2026 NFL Draft Safety Rankings: StickToTheModel Top 10
S — Top 10
Deepest safety class in years.
Consensus has Caleb Downs as a top-5 overall player. Our model agrees. After that, our rankings pull up three guys the board undersells — Emmanuel McNeil-Warren (our S2, consensus S3), Jakobe Thomas (analytics S1, consensus S17), and Michael Taaffe (our S8, consensus S12). The disagreement at the bottom of the top 10 is where the model earns its reputation.
Every rank below is the StickToTheModel rank — our blend of the consensus big board and our career analytics (composite, peak-season score, breakout age, size).
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1. Caleb Downs — Ohio State — 6'0", 205StickToTheModel S1 at #4 overall.
Consensus S1 at #4. Range: PFN 2, Thor 10 — 8-spot spread. Tightest agreement in the safety class.
Our analytics match. 94th percentile career composite. Peak score 0.85. Broke out at 18.3 — 3-year body of work at a top program. 256 career tackles, 16 TFL, 6 INTs, 10 PDs, 38 career games. 87.5 PFF grade.
6'0", 205. Size score 0.51.
StickToTheModel S1.
Top-5 overall talent. The consensus and the analytics both put him there. Day-one All-Pro starter range. If he falls past 8, something weird happened.
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2. Emmanuel McNeil-Warren — Toledo — 6'2", 202Best analytics profile in the class outside Downs.
Consensus S3 at #27. Range: ESPN 21, TDN 68 — 47-spot spread.
Our analytics lift. 95th percentile career composite. Peak score 0.93 — highest in our safety top 10. Broke out at 19.2. 37 career games, 206 tackles, 11 TFL, 5 INTs, 13 PDs. 91.9 PFF grade.
6'2", 202. Size score 0.76.
StickToTheModel S2 at #19.
Round-2 pick. MAC production with SEC-grade composite. Frame, age, and production all align. Aggressive late round-1 swing for a team in the 20s that wants a plug-and-play free safety.
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3. Dillon Thieneman — Oregon — 6'0", 205Tackle monster.
Consensus S2 at #20. Range: PFF 11, PFN 62 — 51-spot spread.
Our analytics agree at the top tier. 91st percentile career composite. Peak score 0.83. Broke out at 18.6. 302 career tackles — highest in our safety top 10. 8 INTs, 13 PDs. 91.0 PFF grade.
6'0", 205. Size score 0.51.
StickToTheModel S3 at #20.
Round-1 pick. Box safety / hybrid LB role at the next level. Volume production and clean age curve. Consensus and our model land right next to each other.
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4. AJ Haulcy — LSU — 6'0", 222Ball hawk with range.
Consensus S4 at #55. Range: Thor 39, TDN 71 — 32-spot spread.
Our analytics lift. 97th percentile career composite. Peak score 0.84. Broke out at 18.2 — 4 seasons of data, 48 career games. 338 career tackles, 10 INTs. 86.6 PFF grade.
6'0", 222. Size score 0.60.
StickToTheModel S4 at #46.
Round-2 pick. The INT total (10) is elite for the position. The tackle count is exceptional. Clean profile with real floor — starter by year two.
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5. Genesis Smith — Arizona State — 6'2", 202Peak-season rise.
Consensus S6 at #75. Range: PFN 45, PFF 98 — 53-spot spread.
Our analytics lift. 92nd percentile career composite. Peak score 0.87. Progression score 0.99 — got better every year. 36 career games, 161 tackles, 6.5 TFL, 4 INTs, 14 PDs. 80.0 PFF grade.
6'2", 202. Size score 0.76.
StickToTheModel S5 at #64.
Round-3 pick. Size, age, and progression all work. The counting stats are in the solid-starter range, not the elite range. Range safety role with box flex.
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6. Zakee Wheatley — Penn State — 6'2", 200Older prospect. Real production.
Consensus S8 at #85. Range: Edholm 64, PFN 114 — 50-spot spread.
