The forecast has gusts to 30 miles an hour and 0.72 inches of rain. Both of those are in the range our own backtests actually move on, and both point at the under.
ATL at 
GBGB -6.5 / GB -2.55Sun 1:00 PM
CAR at 
CLECAR -2.5 / CAR -0.05Sun 1:00 PM
CIN at 
PITCIN -3.5 / PIT -1.89Sun 1:00 PM
HOU at 
INDHOU -1.5 / HOU -0.11Sun 1:00 PM
KC at 
MIAKC -10.5 / KC -4.89Sun 1:00 PM
LAC at 
BUFBUF -7 / BUF -6.25Sun 1:00 PM
NE at 
JAXJAX -3 / JAX -3.85Sun 1:00 PM
NYJ at 
DETDET -6.5 / DET -7.88Sun 1:00 PM
SEA at 
WASSEA -7.5 / SEA -2.52Sun 1:00 PM
TEN at 
NYGNYG -2.5 / NYG -4.42Sun 4:05 PM
ARI at 
SFSF -8.5 / SF -8.04Sun 4:05 PM
MIN at 
TBMIN -1.5 / TB -1.49Sun 4:25 PM
BAL at 
DALBAL -3.5 / BAL -0.91Sun 4:25 PM
LV at 
NONO -3 / NO -1.6Sun 8:20 PM
LA at 
DENLA -2.5 / DEN -1.93Mon 8:15 PM
PHI at 
CHIPHI -4.5 / CHI -0.75Depth charts and who's out
Who's out
Seahawks
Zach Charbonnet RBKnee - ACLOUT
Anthony Bradford GKneeIR
Jadarian Price RBChestQ
Brandon Pili DTConcussionQ
Julian Love SCalfQ
1 more
Ty Okada SHamstringQ
Commanders
Jayden Daniels QBElbowOUT
Nick Cross SOUT
Chig Okonkwo TEHamstringDOUBTFUL
Jordan Magee LBHamstringIR
Jaylin Lane WRGroinQ
7 more
Charles Omenihu DEAnkleQ
Dorance Armstrong DEKneeQ
Frankie Luvu LBGroinQ
Javon Kinlaw DTShoulderQ
Leo Chenal LBChestQ
Percy Butler SGroinQ
Sam Cosmi GConcussionQ
Every read on this page assumes the man is on the field. Designations as of 2026-09-20.
The game
Seahawks ahead means Price carries it late and Darnold throws less; Commanders chasing means Mariota throws, and McLaurin, Diggs and Okonkwo get the volume.
SEA has to
Go get the ball
Seahawks take it away 2.6%, 6th. Commanders throw picks 2.4%, 9th-most.
WAS has to
Hold up against four
Sacks taken 7.4%, 14th-most. Quick game does not fix a four-man rush.
The model's play
Our total 40 vs 41.5 posted (gusts 34 mph, rain 0.22 in at kickoff). Posted Sep 20 on that forecast; the forecast for kickoff is now gusts of 29 mph.
Won 57.2% of 778 past bets like it. The worst case we can be 80% sure of is 54.9%, which clears the 52.4% break-even.
Weather at kickoff
Best price
WAS +7.5 -108 at BetRivers, 20 booksbest on the board SEA -7.5 -102 at LowVig.ag, 20 booksbest on the boardThe matchup
Seahawks with the ballCommanders: load the box.
Seahawks30thrun it more than almost anyone 2nd-loweststay under center 2nd-lowestCommanders with the ballCommanders: run into light boxes.
Seahawks6thSeahawks9thSeahawks4thSeahawks6thgo no-huddle 1stlive in shotgun 1stplay two-high 3rdNot a key: pace. Seahawks 22nd and Commanders 27th in plays a game. Two of the slowest offenses in football, so the total leans under.
Ranks are 2025 regular season, 1st to 32nd, 1st best at the job either side. top 8 bottom 8
The game plan in words, and every rank (2025 regular season)
Seahawks with the ballWhat they like to do Macdonald's Seahawks run it more than almost anyone (2nd-lowest) and stay under center (2nd-lowest).
Where they win and lose They hit explosive passes (3rd) and complete everything (3rd) and they throw interceptions (4th-worst).
What the Commanders defense brings They lose early downs (2nd-worst) and never take it away (6th-worst).
What works against them Make them throw: they give it away (4th-worst).
Where the two meet Commanders: load the box. Commanders load the box 4.4%, 8th-most. Seahawks run it: 50.8% pass rate, 2nd-fewest. Seahawks: run into light boxes. Seahawks pass only 50.8%, 2nd-fewest. Commanders show a light box 20.1%, 17th-most.
Commanders with the ballWhat they like to do Quinn's Commanders go no-huddle (1st), live in shotgun (1st) and run on early downs (2nd-lowest).
