The forecast has gusts to 16 miles an hour. Not enough on its own to move a total, but it is real.
ATL at 
GBGB -6.5 / GB -2.55Sun 1:00 PM
CAR at 
CLECAR -2.5 / CAR -0.05Sun 1:00 PM
CIN at 
PITCIN -3.5 / PIT -1.89Sun 1:00 PM
HOU at 
INDHOU -1.5 / HOU -0.11Sun 1:00 PM
KC at 
MIAKC -10.5 / KC -4.89Sun 1:00 PM
LAC at 
BUFBUF -7 / BUF -6.25Sun 1:00 PM
NE at 
JAXJAX -3 / JAX -3.85Sun 1:00 PM
NYJ at 
DETDET -6.5 / DET -9.17Sun 1:00 PM
SEA at 
WASSEA -7.5 / SEA -2.75Sun 1:00 PM
TEN at 
NYGNYG -2.5 / NYG -4.42Sun 4:05 PM
ARI at 
SFSF -8.5 / SF -8.04Sun 4:05 PM
MIN at 
TBMIN -1.5 / TB -1.49Sun 4:25 PM
BAL at 
DALBAL -3.5 / BAL -0.91Sun 4:25 PM
LV at 
NONO -3 / NO -1.6Sun 8:20 PM
LA at 
DENLA -2.5 / DEN -1.93Mon 8:15 PM
PHI at 
CHIPHI -4.5 / CHI -0.75Depth charts and who's out
Who's out
Vikings
Kyler Murray QBConcussionOUT
Jordan Mason RBThumbIR
Aaron Jones Sr. RBKneeQ
DeeJay Dallas RBToeQ
Brett Thorson PHamstringQ
3 more
Jake Golday LBAnkleQ
Jalen Redmond DTElbowQ
Nick Samac CKneeQ
Buccaneers
David Sills V WRIR
Josh Hayes CBKneeIR
Mohamed Kamara LBKneeIR
Anthony Nelson LBShinQ
Josiah Trotter LBShoulderQ
1 more
Rueben Bain Jr. LBGroinQ
Every read on this page assumes the man is on the field. Designations as of 2026-09-20.
The game
Close on paper, so neither side is scripted to chase: Mayfield and Wentz both throw, and the backs (Irving, Jones) carry it on whichever side gets ahead.
MIN has to
Send it at Mayfield
Blitz rate 46.1%, 1st. Mayfield falls to -0.15 EPA when blitzed, 32nd of 37.
TB has to
Find Jr. against zone
0.52 EPA a target vs zone, 13th of 106. Vikings play zone 81.7%, 1st.
The model's play
Our total 46.6 vs 45.5 posted (gusts 9 mph, rain 0.00 in at kickoff)
Won 53.5% of 1,975 past bets like it. The worst case we can be 80% sure of is 52.1%, which is still short of the 52.4% break-even.
Best price
TB +1.5 -110 at FanDuel, 20 booksTB +2 -112at BetRivers MIN -1.5 +101 at LowVig.ag, 20 booksMIN -0 -120at BetUSThe matchup
Vikings with the ballBuccaneers: blitz them.
Buccaneers20thBuccaneers3rdBuccaneers12thplay slow 3rd-slowestblitz 4thload the box 4th-lowestBuccaneers with the ballVikings: send it at Mayfield.
Vikings2ndVikings7thVikings6thBuccaneers23rdblitz 1stalmost never play man lowestNot a key: the Buccaneers blitz (4th) on Murray. He drops when blitzed like everyone, but from 8th in the league.
Ranks are 2025 regular season, 1st to 32nd, 1st best at the job either side. top 8 bottom 8
The game plan in words, and every rank (2025 regular season)
Vikings with the ballWhat they like to do O'Connell's Vikings play slow (3rd-slowest).
Where they win and lose They throw interceptions (worst), get sacked (2nd-worst) and cannot throw it (3rd-worst).
What the Buccaneers defense brings They blitz (4th) and load the box (4th-lowest) and they get pressure (3rd).
What works against them Make them throw: they give it away (worst). Bring pressure: they take sacks (2nd-worst).
Where the two meet Buccaneers: blitz them. Buccaneers blitz 33.7%, 4th. Vikings take sacks 11.0%, 2nd-most. Buccaneers: get home without blitzing. Pressure rate 34.5%, 3rd. Vikings take the 2nd-most sacks.
Buccaneers with the ballWhat they like to do Bowles's Buccaneers are middle of the league in how they play.
Where they win and lose Middle of the league on both sides of the ledger.
What the Vikings defense brings They blitz (1st), almost never play man (lowest) and play two-high (1st) and they shut offenses down (2nd) and get sacks (3rd).
What works against them Nothing on the ledger stands out; it comes down to the matchup below.
