Dexter Lawrence
Cincinnati BengalsOVERPAIDModel Score
How good he is at what he is supposed to be doing, out of 100. Not a projection of what he will do next, and not a read on his contract. Median is about 70, and a 95 is rare. How it is built →
Season Stats · 17 games
Draft & College
He went earlier than consensus.
Covers the college seasons in our data, which does not always reach back to a player's first year.
Comps
STM Take
Three Pro Bowls plus 2022 1st-team All-Pro plus the tier 1 (#1) STTM peak makes Lawrence one of the best interior defenders of his generation. The 46-spot regression from tier 1 (#7) in 2024 to tier 7 (#53) in 2025 is one of the largest single-year STTM collapses for an All-Pro interior defender, flagging injury, scheme shift, or contract dispute. The 2026 question is whether Lawrence returns to tier 1 territory or whether the structural context closed the elite chapter.
Lawrence came out of Clemson as the New York Giants' 1st-round pick (17th overall) in 2019 after winning the 2018 CFP National Championship as the Tigers' starting nose tackle. He made three Pro Bowls (2022, 2023, 2024) plus earned 2022 1st-team All-Pro recognition. His STTM career runs tier 3 (#24) rookie, tier 1 (#1) peak in 2022 All-Pro, tier 2 (#9) in 2023, tier 1 (#7) in 2024, and tier 7 (#53) collapse in 2025.
Strengths
- Three Pro Bowls (2022, 2023, 2024) plus 2022 1st-team All-Pro plus the 2022 tier 1 (#1) STTM peak establishes a top-3 IDL résumé.
- Clemson 2018 CFP National Championship pedigree plus the 17th overall draft slot plus three years of top-9 STTM finishes confirms elite ceiling.
Concerns
- 46-spot regression from tier 1 (#7) in 2024 to tier 7 (#53) in 2025 is one of the largest single-year STTM collapses for an All-Pro IDL.
- Giants' broader defensive identity instability plus the multi-year offensive rebuild creates the structural context that may have contributed to the 2025 collapse.
What to watch: Whether Lawrence returns to tier 1 (top 10) in 2026, the threshold for confirming the 2025 collapse was situational rather than the structural end of the elite chapter.