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PlayerJustin Jefferson · WR, Minnesota Vikings, Model Score 89.8Be the Vikings GM

Justin Jefferson

Minnesota Vikings·#18
Pos WRHt 6'1"Wt 192 lbExp 6 yrCollege LSU
Updated October 9, 2026
Compare Justin Jefferson WR rankings →

Model Score

89.8 MODEL
2020
93.0
2021
94.2
2022
99.0
2023
84.5
2024
94.2
2025
84.5
2026
89.8

How good he is at what he is supposed to be doing, out of 100. Not a projection of what he will do next, and not a read on his contract. Median is about 70, and a 95 is rare. How it is built →

STM Take

Jefferson's drop from STTM #5 tier 1 in 2024 to #41 tier 6 in 2025 is the steepest WR fall on the board, driven entirely by J.J. McCarthy's tier-8 QB rank in his year-two debut. The 2022 OPOY and two first-team All-Pro selections sit on his resume; the 2025 rank reflects a QB ecosystem in crisis. Tier 6 is not a Justin Jefferson floor; it is a J.J. McCarthy floor.

Jefferson was born in St. Rose, Louisiana, attended Destrehan High, and won the 2019 CFP national title at LSU as the co-NCAA receptions leader. Minnesota took him 22nd overall in the 2020 NFL Draft. He won 2022 NFL Offensive Player of the Year, has been first-team All-Pro twice (2022, 2024), and has four Pro Bowls. He also led the NFL in receptions and receiving yards in 2022.

Strengths

  • 2022 NFL OPOY + two first-team All-Pros + four Pro Bowls + 2022 NFL receptions and yards titles; the resume is locked in the all-time elite tier.
  • Recent game log still shows the talent: 18.4 PPR Week 18, 14.5 PPR Week 16 in a broken QB ecosystem.

Concerns

  • 36-rank slide is by far the steepest in the entire WR top-50; the QB-driven story can mask but not erase the data point.
  • Three consecutive sub-5 PPR weeks (Wk 13-15) show the floor when McCarthy struggles.

What to watch: Whether J.J. McCarthy's year-three jump (or a system change) restores Jefferson to tier-1; the talent has not moved.

Comps

Overall match
size, testing and production, same career stage
Chris Godwin Jr. ’2472%Greg Jennings ’1169%Terry McLaurin ’2467%
Famous comp
names you know, same point in their careers (around year 7)
Eddie Brown ’9083%Isaac Bruce ’9978%
Plays like
on-field production only
John Taylor ’9088%Anthony Carter ’8686%Irving Fryar ’9585%
Built like
measurables only, his size
Jason McAddley93%Chris Godwin89%Ben Obomanu89%
Coming out
pros whose college production, size and testing looked like his
Amari Cooper ’1578%Justin Blackmon ’1276%Austin Collie ’0976%

Names you know nearby: Josh Doctson ’16 72%.

Of his 20 closest coming out: 2 stars, 9 starters, 7 backups, 2 didn't stick.

Justin Jefferson Props This Weekat NO Sun Oct 11

MarketLineOverUnder
Anytime TD+170 DraftKings

Best price across 9 books as of Fri Oct 9. Lines move; check the book before you bet. This week's board · Line Room

Play Justin's numbers on Underdog · partner link

Justin Jefferson Injury StatusQuestionable

Justin Jefferson is listed Questionable (Ankle), reported Oct 9. Source: the official NFL injury report, refreshed daily.

Justin Jefferson Stats This Season · 3 games

13
Rec
179
Rec Yds
2
Rec TD
18
Targets
59.7
Yds/Gm
14.3
Fantasy PPG

Advanced Metrics EPA & Next Gen Stats

1.378
EPA / target
3.0 yd
Avg separation
4.3 yd
Avg cushion
1.3
YAC over exp
69.4%
Catch %

Draft & College

Round 1, pick 22 · Minnesota Vikings · 2020
LSU (SEC)
Taken
#22
where he actually went
Consensus board
18th
average of the public big boards that spring
Our college model
#1
among WR in our college data

He went about where consensus had him.

In college · 2018-2019 · 28 games
165 rec, 2,435 yds, 24 TD, 14.8 yds/rec

Covers the college seasons in our data, which does not always reach back to a player's first year.

Coming out
4.43s
40 yd
37.5"
Vertical
126"
Broad

Justin Jefferson Fantasy Outlook

Justin Jefferson scored 43 PPR points, 14.3 per game this season. Compare him against any WR and track weekly rankings in our fantasy tools.

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