Week 1 · Sunday 13:00 ET

Bears at Panthers

Panthers -3.0Bank of America Stadium · outdoors
Total 46.5

The read

Panthers laying 3.0 at home. The forecast has 0.06 inches of rain. Not enough on its own to move a total, but it is real. It opened Panthers -2.5 and 44.5 and has moved three times since, most recently on 2026-09-07.

Who is on the field

Chicago

Carolina

The Team HQ depth chart itself, not a copy. Offense and defense toggle inside it, and you can drag players to rearrange. Cross it against the injuries below.

Chicago on its own page →Carolina on its own page →

Who is not playing

Chicago

Kyler GordonCBCalfOUT

Noah SewellLBAchillesOUT

Shemar TurnerDTKnee - ACLOUT

D'Andre SwiftRBAbdomenQUESTIONABLE

Kyle MonangaiRBKneeQUESTIONABLE

Luther Burden IIIWRGroinQUESTIONABLE

Rome OdunzeWRLegQUESTIONABLE

Jaylon JohnsonCBArmQUESTIONABLE

and 7 more

Carolina

Ikem EkwonuOTKneeOUT

Taylor MotonOTIllnessOUT

Tershawn WhartonDTNeckOUT

Chuba HubbardRBHamstringQUESTIONABLE

Haynes KingQBHamstringQUESTIONABLE

Jonathon BrooksRBGeneral SorenessQUESTIONABLE

Xavier LegetteWRAnkleQUESTIONABLE

Akayleb EvansCBNeckQUESTIONABLE

and 6 more

Skill players in white, because every trend and coverage read on this page assumes the man is on the field. Designations as of 2026-09-07. Anyone cleared is absent from this list entirely.

Chicago depth chart →Carolina depth chart →

Keys to the game

Bears

Send it at Young, and get there

Young falls to -0.24 blitzed, but Bears are only 22nd at turning the blitz into pressure.

Run at the Panthers zone eyes

Explosive run rate 13.5%, 2nd. Panthers play man 21.5%, 29th: lighter boxes, backs turned.

Go get the ball

Bears take it away 3.9%, 1st. Panthers throw picks 2.2%, 13th-most.

Panthers

Has to

Keep Young clean

0.12 EPA a dropback clean, 32nd of 37. Blitzed, -0.24, 35th of 37.

Has to

Stop the Bears run with light boxes

Zone eyes mean light boxes, and Bears rip explosive runs 2nd-most.

Has to

Protect the football

Panthers throw picks 2.2%, 13th-most, into a defense that takes it away 3.9%, 1st.

Each team in one line

BearsProtect the football1stTake the ball away1stBreak explosive runs2ndPlay fast2nd

PanthersCannot get pressureworstTake the ball away5thLet everything get completed6th-worstAlmost never play man4th-lowest

Full tendencies, 2025 regular season, ranked against all 32

Chicago

How they play

They play fast64.5plays a game2nd

and they play man41.7%man coverage rate3rd

and they stay under center51.8%shotgun rate5th-lowest

and they rarely play Cover 322.8%Cover 3 rate6th-lowest

Where they win and lose

They protect the football1.2%interception rate1st

and they take the ball away3.9%interception rate1st

and they break explosive runs13.5%explosive run rate2nd

and they protect the quarterback4.0%sacks taken3rd

Carolina

How they play

They almost never play man21.5%man coverage rate4th-lowest

and they sit in Cover 333.3%Cover 3 rate4th

and they play light boxes26.9%light box rate5th

Where they win and lose

They cannot get pressure21.5%pressure rateworst

and they take the ball away2.7%interception rate5th

and they let everything get completed59.6%completion rate allowed6th-worst

Chicago tendencies →Carolina tendencies →

Angles that fire on this game

Underdog vs a team looking ahead to a division game

Take home · 991-915 in testing

TEST, expectation null. Surfaced by the 2026-08-28 depth-4 sweep INSIDE the luck envelope; the model-free base rate is 50.3%. Registered to settle it forward, not because we believe it.

52.0%

Model lean vs a team looking ahead to a division game

Take home · 764-680 in testing · our number is 3.0 points off the market

TEST, expectation null. Same sweep, same luck-envelope caveat as PR-004.

52.9%

Frozen before the season and graded in public whatever happens. Where we do not believe one, it says so above in its own words.

Player trends that apply to this game

D'Andre SwiftRB has 8 of his last 10 games on the road with 50+ rushing yards.

8 of 10, 80% in this spot · 2024-2025

21 of 33, 64% in every other spot

Caleb WilliamsQB has 7 of his last 10 games outdoors with 2+ passing touchdowns.

7 of 10, 70% in this spot · 2025

3 of 8, 38% in every other spot

The second number is the point. Everyone posts the first one.

Fantasy: who to start, and who they draw

Chicago

D'Andre SwiftRB

48% of the carries · 41 red-zone touches

Rome OdunzeWR

22% of the targets · 13 red-zone touches

Colston LovelandTE

15% of the targets · 16 red-zone touches

Carolina

Rico DowdleRB

50% of the carries · 40 red-zone touches

Tetairoa McMillanWR

22% of the targets · 15 red-zone touches

Bears give up more to WRs than almost anyone, 7th

Ja'Tavion SandersTE

9% of the targets · 10 red-zone touches

Usage is last season's average share and red-zone work. The defense line is what that team actually allowed to the position, ranked against all 32. Neither is a projection.

The last time they played

2024 wk 5

Panthers at

Bears10-36Bears won, Bears covered

2023 wk 10

Panthers at

Bears13-16Bears won, push covered

2020 wk 6

Bears at

Panthers23-16Bears won, Bears covered

Against the spread in these meetings: 0-2-1 to Panthers. Closing numbers, not openers.

Every meeting, with the lines →

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