Tyler Shough

New Orleans Saints·#6

Pos QBHt 6'5"Wt 219 lbExp 1 yrCollege Louisville

Updated October 12, 2026

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Model Score

81.1 MODEL

Resting on limited playing time

2025

80.8

2026

81.1

How good he is at what he is supposed to be doing, out of 100. Not a projection of what he will do next, and not a read on his contract. Median is about 70, and a 95 is rare. How it is built →

STM Take

His first NFL season produced surprisingly consistent low-twenties PPR output, with six of his last eight games over 17 PPR, but the tier 8 finish (#30) signals the underlying efficiency metrics have not matched the volume yet. He is a developmental starter with a clear path forward, but the 2026 trajectory depends entirely on whether EPA-per-play and CPOE numbers catch up to the counting stats.

Shough came out of Louisville as New Orleans's 2nd-round pick in the 2025 NFL Draft, capping a five-year college career that took him through Oregon, Texas Tech, and Louisville. At 6'5" with above-average mobility for his frame, he was the oldest rookie quarterback in the 2025 class at 24 on draft day. Multiple collegiate injuries (two broken collarbones during his Texas Tech years) defined the slow path to the league. New Orleans handed him the starting job midseason after the Derek Carr and Spencer Rattler combination produced a tier-8 stretch, and he held the role through Week 18.

Strengths

Eight consecutive games of at least 7.92 PPR is real baseline competence for a rookie. Six games at 17+ PPR is a meaningful sample of starter-grade output that most first-year starters cannot match.
6'5" frame plus the mobility to scramble gives him a high physical ceiling. Louisville's pro-style scheme prepared him for full-field NFL reads better than most rookies entering the league.

Concerns

Tier 8 finish (#30) means the production was volume-driven more than efficient. His Carr-replacement role inherited a soft schedule and good supporting weapons (Chris Olave, Alvin Kamara, Rashid Shaheed).
Single-season sample with no other NFL data, combined with a college history of two broken collarbones, makes the 2026 projection the most uncertain of any starting QB on the board.

What to watch: Whether his 2026 jump comes via efficiency gains (CPOE, EPA per play) or whether the volume-driven output regresses once defensive coordinators get a full offseason of tape on him.