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PlayerDexter Lawrence · IDL, Cincinnati Bengals, Model Score 86.2Be the Bengals GM

Dexter Lawrence

Cincinnati BengalsOVERPAID
Pos IDL
Updated October 9, 2026

Model Score

86.2 MODEL
2019
78.2
2020
83.5
2021
80.5
2022
90.7
2023
85.4
2024
84.0
2025
74.5
2026
86.2

How good he is at what he is supposed to be doing, out of 100. Not a projection of what he will do next, and not a read on his contract. Median is about 70, and a 95 is rare. How it is built →

STM Take

Three Pro Bowls plus 2022 1st-team All-Pro plus the tier 1 (#1) STTM peak makes Lawrence one of the best interior defenders of his generation. The 46-spot regression from tier 1 (#7) in 2024 to tier 7 (#53) in 2025 is one of the largest single-year STTM collapses for an All-Pro interior defender, flagging injury, scheme shift, or contract dispute. The 2026 question is whether Lawrence returns to tier 1 territory or whether the structural context closed the elite chapter.

Lawrence came out of Clemson as the New York Giants' 1st-round pick (17th overall) in 2019 after winning the 2018 CFP National Championship as the Tigers' starting nose tackle. He made three Pro Bowls (2022, 2023, 2024) plus earned 2022 1st-team All-Pro recognition. His STTM career runs tier 3 (#24) rookie, tier 1 (#1) peak in 2022 All-Pro, tier 2 (#9) in 2023, tier 1 (#7) in 2024, and tier 7 (#53) collapse in 2025.

Strengths

  • Three Pro Bowls (2022, 2023, 2024) plus 2022 1st-team All-Pro plus the 2022 tier 1 (#1) STTM peak establishes a top-3 IDL résumé.
  • Clemson 2018 CFP National Championship pedigree plus the 17th overall draft slot plus three years of top-9 STTM finishes confirms elite ceiling.

Concerns

  • 46-spot regression from tier 1 (#7) in 2024 to tier 7 (#53) in 2025 is one of the largest single-year STTM collapses for an All-Pro IDL.
  • Giants' broader defensive identity instability plus the multi-year offensive rebuild creates the structural context that may have contributed to the 2025 collapse.

What to watch: Whether Lawrence returns to tier 1 (top 10) in 2026, the threshold for confirming the 2025 collapse was situational rather than the structural end of the elite chapter.

Comps

Overall match
size, testing and production, same career stage
Famous comp
names you know, same point in their careers (around year 7)
Built like
measurables only, his size
Coming out
pros whose college production, size and testing looked like his

Of his 20 closest coming out: 5 stars, 8 starters, 5 backups, 2 didn't stick.

Dexter Lawrence Injury StatusQuestionable

Dexter Lawrence is listed Questionable (Wrist), reported Oct 7. Source: the official NFL injury report, refreshed daily.

Dexter Lawrence Stats This Season · 4 games

3
Sacks
8
Pressures
3
QB Hits
4
TFL
10
Tackles
0
FF

Draft & College

Round 1, pick 17 · New York Giants · 2019
Clemson (ACC)
Taken
#17
where he actually went
Consensus board
28th
average of the public big boards that spring
Our college model
#51
among IDL in our college data

He went earlier than consensus.

In college · 2016-2018 · 39 games · partial record
10.5 sacks, 18 TFL, 24 pressures, 129 tackles

Covers the college seasons in our data, which does not always reach back to a player's first year.

Coming out
5.05s
40 yd
36 reps
Bench

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