PIT at 
CLEPIT -3 / PIT -1.83Sun 9:30 AM
IND at 
WASIND -4.5 / WAS -0.51Sun 1:00 PM
ARI at 
NYGNYG -2.5 / ARI -0.22Sun 1:00 PM
DAL at 
HOUHOU -3 / HOU -3.33Sun 1:00 PM
GB at 
TBGB -1.5 / TB -1.3Sun 1:00 PM
JAX at 
CINCIN -3 / CIN -2.33Sun 1:00 PM
LA at 
PHILA -2.5 / PHI -2.67Sun 1:00 PM
NE at 
BUFBUF -5.5 / BUF -6.23Sun 1:00 PM
NYJ at 
CHICHI -3 / CHI -3.85Sun 1:00 PM
TEN at 
BALBAL -10.5 / BAL -10.07Sun 4:05 PM
MIA at 
MINMIN -10.5 / MIN -8.81Sun 4:25 PM
DEN at 
SFSF -3 / SF -3.29Sun 4:25 PM
KC at 
LVKC -6 / KC -4.69Sun 4:25 PM
LAC at 
SEASEA -6.5 / SEA -5.56Sun 8:20 PM
DET at 
CARDET -3 / DET -1.53Mon 8:15 PM
ATL at 
NONO -3.5 / NO -3.56Depth charts and who's out
Who's out
Patriots
Behren Morton QBCoach's DecisionOUT
Brenden Schooler SBackOUT
Dametrious Crownover OTCoach's DecisionOUT
Leonard Taylor III DTCoach's DecisionOUT
A.J. Brown WRAnkleIR
8 more
Dell Pettus SAnkleIR
Greg Van Roten GThighIR
Mike Onwenu GAnkleIR
Quintayvious Hutchins LBKneeIR
Eli Raridon TEThighQ
Christian Barmore DTShoulderQ
Craig Woodson SShoulderQ
Dre'Mont Jones DEShoulderQ
Bills
Tyrell Shavers WRKnee - ACLOUT
Dorian Strong CBNeckOUT
T.J. Sanders DTDOUBTFUL
Jordan Hancock CBHamstringIR
Zane Durant DTIR
3 more
Josh Allen QBKneeQ
Ar'maj Reed-Adams GElbowQ
Christian Benford CBToeQ
Every read on this page assumes the man is on the field. Designations as of 2026-09-30.
The game
The model's play
Nothing on the official card for this game.
Best price
The books have not been polled for this game yet.
The setting
The forecast has gusts to 17 miles an hour. Not enough on its own to move a total, but it is real.
The matchup
Patriots with the ballPatriots: run into light boxes.
Patriots10thnow 26thBills5thnever go no-huddle lowestrarely play Cover 3 2nd-lowestBills with the ballBills: give Allen a clean pocket.
Bills11thnow 5thBills24thnow 11thrun it more than almost anyone 3rd-loweststay under center 3rd-lowestNot a key: the Patriots blitz (11th) on Allen. He drops when blitzed like everyone, but from 9th in the league.
Big ranks are the 2025 regular season, 1st to 32nd, 1st best at the job either side; "now" is 2026 so far (2 to 3 games a team, too few to trust alone). top 8 bottom 8
The game plan in words, and every rank (2025 regular season)
Patriots with the ballWhat they like to do Vrabel's Patriots never go no-huddle (lowest).
Where they win and lose They move the ball (1st), throw it well (1st) and hit explosive passes (1st).
What the Bills defense brings They rarely play cover 3 (2nd-lowest) and they win early downs (3rd), make throws hard (4th) and get pressure (5th).
What works against them Nothing on the ledger stands out; it comes down to the matchup below.
Where the two meet Patriots: run into light boxes. Patriots pass only 54.1%, 8th-fewest. Bills show a light box 25.0%, 8th-most. Bills: get home without blitzing. Pressure rate 33.6%, 5th. Patriots take the 7th-most sacks.
Bills with the ballWhat they like to do McDermott's Bills run it more than almost anyone (3rd-lowest) and stay under center (3rd-lowest).
Where they win and lose They run it well (1st), move the ball (3rd) and hit explosive passes (4th).
What the Patriots defense brings A middle-of-the-league defense in how it plays and how it holds up.
