runs (3rd-worst).
Where the two meet Colts: send it at Stroud, and get there. Stroud falls to 0.00 blitzed, but Colts are only 21st at turning the blitz into pressure. Colts: load the box. Colts load the box 5.3%, 5th-most. Texans run it: 57.0% pass rate, 17th-fewest.
Colts with the ballWhat they like to do Steichen's Colts are middle of the league in how they play.
Where they win and lose They run it well (3rd).
What the Texans defense brings They load the box (lowest) and rarely play cover 3 (4th-lowest) and they shut offenses down (1st), take the ball away (3rd) and make throws hard (3rd).
What works against them Nothing on the ledger stands out; it comes down to the matchup below.
Where the two meet Texans: go get the ball. Texans take it away 3.1%, 3rd. Colts throw picks 2.4%, 8th-most.
Houston
Indianapolis
The bets
What the model likes
The information
Player angles
Also posted, with no read either way: C.J. Stroud 235.5 passing yards (over in 15 of his 33, 2024-2026), Jonathan Taylor 78.5 rushing yards (over in 20 of his 33, 2024-2026), David Montgomery 48.5 rushing yards (over in 13 of his 33, 2024-2026), Woody Marks 28.5 rushing yards (over in 11 of his 18, 2025-2026), Daniel Jones 11.5 rushing yards (over in 13 of his 25, 2024-2026), Dalton Schultz 51.5 receiving yards (over in 11 of his 36, 2024-2026), Josh Downs 48.5 receiving yards (over in 15 of his 32, 2024-2026), Tyler Warren 42.5 receiving yards (over in 10 of his 19, 2025-2026), Xavier Hutchinson 39.5 receiving yards (over in 3 of his 32, 2024-2026), Kayshon Boutte 35.5 receiving yards (over in 12 of his 31, 2024-2026), Keenan Allen 33.5 receiving yards (over in 21 of his 34, 2024-2026), Jaylin Noel 27.5 receiving yards (over in 6 of his 16, 2025-2026), Laquon Treadwell 16.5 receiving yards, Jared Wayne 13.5 receiving yards, David Montgomery 8.5 receiving yards (over in 24 of his 33, 2024-2026), Dalton Schultz 5.5 receptions (over in 7 of his 36, 2024-2026), Keenan Allen 3.5 receptions (over in 24 of his 34, 2024-2026), Xavier Hutchinson 3.5 receptions (over in 2 of his 32, 2024-2026), Jaylin Noel 2.5 receptions (over in 4 of his 16, 2025-2026), Kayshon Boutte 2.5 receptions (over in 14 of his 31, 2024-2026), David Montgomery 1.5 receptions (over in 18 of his 33, 2024-2026), Jared Wayne 1.5 receptions and Laquon Treadwell 1.5 receptions.
Player trends
2 more player trends
Game angles
2 more game angles
First quarter: Colts -0.5 and a total of 7.5.
Game trends
A lean is where a record points. Only a record past the luck line is a bet; the rest is reading. The bar's tick is the line to beat. Confidence runs from 50, a coin flip, to 100.
Every read in full: the scores, the story and the receipts
The player lines
Under 12.5 receiving yards for Woody Marks leads 31 lines. On 3, the player's history and the matchup agree.
Why 75
- The story Against it: the Texans play fast.
- The evidence 7 of 8 (88%) against a 50% baseline, 66% after shrinking for sample size.
- Agreement 1 other signal on the same side.
- The grid No held angle applies to this line.
- The matchup IND allow 12% less than league to RBs, 24th most.
- The price -115, which needs 53% to break even.
Why 54
- The story Against it: the Texans play fast.
- The evidence 3 of 5 (60%) against a 39% baseline, 33% after shrinking for sample size.
- Agreement No other signal on this side.
- The grid No held angle applies to this line.
- The matchup IND allow 23% less than league to QBs, 29th most.
- The price -120, which needs 55% to break even.
Why 52
- The story Against it: Pierce is out, so the targets move.
- The evidence 4 of 5 (80%) against a 56% baseline, 51% after shrinking for sample size.
- Agreement No other signal on this side.
- The grid No held angle applies to this line.
- The matchup HOU allow 12% less than league to WRs, 29th most.
- The price -105, which needs 51% to break even.
See all 31 player lines
Why 68
- The story Against it: Pierce is out, so the targets move.
- The evidence 9 of 10 (90%) against a 61% baseline, 72% after shrinking for sample size.
- Agreement 1 other signal on the same side.
- The grid No held angle applies to this line.
- The matchup HOU allow 5% less than league to RBs, 17th most.
- The price -110, which needs 52% to break even.
Why 58
- The story Against it: the Texans play fast.
- The evidence 6 of 8 (75%) against a 50% baseline, 52% after shrinking for sample size.
- Agreement 1 other signal on the same side.
- The grid No held angle applies to this line.
- The matchup IND allow 6% less than league to RBs, 21st most.
- The price +125, which needs 44% to break even.
Why 55
- The story Against it: Pierce is out, so the targets move.
- The evidence 10 of 10 (100%) against a 87% baseline, 86% after shrinking for sample size.
