Justin Jefferson

WR·

Minnesota Vikings·#18·6'1"·192 lb·6th year·LSU

Tier 1Round 1, pick 22 in 2020

Updated October 28, 2026

89.8

Model Score

Up from 84.5 last year

Trade value ·a mid 1st

Player comps Be the Vikings GM →

Model Score by season

Up 5.3 from last season.

How good he is at what he is supposed to be doing, out of 100. Not a projection of what he will do next, and not a read on his contract. Median is about 70, and a 95 is rare. How it is built →

STM Take

An elite receiver dragged down by a broken quarterback situation.

The case for

2022 NFL OPOY + two first-team All-Pros + four Pro Bowls + 2022 NFL receptions and yards titles; the resume is locked in the all-time elite tier.
Recent game log still shows the talent: 18.4 PPR Week 18, 14.5 PPR Week 16 in a broken QB ecosystem.

The worry

36-rank slide is by far the steepest in the entire WR top-50; the QB-driven story can mask but not erase the data point.
Three consecutive sub-5 PPR weeks (Wk 13-15) show the floor when McCarthy struggles.

What to watch: Whether J.J. McCarthy's year-three jump (or a system change) restores Jefferson to tier-1; the talent has not moved.

Full take and bio

Jefferson's drop from STTM #5 tier 1 in 2024 to #41 tier 6 in 2025 is the steepest WR fall on the board, driven entirely by J.J. McCarthy's tier-8 QB rank in his year-two debut. The 2022 OPOY and two first-team All-Pro selections sit on his resume; the 2025 rank reflects a QB ecosystem in crisis. Tier 6 is not a Justin Jefferson floor; it is a J.J. McCarthy floor.

Jefferson was born in St. Rose, Louisiana, attended Destrehan High, and won the 2019 CFP national title at LSU as the co-NCAA receptions leader. Minnesota took him 22nd overall in the 2020 NFL Draft. He won 2022 NFL Offensive Player of the Year, has been first-team All-Pro twice (2022, 2024), and has four Pro Bowls. He also led the NFL in receptions and receiving yards in 2022.

Comps

The players whose size, testing and production looked most like his at the same point in their careers. The percent is how close.

Isaac Bruce ’9981%

Terry McLaurin ’2479%

Chris Godwin Jr. ’2473%Greg Jennings ’1169%

Plays like: Curtis Conway, Cris Carter, Joey Galloway. Built like: Jason McAddley, Chris Godwin, Ben Obomanu. Coming out: Amari Cooper, Justin Blackmon, Austin Collie.

Of his 20 closest coming out: 2 stars, 9 starters, 7 backups, 2 didn't stick.