Our analytics lift. 80th percentile career composite. Peak score 0.89 — second-highest in our safety top 10. 4 seasons, 49 games, 6 INTs, 208 tackles. 85.9 PFF grade.
6'2", 200. Size score 0.72.
StickToTheModel S6 at #77.
Draft age 24.1 is the flag. The peak-season tape is the answer. Round-3 pick with starter upside year one.
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7. Jalon Kilgore — South Carolina — 6'1", 211Widest analyst spread at the position.
Consensus S10 at #120. Range: ESPN 71, CBS 238 — a 167-spot spread.
Our analytics lift. 86th percentile career composite. Peak score 0.75. Breakout age 18.2 — tied for youngest in our safety top 10. 3 seasons, 36 games, 8 INTs, 21 PDs.
6'1", 211. Size score 0.73.
StickToTheModel S7 at #97.
Round-4 pick on the board. Round-3 in our analytics. Young breakout, clean ball production, real frame. The CBS 238 grade is the outlier — the rest of the board has him inside top 120.
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8. Michael Taaffe — Texas — 6'0", 189Texas safety with PFF credit.
Consensus S12 at #177. Range: Tek 129, CBS 195 — 66-spot spread.
Our analytics lift. 83rd percentile career composite. Peak score 0.91 — third-highest in our safety top 10. 4 seasons, 50 games, 3 sacks, 9.5 TFL, 7 INTs, 14 PDs. 88.1 PFF grade.
6'0", 189. Size score 0.31.
StickToTheModel S8 at #128.
Round-5 pick on the board. Round-4 grade in our analytics. The peak-season tape and 4-year SEC reps are the case. The frame is the discount. Early day-3 value.
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9. Jakobe Thomas — Miami (FL) — 6'2", 200Analytics S1. Consensus S17.
Consensus S17 at #226. Range: ESPN 142, PFF 297 — a 155-spot spread. Board has him as a late-round or UDFA swing.
Our analytics have him S1 in the pool. 100th percentile career composite. Peak score 0.94 — second-highest in our safety top 10. 4 seasons, 48 games, 4.5 sacks, 11 TFL, 9 INTs, 15 PDs. 87.3 PFF grade.
6'2", 200. Size score 0.72.
StickToTheModel S9 at #163.
Biggest board-to-model gap at safety. The counting stats, frame, and PFF grade all argue for a round-3 pick. The board has him round-6. Take the swing — the profile is the kind the model was built to find.
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10. Kamari Ramsey — USC — 6'0", 205Consensus higher than our model.
Consensus S7 at #81. Range: PFN 41, Tek 103 — 62-spot spread.
Our analytics hold back. 62nd percentile career composite — lowest in our safety top 10. Peak score 0.75. Progression score 0.04 — flat arc. 3 seasons, 36 games, 2 sacks, 9.5 TFL, 2 INTs.
6'0", 205. Size score 0.51.
StickToTheModel S10 at #98.
Consensus-heavy S10. Board has him round-3; our analytics alone would have him a round later. The blend puts him at the back of our top 10. Fit-dependent pick.
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Ranks 11–20
11. VJ Payne — Kansas State — 6'3", 208StickToTheModel #153 overall
12. Bishop Fitzgerald — USC — 5'11", 205StickToTheModel #160 overall
13. Treydan Stukes — Arizona — 6'2", 195StickToTheModel #172 overall
14. Jalen Huskey — Maryland — 6'2", 201StickToTheModel #191 overall
15. Cole Wisniewski — Texas Tech — 6'4", 220StickToTheModel #218 overall
16. Bud Clark — TCU — 6'2", 185StickToTheModel #219 overall
17. Wydett Williams Jr — Mississippi — 6'2", 205StickToTheModel #228 overall
18. DeShon Singleton — Nebraska — 6'3", 210StickToTheModel #229 overall
19. Ahmaad Moses — SMU — 5'10", 205StickToTheModel #249 overall
20. Robert Spears-Jennings — Oklahoma — 6'0", 213StickToTheModel #259 overall