Where they win and lose They break explosive runs (6th).
What the Seahawks defense brings They play two-high (3rd) and they get pressure (4th), shut offenses down (6th) and take the ball away (6th).
What works against them Nothing on the ledger stands out; it comes down to the matchup below.
Where the two meet Commanders: run into light boxes. Commanders pass only 51.4%, 4th-fewest. Seahawks show a light box 24.0%, 10th-most. Seahawks: go get the ball. Seahawks take it away 2.6%, 6th. Commanders throw picks 2.4%, 9th-most.
Seattle
Washington
The bets
What the model likes
3 more
The information
Player angles
Also posted, with no read either way: Marcus Mariota 169.5 passing yards (over in 7 of his 14, 2024-2026), Terry McLaurin 41.5 receiving yards (over in 21 of his 29, 2024-2026), Stefon Diggs 36.5 receiving yards (over in 18 of his 27, 2024-2026), Rashid Shaheed 26.5 receiving yards (over in 17 of his 26, 2024-2026), Jaxon Smith-Njigba 6.5 receptions (over in 20 of his 36, 2024-2026), Terry McLaurin 3.5 receptions (over in 17 of his 29, 2024-2026), AJ Barner 2.5 receptions (over in 14 of his 33, 2024-2026) and Rashid Shaheed 2.5 receptions (over in 16 of his 26, 2024-2026).
Player trends
Game angles
2 more game angles
First quarter: Seahawks -0.5 and a total of 7.
Game trends
A lean is where a record points. Only a record past the luck line is a bet; the rest is reading. The bar's tick is the line to beat. Confidence runs from 50, a coin flip, to 100.
Every read in full: the scores, the story and the receipts
The player lines
Under 3.5 receptions for Stefon Diggs leads 15 lines. On 5, the player's history and the matchup agree.
Why 74
- The story With it: the wind leans the passing game down; the rain leans the passing game down.
- The evidence 6 of 9 (67%) against a 11% baseline, 45% after shrinking for sample size.
- Agreement No other signal on this side.
- The grid No held angle applies to this line.
- The matchup SEA allow 10% less than league to WRs, 28th most.
- The price +115, which needs 47% to break even.
- Where it went On the card, 0.5u.
Why 73
- The story With it: the Commanders chase, so Croskey-Merritt carries it less; a 40.5 total is a low-scoring script.
- The evidence 8 of 11 (73%) against a 38% baseline, 53% after shrinking for sample size.
- Agreement No other signal on this side.
- The grid No held angle applies to this line.
- The matchup SEA allow 24% less than league to RBs, 31st most.
- The price -120, which needs 55% to break even.
- Where it went On the card, 0.5u.
Why 66
- The story Against it: the Seahawks lead big, so Darnold throws less; the wind leans the passing game down.
- The evidence 14 of 15 (93%) against a 73% baseline, 80% after shrinking for sample size.
- Agreement 1 other signal on the same side.
- The grid No held angle applies to this line.
- The matchup WAS allow 17% more than league to WRs, 5th most.
- The price -110, which needs 52% to break even.
See all 15 player lines
Why 65
- The story Against it: the Seahawks lead big, so Darnold throws less; the wind leans the passing game down.
- The evidence 23 of 35 (66%) against a 48% baseline, 55% after shrinking for sample size.
- Agreement 1 other signal on the same side.
- The grid No held angle applies to this line.
- The matchup WAS allow 14% more than league to QBs, 3rd most.
- The price -115, which needs 53% to break even.
Why 57
- The story Against it: the Seahawks lead big, so Darnold throws less; the wind leans the passing game down.
- The evidence 6 of 9 (67%) against a 42% baseline, 45% after shrinking for sample size.
- Agreement No other signal on this side.
- The grid No held angle applies to this line.
- The matchup WAS allow 15% more than league to TEs, 6th most.
- The price -120, which needs 55% to break even.
Why 60
- The story Against it: the Seahawks lead big, so Darnold throws less; the wind leans the passing game down.
- The evidence 19 of 36 (53%) against a 48% baseline, 42% after shrinking for sample size.
- Agreement 2 other signals on the same side.
- The grid No held angle applies to this line.
- The matchup WAS allow 17% more than league to WRs, 5th most.
- The price -115, which needs 53% to break even.
Why 56
- The story Against it: the Seahawks lead big, so Darnold throws less; the wind leans the passing game down.
- The evidence 17 of 30 (57%) against a 48% baseline, 45% after shrinking for sample size.
- Agreement 1 other signal on the same side.
- The grid No held angle applies to this line.
- The matchup WAS allow 11% more than league to WRs, 4th most.
- The price +115, which needs 47% to break even.
