Aaron Jones

Minnesota Vikings·#33

Pos RBHt 5'9"Wt 208 lbExp 9 yrCollege Texas-El Paso

Updated October 9, 2026

Compare Aaron Jones RB rankings →

Model Score

85.8 MODEL

2018

82.6

2019

94.2

2020

93.0

2021

91.7

2022

90.7

2023

80.5

2024

87.2

2025

76.6

2026

85.8

How good he is at what he is supposed to be doing, out of 100. Not a projection of what he will do next, and not a read on his contract. Median is about 70, and a 95 is rare. How it is built →

STM Take

The Aaron Jones career arc is now clearly in its final chapter. From two top-10 finishes (#6 in 2019, #7 in 2021) to #11 in 2023, #21 in 2024, and #38 in 2025, the trajectory is monotonic. The eight-game late-2025 sample (peak of 15.3 PPR with a 0-0-0 string across Wks 16-19 in the duplicate game logs) shows what age-32 RB usage looks like when the offense moves to a younger committee.

Jones came out of UTEP as Green Bay's 5th-round pick (182nd overall) in 2017, one of the great mid-round value picks of the decade. He made two Pro Bowls with the Packers (2020, 2023), posted four 1,000-yard rushing seasons (including a 16-touchdown 2019), and was the focal point of multiple Green Bay playoff runs. He signed with Minnesota in March 2024 and put up a tier-6 #21 first season, then re-signed for 2025 ahead of his age-32 campaign.

Strengths

Two Pro Bowls, four 1,000-yard rushing seasons, and a career 4.9 YPC are a Hall-of-Very-Good production line that few backs of his era will match.
Career receiving production (250+ catches across 9 seasons) keeps him relevant on third downs even when the early-down workload thins, which is exactly the role he played most of 2025.

Concerns

The STTM arc from #6 (2019) to #38 (2025) is the textbook decline curve for a back entering his 30s. The 0-0-0 stretch across Wks 16-19 (per the duplicate game logs) shows the Vikings have already shifted to the next body.
At 32 with five 1,000-touch seasons behind him, the injury floor only gets lower and the per-touch efficiency continues to drop.

What to watch: Whether Minnesota retains him for 2026 as a veteran piece or releases him to clear cap and reps for a younger committee build around Jordan Mason.

Comps

Overall match

size, testing and production, same career stage

LeSean McCoy ’1757%Marshawn Lynch ’1555%Earnest Byner ’9255%

Famous comp

names you know, same point in their careers (around year 10)

Ahman Green ’0677%Curtis Martin ’0377%

Plays like

on-field production only

Saquon Barkley ’2589%Tony Pollard ’2486%Emmitt Smith ’9785%

Built like

measurables only, his size

Brandon Jackson84%JaMycal Hasty83%Bishop Sankey80%

Aaron Jones Props This Weekat NO Sun Oct 11

Market	Line	Over	Under
Rushing yards	72.5	-113 BetRivers	-114 FanDuel
Carries	17.5	+100 Fanatics	-110 BetMGM
Receptions	2.5	-165 BetMGM	+130 FanDuel
Receiving yards	19.5	-110 BetMGM	-109 DraftKings
Longest reception	9.5	-120 Bovada	-107 DraftKings
Longest rush	15.5	-120 DraftKings	-108 DraftKings
Anytime TD		-120 FanDuel