ATL at 
GBGB -6.5 / GB -2.55Sun 1:00 PM
CAR at 
CLECAR -2.5 / CAR -0.05Sun 1:00 PM
CIN at 
PITCIN -3.5 / PIT -1.89Sun 1:00 PM
HOU at 
INDHOU -1.5 / HOU -0.11Sun 1:00 PM
KC at 
MIAKC -10.5 / KC -4.89Sun 1:00 PM
LAC at 
BUFBUF -7 / BUF -6.25Sun 1:00 PM
NE at 
JAXJAX -3 / JAX -3.85Sun 1:00 PM
NYJ at 
DETDET -6.5 / DET -9.17Sun 1:00 PM
SEA at 
WASSEA -7.5 / SEA -2.75Sun 1:00 PM
TEN at 
NYGNYG -2.5 / NYG -4.42Sun 4:05 PM
ARI at 
SFSF -8.5 / SF -8.04Sun 4:05 PM
MIN at 
TBMIN -1.5 / TB -1.49Sun 4:25 PM
BAL at 
DALBAL -3.5 / BAL -0.91Sun 4:25 PM
LV at 
NONO -3 / NO -1.6Sun 8:20 PM
LA at 
DENLA -2.5 / DEN -1.93Mon 8:15 PM
PHI at 
CHIPHI -4.5 / CHI -0.75Depth charts and who's out
Who's out
Raiders
Aidan O'Connell QBPersonalQ
Brock Bowers TEKnee - MeniscusQ
Kwity Paye DEIllnessQ
Treydan Stukes SConcussionQ
Saints
Audric Estime RBThighIR
Kelvin Banks Jr. OTAnkleIR
Zach Wood LSCalfIR
Barion Brown WRHamstringQ
Kendre Miller RBIllnessQ
3 more
Travis Etienne Jr. RBHamstringQ
Christen Miller DTToeQ
Martin Emerson Jr. CBShoulderQ
Every read on this page assumes the man is on the field. Designations as of 2026-09-20.
The game
Saints ahead means Etienne carries it late; Raiders chasing means Cousins throws, and Tucker, Nailor and Bowers get the volume.
LV has to
Change the picture on Vele
He is -0.18 against man. Raiders play it 20.4%, 30th.
NO has to
Throw on first and second down
Saints pass on early downs 55.8%, 6th. Raiders are 15th-worst in early-down EPA allowed.
The model's play
Our total 47.9 vs 45.5 posted (indoors)
Won 53.5% of 1,975 past bets like it. The worst case we can be 80% sure of is 52.1%, which is still short of the 52.4% break-even.
Best price
NO -3 -115 at FanDuel, 20 booksbest on the board LV +3 +102 at DraftKings, 20 booksLV +3.5 -118at LowVig.agThe matchup
Raiders with the ballThe Saints defense has the edge in moving the ball.
Saints12thSaints11thSaints23rdSaints17thplay slow 2nd-slowestthrow it as much as anyone 4thsit in Cover 3 1stload the box 2nd-lowestSaints with the ballSaints: find Vele against zone.
Saints26thgo no-huddle 2ndlive in shotgun 5thplay zone 2ndsit in Cover 3 2ndRanks are 2025 regular season, 1st to 32nd, 1st best at the job either side. top 8 bottom 8
The game plan in words, and every rank (2025 regular season)
Raiders with the ballWhat they like to do Kubliak's Raiders play slow (2nd-slowest) and throw it as much as anyone (4th).
Where they win and lose They cannot move the ball (worst), cannot run it (worst) and get sacked (worst).
What the Saints defense brings They sit in cover 3 (1st), load the box (2nd-lowest) and almost never play man (5th-lowest) and they get sacks (5th).
What works against them Make them drive the length of the field (worst). Make them run it (worst).
Where the two meet No clash on this side rises past the noise.
Saints with the ballWhat they like to do Moore's Saints go no-huddle (2nd), live in shotgun (5th) and throw it as much as anyone (6th).
Where they win and lose They never break a long run (worst), cannot run it (2nd-worst) and never hit a deep one (2nd-worst).
