PIT at 
CLEPIT -3 / PIT -1.83Sun 9:30 AM
IND at 
WASIND -4.5 / WAS -0.51Sun 1:00 PM
ARI at 
NYGNYG -2.5 / ARI -0.22Sun 1:00 PM
DAL at 
HOUHOU -3 / HOU -3.33Sun 1:00 PM
GB at 
TBGB -1.5 / TB -1.3Sun 1:00 PM
JAX at 
CINCIN -3 / CIN -2.33Sun 1:00 PM
LA at 
PHILA -2.5 / PHI -2.67Sun 1:00 PM
NE at 
BUFBUF -5.5 / BUF -6.23Sun 1:00 PM
NYJ at 
CHICHI -3 / CHI -3.85Sun 1:00 PM
TEN at 
BALBAL -10.5 / BAL -10.07Sun 4:05 PM
MIA at 
MINMIN -10.5 / MIN -8.81Sun 4:25 PM
DEN at 
SFSF -3 / SF -3.29Sun 4:25 PM
KC at 
LVKC -6 / KC -4.69Sun 4:25 PM
LAC at 
SEASEA -6.5 / SEA -5.56Sun 8:20 PM
DET at 
CARDET -3 / DET -1.53Mon 8:15 PM
ATL at 
NONO -3.5 / NO -3.56Depth charts and who's out
Who's out
Jets
Blake Grupe PKCoach's DecisionOUT
Nahshon Wright CBCoach's DecisionOUT
Tyler Baron DEKneeOUT
Adonai Mitchell WRFingerDOUBTFUL
Breece Hall RBThighDOUBTFUL
16 more
Mason Taylor TEThumbDOUBTFUL
Dylan Parham GKneeDOUBTFUL
Arian Smith WRKnee - ACLIR
Chip Trayanum RBNeckIR
Omar Cooper Jr. WRAnkleIR
Tim Patrick WRGroinIR
Anez Cooper GShoulderIR
David Onyemata DTGroinIR
Kingsley Jonathan DEThighIR
Marcelino McCrary-Ball LBAnkleIR
Tre Brown CBFingerIR
VJ Payne SIR
Kene Nwangwu RBBackQ
Kenyon Sadiq TEQ
Kiko Mauigoa LBQuadricepsQ
Minkah Fitzpatrick SGroinQ
Bears
Anthony Johnson Jr. SOUT
Kyler Gordon CBCalfOUT
Noah Sewell LBAchillesOUT
Ozzy Trapilo OTCoach's DecisionOUT
Shemar Turner DTKnee - ACLOUT
7 more
Caleb Williams QBHamstringDOUBTFUL
Hayden Large TEIR
Coby Bryant SKneeIR
Dallis Flowers CBLegIR
Jonathan Garvin DEIR
Braxton Jones OTKneeQ
Cam Lewis CBLegQ
Every read on this page assumes the man is on the field. Designations as of 2026-09-30.
The game
The model's play
Nothing on the official card for this game.
Best price
The books have not been polled for this game yet.
The setting
The forecast has gusts to 18 miles an hour. Not enough on its own to move a total, but it is real.
The matchup
Jets with the ballBears: send it at Smith, and get there.
Bears17thnow 20thBears22ndBears1stnow 18thplay man 3rdrarely play Cover 3 6th-lowestBears with the ballBears: run the offense.
Bears32ndnow 6thBears20thnow 5thBears30thBears32ndnow 25thplay fast 2ndstay under center 5th-lowestrarely play Cover 3 5th-lowestplay man 6thBig ranks are the 2025 regular season, 1st to 32nd, 1st best at the job either side; "now" is 2026 so far (2 to 3 games a team, too few to trust alone). top 8 bottom 8
The game plan in words, and every rank (2025 regular season)
Jets with the ballWhat they like to do Glenn's Jets are middle of the league in how they play.
Where they win and lose They never hit a deep one (worst), cannot complete a pass (2nd-worst) and get sacked (3rd-worst).
What the Bears defense brings They play man (3rd) and rarely play cover 3 (6th-lowest) and they take the ball away (1st).
What works against them Keep it in front: they do not hit deep shots (worst). Play tight and make every throw hard (2nd-worst).