Where the two meet Vikings: send it at Mayfield. Blitz rate 46.1%, 1st. Mayfield falls to -0.15 EPA when blitzed, 31st of 36. Buccaneers: find Jr. against zone. 0.52 EPA a target vs zone, 13th of 106. Vikings play zone 81.7%, 1st.
Minnesota
Tampa Bay
The bets
What the model likes
The information
Player angles
3 more player angles
Also posted, with no read either way: Baker Mayfield 218.5 passing yards (over in 20 of his 36, 2024-2026), Jordan Addison 36.5 receiving yards (over in 15 of his 31, 2024-2026), Chris Godwin 35.5 receiving yards (over in 12 of his 18, 2024-2026), T.J. Hockenson 30.5 receiving yards (over in 13 of his 27, 2024-2026), Cade Otton 27.5 receiving yards (over in 18 of his 31, 2024-2026), Ted Hurst 22.5 receiving yards, Bucky Irving 16.5 receiving yards (over in 13 of his 29, 2024-2026), Jalen McMillan 13.5 receiving yards (over in 13 of his 17, 2024-2025), Kenneth Gainwell 11.5 receiving yards (over in 14 of his 35, 2024-2026), Chris Godwin 3.5 receptions (over in 12 of his 18, 2024-2026), Emeka Egbuka 3.5 receptions (over in 11 of his 19, 2025-2026), Jordan Addison 3.5 receptions (over in 12 of his 31, 2024-2026), T.J. Hockenson 3.5 receptions (over in 13 of his 27, 2024-2026), Bucky Irving 2.5 receptions (over in 16 of his 29, 2024-2026), Cade Otton 2.5 receptions (over in 22 of his 31, 2024-2026), Kenneth Gainwell 2.5 receptions (over in 14 of his 35, 2024-2026), Ted Hurst 2.5 receptions and Jalen McMillan 1.5 receptions (over in 11 of his 17, 2024-2025).
Player trends
Game angles
First quarter: Vikings -0.5 and a total of 7.5.
Game trends
A lean is where a record points. Only a record past the luck line is a bet; the rest is reading. The bar's tick is the line to beat. Confidence runs from 50, a coin flip, to 100.
Every read in full: the scores, the story and the receipts
The player lines
Over 12.5 receiving yards for Aaron Jones leads 28 lines. On 3, the player's history and the matchup agree.
Why 82
- The story Against it: a backup quarterback starts; the Vikings play slow.
- The evidence 13 of 16 (81%) against a 53% baseline, 66% after shrinking for sample size.
- Agreement 2 other signals on the same side.
- The grid No held angle applies to this line.
- The matchup TB allow 58% more than league to RBs, 1st most.
- The price -115, which needs 53% to break even.
Why 66
- The story Against it: a backup quarterback starts; the Vikings play slow.
- The evidence 11 of 16 (69%) against a 44% baseline, 53% after shrinking for sample size.
- Agreement 1 other signal on the same side.
- The grid No held angle applies to this line.
- The matchup TB allow 12% more than league to TEs, 8th most.
- The price -115, which needs 53% to break even.
Why 66
- The story Against it: a backup quarterback starts; the Vikings play slow.
- The evidence 6 of 9 (67%) against a 38% baseline, 45% after shrinking for sample size.
- Agreement 1 other signal on the same side.
- The grid No held angle applies to this line.
- The matchup TB allow 14% more than league to TEs, 6th most.
- The price +115, which needs 47% to break even.
See all 28 player lines
Why 80
- The story Against it: a backup quarterback starts; the Vikings play slow.
- The evidence 16 of 21 (76%) against a 40% baseline, 63% after shrinking for sample size.
- Agreement 2 other signals on the same side.
- The grid No held angle applies to this line.
- The matchup TB allow 3% more than league to WRs, 14th most.
- The price -120, which needs 55% to break even.
Why 80
- The story Against it: a backup quarterback starts; the Vikings play slow.
- The evidence 14 of 21 (67%) against a 33% baseline, 53% after shrinking for sample size.
- Agreement 2 other signals on the same side.
- The grid No held angle applies to this line.
- The matchup TB allow 4% more than league to WRs, 12th most.
- The price -145, which needs 59% to break even.
Why 60
- The story Against it: a backup quarterback starts; the Vikings play slow.
- The evidence 17 of 31 (55%) against a 48% baseline, 43% after shrinking for sample size.
- Agreement 2 other signals on the same side.
- The grid No held angle applies to this line.
- The matchup TB allow 14% more than league to RBs, 7th most.
- The price +115, which needs 47% to break even.
Why 58
- The story Against it: a backup quarterback starts; the Vikings play slow.
- The evidence 11 of 11 (100%) against a 85% baseline, 87% after shrinking for sample size.
- Agreement 1 other signal on the same side.
- The grid No held angle applies to this line.
- The matchup TB allow 3% more than league to WRs, 14th most.
- The price -120, which needs 55% to break even.
