PIT at 
CLEPIT -3 / PIT -1.83Sun 9:30 AM
IND at 
WASIND -4.5 / WAS -0.51Sun 1:00 PM
ARI at 
NYGNYG -2.5 / ARI -0.22Sun 1:00 PM
DAL at 
HOUHOU -3 / HOU -3.33Sun 1:00 PM
GB at 
TBGB -1.5 / TB -1.3Sun 1:00 PM
JAX at 
CINCIN -3 / CIN -2.33Sun 1:00 PM
LA at 
PHILA -2.5 / PHI -2.67Sun 1:00 PM
NE at 
BUFBUF -5.5 / BUF -6.23Sun 1:00 PM
NYJ at 
CHICHI -3 / CHI -3.85Sun 1:00 PM
TEN at 
BALBAL -10.5 / BAL -10.07Sun 4:05 PM
MIA at 
MINMIN -10.5 / MIN -8.81Sun 4:25 PM
DEN at 
SFSF -3 / SF -3.29Sun 4:25 PM
KC at 
LVKC -6 / KC -4.69Sun 4:25 PM
LAC at 
SEASEA -6.5 / SEA -5.56Sun 8:20 PM
DET at 
CARDET -3 / DET -1.53Mon 8:15 PM
ATL at 
NONO -3.5 / NO -3.56Depth charts and who's out
Who's out
Lions
Brian Branch SAchillesOUT
Giovanni Manu OTKneeOUT
Kerby Joseph SKneeOUT
Isiah Pacheco RBBackIR
Avonte Maddox CBFootIR
4 more
Cade Mays CWristIR
Payton Turner DEBackIR
Thomas Harper SAnkleIR
Ben Bartch GFootQ
Panthers
Ikem Ekwonu OTKneeOUT
Taylor Moton OTIllnessOUT
Tershawn Wharton DTNeckOUT
Damien Lewis GElbowDOUBTFUL
Jonathon Brooks RBAbdomenIR
10 more
Trevor Etienne RBAnkleIR
Bam Martin-Scott LBHamstringIR
Brady Christensen GHamstringIR
Claudin Cherelus LBShoulderIR
Jaycee Horn CBQuadricepsIR
Mike Jackson CBGroinIR
Jalen Coker WRQuadricepsQ
Xavier Legette WRKneeQ
Devin Lloyd LBCalfQ
Nick Scott SRibsQ
Every read on this page assumes the man is on the field. Designations as of 2026-09-30.
The game
The model's play
Nothing on the official card for this game.
Weather at kickoff
Best price
The books have not been polled for this game yet.
The setting
The forecast has 0.98 inches of rain. Both of those are in the range our own backtests actually move on, and both point at the under.
The matchup
Lions with the ballLions: give Goff a clean pocket.
Lions24thnow 14thLions27thnow 13thLions32ndstay under center 4th-lowestalmost never play man 4th-lowestsit in Cover 3 4thPanthers with the ballLions: load the box.
Lions14thnow 28thLions8thnow 12thplay man 4thBig ranks are the 2025 regular season, 1st to 32nd, 1st best at the job either side; "now" is 2026 so far (2 to 3 games a team, too few to trust alone). top 8 bottom 8
The game plan in words, and every rank (2025 regular season)
Lions with the ballWhat they like to do Campbell's Lions stay under center (4th-lowest).
Where they win and lose They protect the football (3rd), throw it well (4th) and complete everything (5th).
What the Panthers defense brings They almost never play man (4th-lowest), sit in cover 3 (4th) and play light boxes (5th), they take the ball away (5th) and they cannot get pressure (worst) and let everything get completed (6th-worst).
What works against them Nothing on the ledger stands out; it comes down to the matchup below.
Where the two meet Lions: give Goff a clean pocket. 0.45 EPA a dropback clean, 3rd of 36. Panthers get pressure 21.5%, 1st-lowest. Lions: take the easy throws. Lions complete 63.6%, 5th. Panthers allow completions at the 6th-highest rate.
Panthers with the ballWhat they like to do Canales's Panthers are middle of the league in how they play.
Where they win and lose Middle of the league on both sides of the ledger.
What the Lions defense brings They play man (4th).
What works against them Nothing on the ledger stands out; it comes down to the matchup below.
Where the two meet Lions: load the box. Lions load the box 7.8%, 2nd-most. Panthers run it: 55.3% pass rate, 13th-fewest.
Detroit
Carolina
The bets
What the model likes
Nothing on the official card for this game.
The information
All the evidence
Player angles
No posted player line has an angle firing on it this week.
Player trends
3 more player trends
Game angles
6 more game angles
Game trends
A lean is where a record points. Only a record past the luck line is a bet; the rest is reading. The bar's tick is the line to beat. Confidence runs from 50, a coin flip, to 100.