What works against them Nothing on the ledger stands out; it comes down to the matchup below.
Where the two meet Bills: give Allen a clean pocket. 0.34 EPA a dropback clean, 10th of 36. Patriots get pressure 27.6%, 9th-lowest. Patriots: load the box. Patriots load the box 4.1%, 9th-most. Bills run it: 51.0% pass rate, 3rd-fewest.
New England
Buffalo
The bets
What the model likes
Nothing on the official card for this game.
The information
All the evidence
Player angles
No posted player line has an angle firing on it this week.
Player trends
Game angles
5 more game angles
Game trends
Neither team has a trend on the spread or the total in this spot.
A lean is where a record points. Only a record past the luck line is a bet; the rest is reading. The bar's tick is the line to beat. Confidence runs from 50, a coin flip, to 100.
Every read in full: the scores, the story and the receipts
The player lines
No player lines posted for this game yet.
Player trends
Cook: 9 of his last 10 games as a favorite with 50+ rushing yards.
James CookRB as a favorite with 50+ rushing yardsWhy 72
- The story With it: the Bills lead, so Cook carries it late.
- The evidence 9 of 10 (90%) against a 56% baseline, 72% after shrinking for sample size.
- Agreement 1 other signal on the same side.
DJ MooreWR in division games outdoors with 50+ receiving yardsWhy 62
- The story With it: a 48.5 total is a throwing script.
- The evidence 8 of 10 (80%) against a 49% baseline, 60% after shrinking for sample size.
- Agreement No other signal on this side.
See all 3 player trends
Josh AllenQB at home with a rushing touchdownWhy 61
- The story No view on this one.
- The evidence 8 of 10 (80%) against a 55% baseline, 60% after shrinking for sample size.
- Agreement 1 other signal on the same side.
The second number is the point. Everyone posts the first one.
Team trends
The last time the Patriots were here, Oct 7, 2007: beat the Browns by 17 as a 15.5-point favorite.
Inside the luck line: 139 games, and shuffled results produce records like this one. Reading, not a bet; the lean is the Patriots.
The last time the Bills were here, Oct 1, 2017: beat the Falcons by 6 as a 8-point underdog.
Inside the luck line: 59 games, and shuffled results produce records like this one. Reading, not a bet; the lean is the Patriots.
See all 5 team trends
The last time the Patriots were here, Sep 26, 2010: beat the Bills by 8 as a 14-point favorite.
Inside the luck line: 108 games, and shuffled results produce records like this one. Reading, not a bet; the lean is the Patriots.
Inside the luck line: 55 games, and shuffled results produce records like this one. Reading, not a bet; the lean is the under.
Against the spread and the total, as far back as the current head coach and starting quarterback go (at least three seasons; each card says how far, and what changed). The second bar is the same team everywhere else, which is the number that tells you whether the first one means anything.
Model plays carry a live record. Prop spots and trends are situational reads, and no prop verdict has a graded record yet. A player and stat gets one verdict on this page: when reads disagree we weigh them, this season first, and name the side with the reasons against it.
History
Last meetings
- 2025 wk 15Bills at PatriotsBills won, Bills covered35-31
- 2025 wk 5Patriots at BillsPatriots won, Patriots covered23-20
- 2024 wk 18Bills at PatriotsPatriots won, Patriots covered16-23
Against the spread in these meetings: 1-4 to Bills, on closing numbers.
The card
Betting PassThe number. The market has the Bills by 6.5 at a total of 48.5: Bills 27.5, Patriots 21 on paper.
How it plays. The total of 48.5 is high.
What changed. Patriots: 1 starting linemen out. Bills: QB Josh Allen questionable; LDE T.J. Sanders doubtful.
Model favorites
One favorite from 5 signals: the total. Data as of: forecast Wed 4:10 PM ET; injuries Wed 12:50 PM ET; model Sun 12:05 PM ET.
The total
2 reasons forHow the score works
Score is how much we trust a bet. 50 is a coin flip; the number is how far past it the evidence pushes: reasons for minus reasons against, and a reason from something with a years-long record counts more than a trend. Units follow it: a bet backed by a tracked record is 1 unit, 1.5 at 80 or more; a bet whose logic is sound but unproven is half a unit, and only at plus money or alongside a 1-unit bet on the same game. Click a bet for its reasons.