Tyler Shough
New Orleans SaintsTyler Shough has 1,721 passing yards, 13 touchdown passes, 6 interceptions and 111 rushing yards in 7 games for the New Orleans Saints this season through Week 8, 18.8 PPR points a game (updated November 5, 2026).
Model Score by season
A career-high 81.5 this season, up from 80.8.
How good he is at what he is supposed to be doing, out of 100. Not a projection of what he will do next, and not a read on his contract. Median is about 70, and a 95 is rare. How it is built →
STM Take
A developmental starter whose volume outruns his efficiency.
The case for
- Eight consecutive games of at least 7.92 PPR is real baseline competence for a rookie. Six games at 17+ PPR is a meaningful sample of starter-grade output that most first-year starters cannot match.
- 6'5" frame plus the mobility to scramble gives him a high physical ceiling. Louisville's pro-style scheme prepared him for full-field NFL reads better than most rookies entering the league.
The worry
- Tier 8 finish (#30) means the production was volume-driven more than efficient. His Carr-replacement role inherited a soft schedule and good supporting weapons (Chris Olave, Alvin Kamara, Rashid Shaheed).
- Single-season sample with no other NFL data, combined with a college history of two broken collarbones, makes the 2026 projection the most uncertain of any starting QB on the board.
What to watch: Whether his 2026 jump comes via efficiency gains (CPOE, EPA per play) or whether the volume-driven output regresses once defensive coordinators get a full offseason of tape on him.
Full take and bio
His first NFL season produced surprisingly consistent low-twenties PPR output, with six of his last eight games over 17 PPR, but the tier 8 finish (#30) signals the underlying efficiency metrics have not matched the volume yet. He is a developmental starter with a clear path forward, but the 2026 trajectory depends entirely on whether EPA-per-play and CPOE numbers catch up to the counting stats.
Shough came out of Louisville as New Orleans's 2nd-round pick in the 2025 NFL Draft, capping a five-year college career that took him through Oregon, Texas Tech, and Louisville. At 6'5" with above-average mobility for his frame, he was the oldest rookie quarterback in the 2025 class at 24 on draft day. Multiple collegiate injuries (two broken collarbones during his Texas Tech years) defined the slow path to the league. New Orleans handed him the starting job midseason after the Derek Carr and Spencer Rattler combination produced a tier-8 stretch, and he held the role through Week 18.
Comps
The players whose size, testing and production looked most like his at the same point in their careers. The percent is how close.
Plays like: Boomer Esiason, Shaun Hill, Kirk Cousins. Built like: Chris Simms, Dan Orlovsky, Ryan Lindley. Coming out: Blake Bortles.
Of his 20 closest coming out: 3 stars, 4 starters, 9 backups, 4 didn't stick.
Tyler Shough Props This Weekvs CLE Sun Nov 8
| Market | Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|---|
| Anytime TD | +475 Fanatics |
Best price across 8 books as of Thu Nov 5. Lines move; check the book before you bet. This week's board · Line Room
Play Tyler's numbers on Underdog · partner link
Tyler Shough Injury StatusNot listed
Tyler Shough is not on the injury report as of Nov 5. Source: the official NFL injury report, refreshed daily.
This season · 7 games
18.8 fantasy points a game, 132 PPR on the season. Every game on the Game Log, every season on Career. Advanced numbers are EPA and Next Gen Stats.
Contract2026 cap
Every year of the deal, the dead money and what a cut or trade saves on the Contract tab.
Fantasy outlookWeek 9
Our rest-of-season board has Tyler Shough at QB14 (the public consensus says QB15); the model has 149 PPR points left for him this season; this week he hosts CLE.
Price a trade for him on the fantasy trade calculator, or see the whole board on the Fantasy hub.
Draft & College
Round 2, pick 40 to the New Orleans Saints in 2025, out of Louisville (ACC). He went well ahead of consensus.
In college, 2019-2024, 33 games: 6,502 pass yds, 51 TD, 9 INT, 59.6% completions. Coming out: RAS 9.71, 4.63s 40 yd, 32" vertical, 117" broad.
Recruited
Class of 2018 · Quarterback · High school: Hamilton, Chandler, AZ
His full list of offers is not on our record yet; offers for the 2018 class are still being added.