BengalsatDolphins

The tale of the tape

This is a mismatch through the air. Cincinnati's passing game ranks 9th and gets a Miami pass defense that ranks 29th, and no team throws on early downs more than the Bengals. Since 2015, teams with a passing edge this big won 68% of the time but covered only 47%, because the line already knows. Third down piles on: the Bengals are 6th, the Dolphins 31st, and 28th once you account for the offenses they have faced. Tee Higgins draws a quarter of the targets. Miami's answer is its own third-down offense, 8th, against a Bengals defense that ranks 24th. The flip point is Cincinnati's line, 28th at keeping Joe Burrow clean, against a Miami pass rush that ranks 20th but blitzed the 5th-most last year. If the Dolphins get home early, this tightens.

The Bengals also own the red zone: their defense ranks 3rd there, against a Miami offense that ranks 32nd, so expect field goals, and De'Von Achane is on IR. What blunts Cincinnati's pass rush, 6th and 9th once you account for the lines it has faced, is a Miami line that ranks 4th at keeping its quarterback clean. For the bet, the history and the angles disagree on the side. The Bengals have covered 9 of 10 as a road favorite after a loss, 49 of 91 everywhere else, which points to Bengals -7. Past games like this one lean Dolphins +7 at 1.7x luck and Under 42.5 at 1.5x, and the page calls both could be luck.