What the Raiders defense brings They play zone (2nd), sit in cover 3 (2nd) and almost never blitz (6th-lowest) and they let everything get completed (3rd-worst) and cannot get pressure (5th-worst).
What works against them Load the box: they do not break long runs (worst). Make them run it (2nd-worst).
Where the two meet Saints: find Vele against zone. 0.71 EPA a target vs zone, 4th of 106. Raiders play zone 79.6%, 2nd. Saints: take the easy throws. Saints complete 62.5%, 10th. Raiders allow completions at the 3rd-highest rate.
Las Vegas
New Orleans
The bets
What the model likes
The information
Player angles
2 more player angles
Also posted, with no read either way: Kirk Cousins 212.5 passing yards (over in 14 of his 26, 2024-2026), Ashton Jeanty 69.5 rushing yards (over in 5 of his 19, 2025-2026), Chris Olave 77.5 receiving yards (over in 12 of his 26, 2024-2026), Brock Bowers 49.5 receiving yards (over in 16 of his 29, 2024-2025), Juwan Johnson 34.5 receiving yards (over in 21 of his 34, 2024-2026), Chris Olave 5.5 receptions (over in 15 of his 26, 2024-2026) and Juwan Johnson 3.5 receptions (over in 18 of his 34, 2024-2026).
Player trends
Game angles
First quarter: Saints -0.5 and a total of 7.5.
Game trends
A lean is where a record points. Only a record past the luck line is a bet; the rest is reading. The bar's tick is the line to beat. Confidence runs from 50, a coin flip, to 100.
Every read in full: the scores, the story and the receipts
The player lines
Under 22.5 receiving yards for Ashton Jeanty leads 16 lines. On 3, the player's history and the matchup agree.
Why 58
- The story No view on this one.
- The evidence 12 of 19 (63%) against a 52% baseline, 48% after shrinking for sample size.
- Agreement 1 other signal on the same side.
- The grid No held angle applies to this line.
- The matchup NO allow 21% less than league to RBs, 28th most.
- The price -115, which needs 53% to break even.
Why 58
- The story No view on this one.
- The evidence 23 of 36 (64%) against a 52% baseline, 53% after shrinking for sample size.
- Agreement 1 other signal on the same side.
- The grid No held angle applies to this line.
- The matchup NO allow 12% less than league to WRs, 28th most.
- The price -115, which needs 53% to break even.
Why 57
- The story No view on this one.
- The evidence 7 of 10 (70%) against a 64% baseline, 50% after shrinking for sample size.
- Agreement 1 other signal on the same side.
- The grid No held angle applies to this line.
- The matchup NO allow 12% less than league to WRs, 28th most.
- The price -115, which needs 53% to break even.
See all 16 player lines
Why 68
- The story No view on this one.
- The evidence 18 of 24 (75%) against a 52% baseline, 62% after shrinking for sample size.
- Agreement 1 other signal on the same side.
- The grid No held angle applies to this line.
- The matchup NO allow 9% less than league to WRs, 27th most.
- The price -160, which needs 62% to break even.
Why 64
- The story No view on this one.
- The evidence 25 of 36 (69%) against a 52% baseline, 59% after shrinking for sample size.
- Agreement 1 other signal on the same side.
- The grid No held angle applies to this line.
- The matchup NO allow 9% less than league to WRs, 27th most.
- The price -115, which needs 53% to break even.
Why 58
- The story No view on this one.
- The evidence 11 of 19 (58%) against a 52% baseline, 43% after shrinking for sample size.
- Agreement 1 other signal on the same side.
- The grid No held angle applies to this line.
- The matchup NO allow 17% less than league to RBs, 26th most.
- The price +120, which needs 45% to break even.
Why 57
- The story No view on this one.
- The evidence 7 of 13 (54%) against a 52% baseline, 37% after shrinking for sample size.
- Agreement 1 other signal on the same side.
- The grid No held angle applies to this line.
- The matchup NO allow 12% less than league to QBs, 29th most.
- The price -115, which needs 53% to break even.
Why 56
- The story No view on this one.
- The evidence 3 of 5 (60%) against a 50% baseline, 33% after shrinking for sample size.
- Agreement 1 other signal on the same side.
- The grid No held angle applies to this line.
- The matchup NO allow 6% less than league to QBs, 22nd most.