Every read in full: the scores, the story and the receipts
The player lines
No player lines posted for this game yet.
Player trends
Gibbs: 9 of his last 10 games on the road as a favorite with 50+ rushing yards.
Jahmyr GibbsRB on the road as a favorite with 50+ rushing yardsWhy 65
- The story With it: the Lions lead, so Gibbs carries it late; the weather leans the running game up.
- The evidence 9 of 10 (90%) against a 62% baseline, 72% after shrinking for sample size.
- Agreement 1 other signal on the same side.
How this is graded
The second number is the point. Everyone posts the first one.
Team trends
The last time the Lions were here, Nov 9, 2025: beat the Commanders by 22 as a 8.5-point favorite.
Inside the luck line: 73 games, and shuffled results produce records like this one. Reading, not a bet; the lean is the Lions.
The last time the Panthers were here, Jan 10, 2009: lost to the Cardinals by 20 as a 10-point favorite.
Inside the luck line: 213 games, and shuffled results produce records like this one. Reading, not a bet; the lean is the Lions.
See all 11 team trends
The last time the Panthers were here, Dec 4, 2016: lost to the Seahawks by 33 as a 8.5-point underdog.
Inside the luck line: 32 games, and shuffled results produce records like this one. Reading, not a bet; the lean is the Lions.
Inside the luck line: 127 games, and shuffled results produce records like this one. Reading, not a bet; the lean is the under.
Inside the luck line: 132 games, and shuffled results produce records like this one. Reading, not a bet; the lean is the under.
Carolina have gone over after a loss when our model likes themOn totals of 40.5 to 46; this game is 51.5, outside that, so it does not speak to this total.
Why 76
- The evidence 9 of 12 (75%) against a 42% baseline, 57% after shrinking for sample size.
- Agreement 3 other signals on the same side.
Carolina have gone over as a home underdog when our model likes themOn totals of 43 to 47.5; this game is 51.5, outside that, so it does not speak to this total.
Why 76
- The evidence 9 of 12 (75%) against a 42% baseline, 57% after shrinking for sample size.
- Agreement 3 other signals on the same side.
Detroit have gone over as a favorite with a total of 48 or higherOn totals of 48.5 to 55.5; this game is 51.5, inside that.
Why 68
- The evidence 18 of 25 (72%) against a 51% baseline, 59% after shrinking for sample size.
- Agreement 3 other signals on the same side.
Detroit have covered as a road favorite with a total of 48 or higherWhy 64
- The evidence 7 of 8 (88%) against a 61% baseline, 66% after shrinking for sample size.
- Agreement 3 other signals on the same side.
Detroit have covered as a road favoriteWhy 60
- The evidence 13 of 17 (76%) against a 60% baseline, 61% after shrinking for sample size.
- Agreement 3 other signals on the same side.
Against the spread and the total, as far back as the current head coach and starting quarterback go (at least three seasons; each card says how far, and what changed). The second bar is the same team everywhere else, which is the number that tells you whether the first one means anything.
Model plays carry a live record. Prop spots and trends are situational reads, and no prop verdict has a graded record yet. A player and stat gets one verdict on this page: when reads disagree we weigh them, this season first, and name the side with the reasons against it.
History
Last meetings
- 2023 wk 5Panthers at LionsLions won, Lions covered24-42
- 2022 wk 16Lions at PanthersPanthers won, Panthers covered23-37
- 2020 wk 11Lions at PanthersPanthers won, Panthers covered0-20
Against the spread in these meetings: 2-1 to Panthers, on closing numbers.
The card
Betting PassThe number. The market has the Lions by 3.5 at a total of 51.5: Lions 27.5, Panthers 24 on paper.
How it plays. The total of 51.5 is high. The forecast has 0.98 inches of rain, which leans the passing game down. The ball goes to the ground, so Gibbs and Hubbard carry it more; the books raise rushing lines for weather (rushing overs 49% since 2019) and do not cut passing lines enough (passing overs 33% in wind), so the passing unders are the edge and the rushing overs are the story at a fair price.
What changed. Lions: no starter on the report. Panthers: WR Jalen Coker questionable; WR Xavier Legette questionable; LCB Mike Jackson ir; 1 starting linemen out.
Model favorites
One favorite from 7 signals: the total. Data as of: forecast Wed 4:10 PM ET; injuries Wed 12:50 PM ET; model Sun 12:05 PM ET.
The total
1 reason for, 1 againstHow the score works
Score is how much we trust a bet. 50 is a coin flip; the number is how far past it the evidence pushes: reasons for minus reasons against, and a reason from something with a years-long record counts more than a trend. Units follow it: a bet backed by a tracked record is 1 unit, 1.5 at 80 or more; a bet whose logic is sound but unproven is half a unit, and only at plus money or alongside a 1-unit bet on the same game. Click a bet for its reasons.