Sam Darnold
Seattle Seahawks·#14Model Score
How good he is at what he is supposed to be doing, out of 100. Not a projection of what he will do next, and not a read on his contract. Median is about 70, and a 95 is rare. How it is built →
Season Stats · 1 games
Advanced Metrics EPA & Next Gen Stats
Draft & College
He went about where consensus had him.
Covers the college seasons in our data, which does not always reach back to a player's first year.
Comps
STM Take
Darnold at STTM #15 tier 4 is the lagging indicator of a Super Bowl LX win. The bust label is gone, but the rank still reflects six pre-2024 seasons of tier-8 or backup work. The case is a two-year sample of tier-3-or-better play stacked against the longest journeyman stretch in the top fifteen.
Darnold was born in Dana Point, California and won the 2016 Archie Griffin Award as a USC freshman before the Jets took him third overall in the 2018 NFL Draft. He bounced through New York, Carolina, and San Francisco as a backup or split starter through 2023, then broke out with the Vikings in 2024 and earned his first Pro Bowl nod. He signed with Seattle in 2025, led the Seahawks to Super Bowl LX, won it, and earned a second straight Pro Bowl.
Strengths
- Super Bowl LX champion and two-time Pro Bowler over the last two seasons, an arc no one else on this list has matched.
- Climbed from STTM #42 tier 8 in his pre-Minnesota era to top-15 in back-to-back years.
Concerns
- Career sample before 2024 reads STTM #34, #40, #42, all tier 8; two clean years against six bad ones is still a thin baseline.
- 62.3 percent career completion percentage and 82 career interceptions are the worst marks on the top-15 board.
What to watch: Whether the Super Bowl win compounds into a tier-1 or tier-2 finish, which would finally separate this from a two-year hot streak.
Fantasy Outlook
Sam Darnold scored 0.5 per game this season. Compare him against any QB and track weekly rankings in our fantasy tools.