Week 1 · Sunday 13:00 ET

Saints at Lions

Saints -7.0Ford Field · indoors
Total 49.5

The read

A dome and a 49.5 that is among the highest on the board. It opened Saints -7 and 48.5 and has moved 11 times since, most recently on 2026-08-31.

Who is on the field

New Orleans

Detroit

The Team HQ depth chart itself, not a copy. Offense and defense toggle inside it, and you can drag players to rearrange. Cross it against the injuries below.

New Orleans on its own page →Detroit on its own page →

Who is not playing

New Orleans

Mason TiptonWRLegOUT

Alvin KamaraRBKnee - MCLQUESTIONABLE

Kendre MillerRBQUESTIONABLE

Oscar DelpTEHamstringQUESTIONABLE

John Ridgeway IIIDTFootQUESTIONABLE

Pete WernerLBGroinQUESTIONABLE

Jordyn TysonWRHamstringIR

Moliki MatavaoTEKneeIR

and 5 more

Detroit

Brian BranchSAchillesOUT

Giovanni ManuOTKneeOUT

Kerby JosephSKneeOUT

Sam LaPortaTEHipQUESTIONABLE

D.J. ReedCBGroinQUESTIONABLE

Derrick MooreDEGroinQUESTIONABLE

Ennis Rakestraw Jr.CBLower LegQUESTIONABLE

Jimmy RolderLBHamstringQUESTIONABLE

and 6 more

Skill players in white, because every trend and coverage read on this page assumes the man is on the field. Designations as of 2026-09-07. Anyone cleared is absent from this list entirely.

New Orleans depth chart →Detroit depth chart →

Keys to the game

Saints

Has to

Make Goff uncomfortable

He is 3rd of 37 from a clean pocket, and Saints get pressure only 28.3%.

Has to

Keep a lid on it

Saints play two-high 35.0%, 4th-fewest, against the 6th explosive passing offense.

Lions

Give Goff a clean pocket

0.45 EPA a dropback clean, 3rd of 37. Saints get pressure 28.3%, 10th-lowest.

Take the shots downfield

Lions hit explosive passes 10.7%, 6th. Saints play two-high just 35.0%, 4th-fewest.

Each team in one line

SaintsNever break a long runworstCannot run it2nd-worstNever hit a deep one2nd-worstSit in Cover 31st

LionsProtect the football3rdThrow it well4thComplete everything5thStay under center4th-lowest

Full tendencies, 2025 regular season, ranked against all 32

New Orleans

How they play

They sit in Cover 340.4%Cover 3 rate1st

and they go no-huddle22.6%no-huddle rate2nd

and they load the box14.0%light box rate2nd-lowest

and they live in shotgun78.8%shotgun rate5th

Where they win and lose

They never break a long run7.9%explosive run rateworst

and they cannot run it-0.10EPA a run2nd-worst

and they never hit a deep one5.2%explosive pass rate2nd-worst

and they get sacks8.0%sack rate5th

Detroit

How they play

They stay under center51.5%shotgun rate4th-lowest

and they play man40.8%man coverage rate4th

Where they win and lose

They protect the football1.3%interception rate3rd

and they throw it well+0.17EPA a pass4th

and they complete everything63.6%completion rate5th

and they hit explosive passes10.7%explosive pass rate6th

New Orleans tendencies →Detroit tendencies →

Angles that fire on this game

None of our frozen angles fire here. The slate is registered before the season and never added to mid-week, so an empty game stays empty.

Player trends that apply to this game

Chris OlaveWR has 10 of his last 10 games indoors with 50+ receiving yards.

10 of 10, 100% in this spot · 2024-2025

11 of 20, 55% in every other spot

Amon-Ra St. BrownWR has 9 of his last 10 games indoors with 50+ receiving yards.

9 of 10, 90% in this spot · 2025

15 of 21, 71% in every other spot

Jared GoffQB has 7 of his last 10 games as an underdog with 2+ passing touchdowns.

7 of 10, 70% in this spot · 2025

7 of 22, 32% in every other spot

Jahmyr GibbsRB has 7 of his last 10 games at home with a rushing touchdown.

7 of 10, 70% in this spot · 2024-2025

11 of 25, 44% in every other spot

Travis EtienneRB has 7 of his last 10 games indoors with 50+ rushing yards.

7 of 10, 70% in this spot · 2023-2025

25 of 52, 48% in every other spot

The second number is the point. Everyone posts the first one.

Fantasy: who to start, and who they draw

New Orleans

Audric Estim<U+00E9>RB

37% of the carries · 6 red-zone touches

Chris OlaveWR

26% of the targets · 15 red-zone touches

Lions give up more to WRs than almost anyone, 6th

Juwan JohnsonTE

16% of the targets · 8 red-zone touches

Detroit

Jahmyr GibbsRB

56% of the carries · 67 red-zone touches

Amon-Ra St. BrownWR

28% of the targets · 36 red-zone touches

Sam LaPortaTE

16% of the targets · 6 red-zone touches

Saints are one of the hardest defenses for TEs, 27th

Usage is last season's average share and red-zone work. The defense line is what that team actually allowed to the position, ranked against all 32. Neither is a projection.

The last time they played

2023 wk 13

Lions at

Saints33-28Lions won, Lions covered

2020 wk 4

Saints at

Lions35-29Saints won, Saints covered

Against the spread in these meetings: 1-1 to Lions. Closing numbers, not openers.

Every meeting, with the lines →

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