Where the two meet Bears: send it at Smith, and get there. Smith falls to -0.06 blitzed, but Bears are only 22nd at turning the blitz into pressure. Bears: go get the ball. Bears take it away 3.9%, 1st. Jets throw picks 2.3%, 11th-most.
Bears with the ballWhat they like to do Johnson's Bears play fast (2nd) and stay under center (5th-lowest).
Where they win and lose They protect the football (1st), break explosive runs (2nd) and protect the quarterback (3rd).
What the Jets defense brings They rarely play cover 3 (5th-lowest) and play man (6th) and they give it up (worst), never take it away (worst) and cannot get pressure (3rd-worst).
What works against them Nothing on the ledger stands out; it comes down to the matchup below.
Where the two meet Bears: run the offense. Bears are 8th in EPA a play. Jets are 1st-worst in EPA allowed. Nothing fancy needed. Bears: take the shots downfield. Bears hit explosive passes 10.0%, 7th. Jets play two-high just 42.4%, 16th-fewest.
New York
Chicago
The bets
What the model likes
Nothing on the official card for this game.
The information
All the evidence
Player angles
No posted player line has an angle firing on it this week.
Player trends
Game angles
4 more game angles
Game trends
A lean is where a record points. Only a record past the luck line is a bet; the rest is reading. The bar's tick is the line to beat. Confidence runs from 50, a coin flip, to 100.
Every read in full: the scores, the story and the receipts
The player lines
No player lines posted for this game yet.
Player trends
No player trend applies to this game.
Team trends
The last time the Jets were here, Dec 11, 2005: beat the OAK by 16 as a 3-point underdog.
Inside the luck line: 180 games, and shuffled results produce records like this one. Reading, not a bet; the lean is the Jets.
The last time the Jets were here, Nov 7, 1999: beat the Cardinals by 5 as a 7-point favorite.
Inside the luck line: 253 games, and shuffled results produce records like this one. Reading, not a bet; the lean is the Jets.
See all 6 team trends
The last time the Jets were here, Oct 12, 2008: beat the Bengals by 12 as a 9.5-point favorite.
Inside the luck line: 97 games, and shuffled results produce records like this one. Reading, not a bet; the lean is the Jets.
Inside the luck line: 60 games, and shuffled results produce records like this one. Reading, not a bet; the lean is the under.
New York have gone under with extra restOn totals of 33 to 44.5; this game is 43.5, inside that.
Why 72
- The evidence 8 of 10 (80%) against a 39% baseline, 60% after shrinking for sample size.
- Agreement No other signal on this side.
Against the spread and the total, as far back as the current head coach and starting quarterback go (at least three seasons; each card says how far, and what changed). The second bar is the same team everywhere else, which is the number that tells you whether the first one means anything.
Model plays carry a live record. Prop spots and trends are situational reads, and no prop verdict has a graded record yet. A player and stat gets one verdict on this page: when reads disagree we weigh them, this season first, and name the side with the reasons against it.
History
Last meetings
- 2022 wk 12Bears at JetsJets won, Jets covered10-31
Against the spread in these meetings: 0-1 to Bears, on closing numbers.
The card
Betting PassThe number. The market has the Bears by 3.5 at a total of 43.5: Bears 23.5, Jets 20 on paper.
How it plays. The total of 43.5 is ordinary. Bears play fast (2nd in plays a game).
What changed. Jets: RB Breece Hall doubtful; WR Adonai Mitchell doubtful; TE Kenyon Sadiq questionable; 1 starting linemen out. Bears: QB Caleb Williams doubtful.
Model favorites
One favorite from 4 signals: the total. Data as of: forecast Wed 4:10 PM ET; injuries Wed 12:50 PM ET; model Sun 12:05 PM ET.
The total
1 reason for, 1 againstHow the score works
Score is how much we trust a bet. 50 is a coin flip; the number is how far past it the evidence pushes: reasons for minus reasons against, and a reason from something with a years-long record counts more than a trend. Units follow it: a bet backed by a tracked record is 1 unit, 1.5 at 80 or more; a bet whose logic is sound but unproven is half a unit, and only at plus money or alongside a 1-unit bet on the same game. Click a bet for its reasons.