- The price -110, which needs 52% to break even.
Why 50
- The story No view on this one.
- The evidence 4 of 5 (80%) against a 62% baseline, 51% after shrinking for sample size.
- Agreement No other signal on this side.
- The grid No held angle applies to this line.
- The matchup NO allow 1% more than league to TEs, 17th most.
- The price -115, which needs 53% to break even.
Lines from Bovada as of 2026-09-25. A record is the player against the consensus closing line, every game since 2023, graded on the box score. Overs hit 46 to 48% league-wide; that is the bar, not 50. "Player and matchup agree" means he clears this number 60%+ in the situation this game puts him in AND the opponent allows 10%+ over league to his position. None of these has a graded record yet.
Player trends
Olave: 10 of his last 10 games indoors with 50+ receiving yards.
Chris OlaveWR indoors with 50+ receiving yardsWhy 77
- The story No view on this one.
- The evidence 10 of 10 (100%) against a 57% baseline, 86% after shrinking for sample size.
- Agreement 1 other signal on the same side.
How this is graded
The second number is the point. Everyone posts the first one.
Team trends
The last team here, the Panthers, Sep 10, 2000: beat the 49ers by 16 as a 3-point favorite.
Inside the luck line: 119 games, and shuffled results produce records like this one. Reading, not a bet; the lean is the Raiders.
The last time the Saints were here, Sep 15, 2002: beat the Packers by 15 as a 2.5-point underdog.
Inside the luck line: 228 games, and shuffled results produce records like this one. Reading, not a bet; the lean is the Saints.
See all 7 team trends
The last time the Raiders were here, Nov 29, 2020: lost to the Falcons by 37 as a 3.5-point favorite.
Inside the luck line: 91 games, and shuffled results produce records like this one. Reading, not a bet; the lean is the Saints.
Inside the luck line: 61 games, and shuffled results produce records like this one. Reading, not a bet; the lean is the under.
New Orleans have gone under as a home favoriteOn totals of 39.5 to 42; this game is 43.5, inside that.
Why 54
- The evidence 9 of 12 (75%) against a 58% baseline, 57% after shrinking for sample size.
- Agreement 1 other signal on the same side.
Las Vegas have gone under on the road indoorsOn totals of 39.5 to 46.5; this game is 43.5, inside that.
Why 54
- The evidence 7 of 10 (70%) against a 54% baseline, 50% after shrinking for sample size.
- Agreement 1 other signal on the same side.
Against the spread and the total, as far back as the current head coach and starting quarterback go (at least three seasons; each card says how far, and what changed). The second bar is the same team everywhere else, which is the number that tells you whether the first one means anything.
Model plays carry a live record. Prop spots and trends are situational reads, and no prop verdict has a graded record yet. When two sections disagree, both stay.
History
Last meetings
- 2024 wk 17Raiders at SaintsRaiders won, Raiders covered25-10
- 2022 wk 8Raiders at SaintsSaints won, Saints covered0-24
- 2020 wk 2Saints at RaidersRaiders won, Raiders covered24-34
Against the spread in these meetings: 2-1 to Raiders, on closing numbers.
The card
Betting PassThe number. The market has the Saints by 3 at a total of 43.5: Saints 23.2, Raiders 20.2 on paper.
How it plays. The total of 43.5 is ordinary. Raiders play slow (31st in plays a game). Indoors.
What changed. Raiders: TE Brock Bowers questionable. Saints: RB Travis Etienne Jr. questionable; WR Barion Brown questionable.
Model favorites
Two favorites from 25 signals: the total and a side. Data as of: forecast Fri 12:00 PM ET; injuries Fri 11:49 AM ET; model Fri 12:04 PM ET.
The total
1 reason for, 2 againstA side
3 reasons forHow the score works
Score is how much we trust a bet. 50 is a coin flip; the number is how far past it the evidence pushes: reasons for minus reasons against, and a reason from something with a years-long record counts more than a trend. Units follow it: a bet backed by a tracked record is 1 unit, 1.5 at 80 or more; a bet whose logic is sound but unproven is half a unit, and only at plus money or alongside a 1-unit bet on the same game. Click a bet for its reasons.