Arik Armstead
Jacksonville JaguarsOVERPAIDModel Score
How good he is at what he is supposed to be doing, out of 100. Not a projection of what he will do next, and not a read on his contract. Median is about 70, and a 95 is rare. How it is built →
Season Stats · 16 games
Draft & College
He went about where consensus had him.
Comps
STM Take
Super Bowl LIV and LVIII appearances plus the 17th overall draft slot plus the 2025 tier 2 (#15) Jacksonville finish puts Armstead in the structural late-prime class with continued top-20 ceiling. The Oregon Pac-12 pedigree plus 11 years of NFL development gives him real veteran market value. The 2026 question is whether Armstead earns his first Pro Bowl plus holds tier 2 territory or whether the structural late-career decline reasserts.
Armstead came out of Oregon as the San Francisco 49ers' 1st-round pick (17th overall) in 2015 and spent nine years in San Francisco including the Super Bowl LIV and LVIII appearances. He signed with the Jacksonville Jaguars in 2024 free agency. His STTM career runs tier 5 (#39) in 2022, tier 3 (#21) in 2023 with the 49ers, and tier 2 (#15) in 2025 with Jacksonville.
Strengths
- Super Bowl LIV and LVIII appearances plus 17th overall draft pedigree plus the 2025 tier 2 (#15) Jacksonville finish establishes a top-20 IDL ceiling.
- 11 years of NFL starter reps at age 32 across two systems gives him real veteran market value.
Concerns
- No Pro Bowl recognition yet despite the 11-year career and the 2025 tier 2 finish flags a gap between metric production and broader voting.
- Age 32 plus 11 years of interior-line wear puts the structural late-career decline question on every 2026 projection.
What to watch: Whether Armstead earns his first Pro Bowl in 2026 plus holds tier 3 or better, the threshold for confirming the late-prime ceiling is sustained.