Justin Jefferson

Minnesota Vikings·#18

Pos WRHt 6'1"Wt 192 lbExp 5 yrCollege LSU

WR rankings →

Model Score

82.4 MODEL

2020

85.5

2021

91.6

2022

92.3

2023

91.0

2024

92.0

2025

82.4

How good he is at what he is supposed to be doing, out of 100. Not a projection of what he will do next, and not a read on his contract. Median is about 70, and a 95 is rare. How it is built →

Season Stats · 17 games

8410th

Rec

1,04811th

Rec Yds

264th

Rec TD

1426th

Targets

61.618th

Yds/Gm

11.929th

Fantasy PPG

Advanced Metrics EPA & Next Gen Stats

0.95777th

EPA / target

3.2 yd26th

Avg separation

5.8 yd

Avg cushion

0.927th

YAC over exp

59.7%

Catch %

STM Take

Jefferson's drop from STTM #5 tier 1 in 2024 to #41 tier 6 in 2025 is the steepest WR fall on the board, driven entirely by J.J. McCarthy's tier-8 QB rank in his year-two debut. The 2022 OPOY and two first-team All-Pro selections sit on his resume; the 2025 rank reflects a QB ecosystem in crisis. Tier 6 is not a Justin Jefferson floor; it is a J.J. McCarthy floor.

Jefferson was born in St. Rose, Louisiana, attended Destrehan High, and won the 2019 CFP national title at LSU as the co-NCAA receptions leader. Minnesota took him 22nd overall in the 2020 NFL Draft. He won 2022 NFL Offensive Player of the Year, has been first-team All-Pro twice (2022, 2024), and has four Pro Bowls. He also led the NFL in receptions and receiving yards in 2022.

Strengths

2022 NFL OPOY + two first-team All-Pros + four Pro Bowls + 2022 NFL receptions and yards titles; the resume is locked in the all-time elite tier.
Recent game log still shows the talent: 18.4 PPR Week 18, 14.5 PPR Week 16 in a broken QB ecosystem.

Concerns

36-rank slide is by far the steepest in the entire WR top-50; the QB-driven story can mask but not erase the data point.
Three consecutive sub-5 PPR weeks (Wk 13-15) show the floor when McCarthy struggles.

What to watch: Whether J.J. McCarthy's year-three jump (or a system change) restores Jefferson to tier-1; the talent has not moved.