Why 58
- The story Against it: a backup quarterback starts; the Vikings play slow.
- The evidence 11 of 11 (100%) against a 85% baseline, 87% after shrinking for sample size.
- Agreement 1 other signal on the same side.
- The grid No held angle applies to this line.
- The matchup TB allow 4% more than league to WRs, 12th most.
- The price +100, which needs 50% to break even.
Why 52
- The story Against it: a backup quarterback starts; the Vikings play slow.
- The evidence 12 of 23 (52%) against a 48% baseline, 39% after shrinking for sample size.
- Agreement No other signal on this side.
- The grid No held angle applies to this line.
- The matchup TB allow 13% more than league to QBs, 4th most.
- The price -115, which needs 53% to break even.
Why 52
- The story No view on this one.
- The evidence 11 of 19 (58%) against a 52% baseline, 43% after shrinking for sample size.
- Agreement No other signal on this side.
- The grid No held angle applies to this line.
- The matchup MIN allow 12% less than league to WRs, 26th most.
- The price -115, which needs 53% to break even.
Lines from Bovada as of 2026-09-25. A record is the player against the consensus closing line, every game since 2023, graded on the box score. Overs hit 46 to 48% league-wide; that is the bar, not 50. "Player and matchup agree" means he clears this number 60%+ in the situation this game puts him in AND the opponent allows 10%+ over league to his position. None of these has a graded record yet.
Player trends
Jefferson: 9 of his last 10 games as a favorite with 50+ receiving yards.
Justin JeffersonWR as a favorite with 50+ receiving yardsWhy 75
- The story Against it: a backup quarterback starts; the Vikings play slow.
- The evidence 9 of 10 (90%) against a 56% baseline, 72% after shrinking for sample size.
- Agreement 2 other signals on the same side.
Bucky IrvingRB at home with 50+ rushing yardsWhy 70
- The story No view on this one.
- The evidence 9 of 10 (90%) against a 54% baseline, 72% after shrinking for sample size.
- Agreement No other signal on this side.
How this is graded
The second number is the point. Everyone posts the first one.
Team trends
The last time the Vikings were here, Dec 31, 2023: lost to the Packers by 23 as a 1-point favorite.
Inside the luck line: 53 games, and shuffled results produce records like this one. Reading, not a bet; the lean is the Vikings.
The last time the Buccaneers were here, Oct 9, 2022: beat the Falcons by 6 as a 10.5-point favorite.
Inside the luck line: 49 games, and shuffled results produce records like this one. Reading, not a bet; the lean is the Buccaneers.
See all 7 team trends
The last time the Buccaneers were here, Sep 18, 2005: beat the Bills by 16 as a 2.5-point favorite.
Inside the luck line: 127 games, and shuffled results produce records like this one. Reading, not a bet; the lean is the Buccaneers.
Inside the luck line: 61 games, and shuffled results produce records like this one. Reading, not a bet; the lean is the under.
Minnesota have covered as a favorite outdoorsWhy 70
- The evidence 10 of 12 (83%) against a 51% baseline, 66% after shrinking for sample size.
- Agreement 1 other signal on the same side.
Minnesota have covered outdoorsWhy 67
- The evidence 13 of 17 (76%) against a 50% baseline, 61% after shrinking for sample size.
- Agreement 1 other signal on the same side.
Against the spread and the total, as far back as the current head coach and starting quarterback go (at least three seasons; each card says how far, and what changed). The second bar is the same team everywhere else, which is the number that tells you whether the first one means anything.
Model plays carry a live record. Prop spots and trends are situational reads, and no prop verdict has a graded record yet. When two sections disagree, both stay.
History
Last meetings
- 2023 wk 1Buccaneers at VikingsBuccaneers won, Buccaneers covered20-17
- 2020 wk 14Vikings at BuccaneersBuccaneers won, Buccaneers covered14-26
Against the spread in these meetings: 0-2 to Vikings, on closing numbers.
The card
Betting PassThe number. The market has the Vikings by 1.5 at a total of 42.5: Vikings 22, Buccaneers 20.5 on paper.
How it plays. The total of 42.5 is ordinary. Vikings play slow (30th in plays a game).
What changed. Vikings: QB Kyler Murray out; RB Aaron Jones Sr. questionable. Buccaneers: no starter on the report.
Model favorites
One favorite from 29 signals: the total. Data as of: forecast Fri 12:00 PM ET; injuries Fri 11:49 AM ET; model Fri 12:04 PM ET.
The total
1 reason forHow the score works
Score is how much we trust a bet. 50 is a coin flip; the number is how far past it the evidence pushes: reasons for minus reasons against, and a reason from something with a years-long record counts more than a trend. Units follow it: a bet backed by a tracked record is 1 unit, 1.5 at 80 or more; a bet whose logic is sound but unproven is half a unit, and only at plus money or alongside a 1-unit bet on the same game. Click a bet for its reasons.