Lines from Bovada as of 2026-09-25. A record is the player against the consensus closing line, every game since 2023, graded on the box score. Overs hit 46 to 48% league-wide; that is the bar, not 50. "Player and matchup agree" means he clears this number 60%+ in the situation this game puts him in AND the opponent allows 10%+ over league to his position. None of these has a graded record yet.
Player trends
Smith-Njigba: 10 of his last 10 games on the road with 50+ receiving yards.
Jaxon Smith-NjigbaWR on the road with 50+ receiving yardsWhy 80
- The story Against it: the Seahawks lead big, so Darnold throws less; the wind leans the passing game down.
- The evidence 10 of 10 (100%) against a 62% baseline, 86% after shrinking for sample size.
- Agreement 2 other signals on the same side.
Terry McLaurinWR as an underdog with 50+ receiving yardsWhy 53
- The story Against it: the wind leans the passing game down; the rain leans the passing game down.
- The evidence 8 of 10 (80%) against a 58% baseline, 60% after shrinking for sample size.
- Agreement No other signal on this side.
How this is graded
The second number is the point. Everyone posts the first one.
Team trends
The last time the Commanders were here, Dec 16, 2012: beat the Browns by 17 as a 4-point underdog.
Inside the luck line: 132 games, and shuffled results produce records like this one. Reading, not a bet; the lean is the Commanders.
The last time the Commanders were here, Nov 28, 2004: lost to the Steelers by 9 as a 10-point underdog.
Inside the luck line: 108 games, and shuffled results produce records like this one. Reading, not a bet; the lean is the Commanders.
See all 9 team trends
The last time the Seahawks were here, Oct 2, 2000: lost to the Chiefs by 7 as a 4-point underdog.
Inside the luck line: 218 games, and shuffled results produce records like this one. Reading, not a bet; the lean is the Commanders.
Past the luck line: a record this far from a coin flip on 855 games does not come from shuffled results. That points at the under.
Inside the luck line: 59 games, and shuffled results produce records like this one. Reading, not a bet; the lean is the over.
Washington have gone over as an underdogOn totals of 40.5 to 50.5; this game is 40.5, inside that.
Why 71
- The evidence 24 of 34 (71%) against a 47% baseline, 60% after shrinking for sample size.
- Agreement 2 other signals on the same side.
Washington have gone over as an underdog outdoorsOn totals of 38.5 to 50; this game is 40.5, inside that.
Why 67
- The evidence 19 of 26 (73%) against a 52% baseline, 61% after shrinking for sample size.
- Agreement 2 other signals on the same side.
Washington have gone over at home after a lossOn totals of 42.5 to 50.5; this game is 40.5, inside that.
Why 67
- The evidence 12 of 15 (80%) against a 55% baseline, 64% after shrinking for sample size.
- Agreement 2 other signals on the same side.
Against the spread and the total, as far back as the current head coach and starting quarterback go (at least three seasons; each card says how far, and what changed). The second bar is the same team everywhere else, which is the number that tells you whether the first one means anything.
Model plays carry a live record. Prop spots and trends are situational reads, and no prop verdict has a graded record yet. When two sections disagree, both stay.
History
Last meetings
- 2025 wk 9Seahawks at CommandersSeahawks won, Seahawks covered38-14
- 2023 wk 10Commanders at SeahawksSeahawks won, Commanders covered26-29
- 2021 wk 12Seahawks at CommandersCommanders won, Commanders covered15-17
Against the spread in these meetings: 1-3 to Seahawks, on closing numbers.
The card
Betting PassThe number. The market has the Seahawks by 7.5 at a total of 40.5: Seahawks 24, Commanders 16.5 on paper.
How it plays. The total of 40.5 is low. Commanders play slow (27th in plays a game). The forecast has gusts to 30 and 0.72 inches of rain, which leans the passing game down. The ball goes to the ground, so Price and Croskey-Merritt carry it more; the books raise rushing lines for weather (rushing overs 49% since 2019) and do not cut passing lines enough (passing overs 33% in wind), so the passing unders are the edge and the rushing overs are the story at a fair price.
What changed. Seahawks: RB Jadarian Price questionable; 1 starting linemen out. Commanders: QB Jayden Daniels out; TE Chig Okonkwo doubtful; SS Nick Cross out.
Model favorites
Three favorites from 26 signals: the total and two player lines. Data as of: forecast Fri 8:00 AM ET; injuries Fri 11:49 AM ET; model Fri 8:03 AM ET.
The total
3 reasons for, 3 againstA player line
3 reasons forA player line
3 reasons forHow the score works
Score is how much we trust a bet. 50 is a coin flip; the number is how far past it the evidence pushes: reasons for minus reasons against, and a reason from something with a years-long record counts more than a trend. Units follow it: a bet backed by a tracked record is 1 unit, 1.5 at 80 or more; a bet whose logic is sound but unproven is half a unit, and only at plus money or alongside a 1-unit bet on the same game. Click a bet for its reasons.