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StickToTheModel
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Week 3 · Sunday Sep 27 · Final

RaidersatSaints

FinalLV 35, NO 27Raiders by 8
SpreadNO -3.5Raiders covered
Total43.5went over, 62 points
OpenedNO -3moved 0.5 points by kickoff

The passing game. Expect the Saints to attack through the air all day.

Sunday: Saints threw for 255 yards and 4 touchdowns.

The model's reads, Over 45.5: it won.

The depth charts as they stand today.

Saints passing game, 19th, against a pass defense ranked 32nd.

Longer bar, better unit.

Raiders with the ball

Raiders offenseSaints defense
13th
Passing
19th
26th
Run game
20th
29th
Pass rush
13th
3rd
Third down
31st
23rd
Big plays
14th
20th
Turnovers
31st
21st
Red zone
13th

Saints with the ball

Saints offenseRaiders defense
19th
Passing
32nd
23rd
Run game
29th
9th
Pass rush
5th
4th
Third down
25th
30th
Big plays
31st
15th
Turnovers
18th
5th
Red zone
28th

Ranks run 1st (best) to 32nd, 2026 through week 9 as they stood at kickoff, close-game snaps.

Raiders scored 35 against a team total of 20: over.

Raiders scored 35 against a team total of 20: over. the spread and total, split.

Saints scored 27 against a team total of 23.5: over. the spread and total, split.

The situations on the schedule that fit this game.

This week · Raiders against a team on a three-game cover streak in the first four weeks with the worse quarterback by two tiers
69-45
this game200020052010201520202025
69 covered45 did notevery game since 1999, 61%; since 2021 12-10

The last time the Raiders were here, Sep 27, 2026: beat the Saints by 8 as a 3.5-point underdog.

Inside the luck line: 114 games, and shuffled results produce records like this one. Reading, not a bet; the lean is the Raiders.

This week · Saints in the first four weeks indoors with the worse head coach by two tiers
133-99
this game200020052010201520202025
133 covered99 did notevery game since 1999, 57%; since 2021 38-22

The last time the Saints were here, Sep 15, 2002: beat the Packers by 15 as a 2.5-point underdog.

Inside the luck line: 232 games, and shuffled results produce records like this one. Reading, not a bet; the lean is the Saints.

This week · Raiders with a first-year head coach after traveling 1,500 miles or more indoors
38-57
this game200020052010201520202025
38 covered57 did notevery game since 1999, 40%; since 2021 14-14

The last time the Raiders were here, Nov 29, 2020: lost to the Falcons by 37 as a 3.5-point favorite.

Inside the luck line: 95 games, and shuffled results produce records like this one. Reading, not a bet; the lean is the Saints.

Searched this week: 1,571 spread situations and 77 on the total, every attribute on the schedule alone, in pairs and in triples, against every game since 1999. The luck line sits at z 4.03 on the spread and 3.35 on the total.

No player line on this game was archived with a read.

Nothing was on the official card for this game.