Tyler Shough

New Orleans Saints·#6

Pos QBHt 6'5"Wt 219 lbExp 1 yrCollege Louisville

Updated September 21, 2026

QB rankings →

Model Score

79.0 MODEL

Resting on limited playing time

How good he is at what he is supposed to be doing, out of 100. Not a projection of what he will do next, and not a read on his contract. Median is about 70, and a 95 is rare. How it is built →

Tyler Shough Injury StatusNot listed

Tyler Shough is not on the injury report as of Sep 20. Source: the official NFL injury report, refreshed daily.

Tyler Shough Stats This Season · 1 games

410

Pass Yds

Pass TD

INT

63.6%

Comp %

Rush Yds

Rush TD

25.2

Fantasy PPG

Advanced Metrics EPA & Next Gen Stats

-2.2

Total EPA

-0.016

EPA / dropback

2.60s

Time to throw

8.8

Avg air yards

14.3%

Aggressiveness

51 yd

Longest comp (air)

Draft & College

Round 2, pick 40 · New Orleans Saints · 2025

Oregon (Pac-12)

Taken

#40

where he actually went

Consensus board

95th

average of the public big boards that spring

Our college model

#61

among QB in our college data

He went well ahead of consensus.

In college · 2019-2024 · 33 games

6,572 pass yds, 47 TD, 9 INT, 59.6% completions

Covers the college seasons in our data, which does not always reach back to a player's first year.

Coming out

9.71

RAS

4.63s

40 yd

32"

Vertical

117"

Broad

Comps

College career

his college career vs theirs

Byrum Brown87%Nick Stevens86%Logan Bonner85%

STM Take

His first NFL season produced surprisingly consistent low-twenties PPR output, with six of his last eight games over 17 PPR, but the tier 8 finish (#30) signals the underlying efficiency metrics have not matched the volume yet. He is a developmental starter with a clear path forward, but the 2026 trajectory depends entirely on whether EPA-per-play and CPOE numbers catch up to the counting stats.

Shough came out of Louisville as New Orleans's 2nd-round pick in the 2025 NFL Draft, capping a five-year college career that took him through Oregon, Texas Tech, and Louisville. At 6'5" with above-average mobility for his frame, he was the oldest rookie quarterback in the 2025 class at 24 on draft day. Multiple collegiate injuries (two broken collarbones during his Texas Tech years) defined the slow path to the league. New Orleans handed him the starting job midseason after the Derek Carr and Spencer Rattler combination produced a tier-8 stretch, and he held the role through Week 18.

Strengths

Eight consecutive games of at least 7.92 PPR is real baseline competence for a rookie. Six games at 17+ PPR is a meaningful sample of starter-grade output that most first-year starters cannot match.
6'5" frame plus the mobility to scramble gives him a high physical ceiling. Louisville's pro-style scheme prepared him for full-field NFL reads better than most rookies entering the league.

Concerns

Tier 8 finish (#30) means the production was volume-driven more than efficient. His Carr-replacement role inherited a soft schedule and good supporting weapons (Chris Olave, Alvin Kamara, Rashid Shaheed).
Single-season sample with no other NFL data, combined with a college history of two broken collarbones, makes the 2026 projection the most uncertain of any starting QB on the board.

What to watch: Whether his 2026 jump comes via efficiency gains (CPOE, EPA per play) or whether the volume-driven output regresses once defensive coordinators get a full offseason of tape on him.