Caleb Williams

Chicago Bears·#18

Pos QBHt 6'1"Wt 226 lbExp 1 yrCollege USC

Model Score

60.8 MODEL

Resting on limited playing time

How good he is at what he is supposed to be doing, out of 100. Not a projection of what he will do next, and not a read on his contract. Median is about 70, and a 95 is rare. How it is built →

Season Stats · 17 games

3,9427th

Pass Yds

276th

Pass TD

716th

INT

58.3%38th

Comp %

3837th

Rush Yds

311th

Rush TD

18.78th

Fantasy PPG

Advanced Metrics EPA & Next Gen Stats

32.816th

Total EPA

0.07115th

EPA / dropback

3.20s

Time to throw

8.5

Avg air yards

10.7%

Aggressiveness

62 yd1st

Longest comp (air)

STM Take

Williams jumped from STTM #37 tier 8 as a rookie to #17 tier 5 in year two, the second-largest year-over-year improvement on the QB board. The team-level confirmation (division title, first playoff win in 15 years) is there but the rank says the individual profile is still mid-tier. Career still reads as one promising year stacked on a rough rookie line.

Williams was born in Washington, D.C., starred at Gonzaga College High, played one season at Oklahoma after taking over for Spencer Rattler mid-Red River Showdown, then transferred to USC and won the 2022 Heisman Trophy. Chicago took him first overall in the 2024 NFL Draft and he set the NFL rookie record for most consecutive passing attempts without an interception (354). In 2025 he led the Bears to their first division title since 2018 and first playoff win since 2010.

Strengths

20-rank improvement from year one to year two, with a division title and playoff win as team-level confirmation.
PPR floor in the back half of 2025 stayed between 14 and 23 every week, with no zero-point games.

Concerns

60.3 percent career completion percentage on 1,130 attempts is the lowest among the top-20 ranked QBs, including the rookies.
47 career touchdowns through two full seasons is below what the rookie attempt volume would normally produce.

What to watch: Whether the offense expands his attempt volume in year three; the current efficiency profile needs a higher-volume system to reach tier 2.