Caleb Williams

QB·

Chicago Bears·#18·6'1"·226 lb·2nd year·USC

Tier 1Round 1, pick 1 in 2024

Updated November 6, 2026

83.1

Model Score

Down from 84.5 last year

Trade value ·two 1sts

Player comps Be the Bears GM →

Caleb Williams has 1,267 passing yards, 6 touchdown passes, 1 interception and 129 rushing yards in 5 games for the Chicago Bears this season through Week 8, 19.5 PPR points a game (updated November 6, 2026).

Model Score by season

Down 1.4 from last season.

How good he is at what he is supposed to be doing, out of 100. Not a projection of what he will do next, and not a read on his contract. Median is about 70, and a 95 is rare. How it is built →

STM Take

A promising young quarterback whose game is still mid-tier.

The case for

20-rank improvement from year one to year two, with a division title and playoff win as team-level confirmation.
PPR floor in the back half of 2025 stayed between 14 and 23 every week, with no zero-point games.

The worry

60.3 percent career completion percentage on 1,130 attempts is the lowest among the top-20 ranked QBs, including the rookies.
47 career touchdowns through two full seasons is below what the rookie attempt volume would normally produce.

What to watch: Whether the offense expands his attempt volume in year three; the current efficiency profile needs a higher-volume system to reach tier 2.

Full take and bio

Williams jumped from STTM #37 tier 8 as a rookie to #17 tier 5 in year two, the second-largest year-over-year improvement on the QB board. The team-level confirmation (division title, first playoff win in 15 years) is there but the rank says the individual profile is still mid-tier. Career still reads as one promising year stacked on a rough rookie line.

Williams was born in Washington, D.C., starred at Gonzaga College High, played one season at Oklahoma after taking over for Spencer Rattler mid-Red River Showdown, then transferred to USC and won the 2022 Heisman Trophy. Chicago took him first overall in the 2024 NFL Draft and he set the NFL rookie record for most consecutive passing attempts without an interception (354). In 2025 he led the Bears to their first division title since 2018 and first playoff win since 2010.

Comps

The players whose size, testing and production looked most like his at the same point in their careers. The percent is how close.

David Carr ’0477%

Kyler Murray ’2175%

Deshaun Watson ’1874%Jeff Blake ’9569%

Brett Favre ’9267%

Plays like: Jim Harbaugh, Mark Brunell, David Carr. Built like: Bailey Zappe, Devin Leary, Ty Simpson. Coming out: Colt McCoy, Baker Mayfield, Sam Howell.

Of his 20 closest coming out: 6 stars, 5 starters, 4 backups, 5 didn't stick.

Caleb Williams Props This Weekvs TB Sun Nov 8

Market	Line	Over	Under
Passing yards	251.5	-111 DraftKings	-113 DraftKings
Passing TDs	1.5	-134 BetRivers	+122 DraftKings
Completions	20.5	-130 DraftKings	+102 DraftKings
Pass attempts	31.5	-107 DraftKings	-118 BetOnline
Interceptions	0.5	+120 BetOnline	-147 DraftKings
Rushing yards	20.5	-108 DraftKings	-117 DraftKings
Anytime TD		+350 BetMGM

Best price across 9 books as of Thu Nov 5. Lines move; check the book before you bet. This week's board · Line Room

Play Caleb's numbers on Underdog · partner link

Caleb Williams Injury StatusNot listed

Caleb Williams is not on the injury report as of Nov 6. Source: the official NFL injury report, refreshed daily.

This season · 5 games

Pass Yds1,26726th

Pass TD624th

INT11st

Comp %70.9%2nd

Rush Yds1298th

Rush TD24th

Fantasy PPG19.57th

Total EPA36.010th

EPA / dropback0.2482nd

Time to throw3.26s

Avg air yards6.9

Aggressiveness11.6%

Longest comp (air)55 yd9th

19.5 fantasy points a game, 98 PPR on the season. Every game on the Game Log, every season on Career. Advanced numbers are EPA and Next Gen Stats.