- Agreement 1 other signal on the same side.
- The grid No held angle applies to this line.
- The matchup HOU allow 3% less than league to RBs, 16th most.
- The price -170, which needs 63% to break even.
Why 54
- The story No view on this one.
- The evidence 5 of 7 (71%) against a 44% baseline, 47% after shrinking for sample size.
- Agreement No other signal on this side.
- The grid No held angle applies to this line.
- The matchup HOU allow 6% less than league to QBs, 21st most.
- The price -115, which needs 53% to break even.
Why 51
- The story Against it: Pierce is out, so the targets move.
- The evidence 4 of 6 (67%) against a 46% baseline, 41% after shrinking for sample size.
- Agreement No other signal on this side.
- The grid No held angle applies to this line.
- The matchup HOU allow 5% less than league to TEs, 21st most.
- The price -110, which needs 52% to break even.
Lines from Bovada as of 2026-09-25. A record is the player against the consensus closing line, every game since 2023, graded on the box score. Overs hit 46 to 48% league-wide; that is the bar, not 50. "Player and matchup agree" means he clears this number 60%+ in the situation this game puts him in AND the opponent allows 10%+ over league to his position. None of these has a graded record yet.
Player trends
Collins: 8 of his last 8 games in division games as a favorite with 75+ receiving yards.
Nico CollinsWR in division games as a favorite with 75+ receiving yardsWhy 77
- The story With it: the Texans play fast.
- The evidence 8 of 8 (100%) against a 38% baseline, 83% after shrinking for sample size.
- Agreement 1 other signal on the same side.
Jonathan TaylorRB at home with 50+ rushing yardsWhy 54
- The story No view on this one.
- The evidence 9 of 10 (90%) against a 73% baseline, 72% after shrinking for sample size.
- Agreement 1 other signal on the same side.
How this is graded
The second number is the point. Everyone posts the first one.
Team trends
The last time the Colts were here, Dec 30, 2000: lost to the Dolphins by 6 as a 1.5-point favorite.
Inside the luck line: 64 games, and shuffled results produce records like this one. Reading, not a bet; the lean is the Texans.
The last time the Colts were here, Nov 22, 2009: beat the Ravens by 2 as a 1-point favorite.
Inside the luck line: 127 games, and shuffled results produce records like this one. Reading, not a bet; the lean is the Colts.
See all 8 team trends
The last team here, the Dolphins, Oct 1, 2000: beat the Bengals by 15 as a 7-point favorite.
Inside the luck line: 38 games, and shuffled results produce records like this one. Reading, not a bet; the lean is the Colts.
Inside the luck line: 165 games, and shuffled results produce records like this one. Reading, not a bet; the lean is the under.
Indianapolis have gone over at home when our model likes themOn totals of 40 to 48.5; this game is 42.5, inside that.
On the card, 1uWhy 59
- The evidence 11 of 15 (73%) against a 55% baseline, 57% after shrinking for sample size.
- Agreement 2 other signals on the same side.
- Where it went On the card, 1u.
Indianapolis have gone over as a home underdogOn totals of 40 to 49; this game is 42.5, inside that.
On the card, 1uWhy 57
- The evidence 10 of 14 (71%) against a 56% baseline, 54% after shrinking for sample size.
- Agreement 2 other signals on the same side.
- Where it went On the card, 1u.
Houston have gone under as a favorite after a lossOn totals of 39.5 to 45.5; this game is 42.5, inside that.
Why 56
- The evidence 9 of 11 (82%) against a 58% baseline, 63% after shrinking for sample size.
- Agreement No other signal on this side.
Against the spread and the total, as far back as the current head coach and starting quarterback go (at least three seasons; each card says how far, and what changed). The second bar is the same team everywhere else, which is the number that tells you whether the first one means anything.
Model plays carry a live record. Prop spots and trends are situational reads, and no prop verdict has a graded record yet. When two sections disagree, both stay.
History
Last meetings
- 2025 wk 18Colts at TexansTexans won, Colts covered30-38
- 2025 wk 13Texans at ColtsTexans won, Texans covered20-16
- 2024 wk 8Colts at TexansTexans won, Colts covered20-23
Against the spread in these meetings: 2-3 to Texans, on closing numbers.
The card
Betting PassThe number. The market has the Texans by 1.5 at a total of 42.5: Texans 22, Colts 20.5 on paper.
How it plays. The total of 42.5 is ordinary. Texans play fast (6th in plays a game).
What changed. Texans: WR Nico Collins questionable. Colts: WR Alec Pierce out.
Model favorites
One favorite from 25 signals: the total. Data as of: forecast Fri 12:00 PM ET; injuries Fri 11:49 AM ET; model Fri 12:04 PM ET.
The total
3 reasons for, 1 againstHow the score works
Score is how much we trust a bet. 50 is a coin flip; the number is how far past it the evidence pushes: reasons for minus reasons against, and a reason from something with a years-long record counts more than a trend. Units follow it: a bet backed by a tracked record is 1 unit, 1.5 at 80 or more; a bet whose logic is sound but unproven is half a unit, and only at plus money or alongside a 1-unit bet on the same game. Click a bet for its reasons.