PIT at 
CLEPIT -3 / PIT -1.83Sun 9:30 AM
IND at 
WASIND -4.5 / WAS -0.51Sun 1:00 PM
ARI at 
NYGNYG -2.5 / ARI -0.22Sun 1:00 PM
DAL at 
HOUHOU -3 / HOU -3.33Sun 1:00 PM
GB at 
TBGB -1.5 / TB -1.3Sun 1:00 PM
JAX at 
CINCIN -3 / CIN -2.33Sun 1:00 PM
LA at 
PHILA -2.5 / PHI -2.67Sun 1:00 PM
NE at 
BUFBUF -5.5 / BUF -6.23Sun 1:00 PM
NYJ at 
CHICHI -3 / CHI -3.85Sun 1:00 PM
TEN at 
BALBAL -10.5 / BAL -10.07Sun 4:05 PM
MIA at 
MINMIN -10.5 / MIN -8.81Sun 4:25 PM
DEN at 
SFSF -3 / SF -3.29Sun 4:25 PM
KC at 
LVKC -6 / KC -4.69Sun 4:25 PM
LAC at 
SEASEA -6.5 / SEA -5.56Sun 8:20 PM
DET at 
CARDET -3 / DET -1.53Mon 8:15 PM
ATL at 
NONO -3.5 / NO -3.56Depth charts and who's out
Who's out
Broncos
Jonathon Cooper LBPersonalOUT
Nick Gargiulo GKnee - ACLOUT
Caleb Lohner TELower BodyIR
Jonah Coleman RBAnkleIR
Frank Crum OTIR
5 more
Levelle Bailey LBLegIR
Matt Henningsen DEAchillesIR
Michael Deiter CQuadricepsIR
Jaylen Waddle WRLegQ
Marvin Mims Jr. WRFootQ
49ers
Brandon Aiyuk WRPersonalOUT
Kurtis Rourke QBCoach's DecisionOUT
Enrique Cruz Jr. OTCoach's DecisionOUT
Ephesians Prysock CBCoach's DecisionOUT
James Thompson Jr. DTAnkleOUT
12 more
Nick Bosa DECalfOUT
Tatum Bethune LBCoach's DecisionOUT
De'Zhaun Stribling WRAnkleIR
Demarcus Robinson WRAnkleIR
Jake Tonges TEKnee - MCLIR
Alfred Collins DTKneeIR
C.J. West DTIR
Mike Evans WRRibsQ
Dre Greenlaw LBQuadricepsQ
Gracen Halton DTAnkleQ
Romello Height DEHandQ
Trent Williams OTNeckQ
Every read on this page assumes the man is on the field. Designations as of 2026-09-30.
The game
The model's play
Nothing on the official card for this game.
Best price
The books have not been polled for this game yet.
The setting
The matchup
Broncos with the ballBroncos: find Waddle against zone.
Broncos25thnow 8thBroncos32ndnow 10thBroncos31stBroncos31stnow 15thplay fast 4thsit in Cover 3 6th49ers with the ballBroncos: send it at Purdy.
never go no-huddle 6th-loweststay under center 6th-lowestplay man 1stplay single-high 4thNot a key: pace. Broncos 4th and 49ers 10th in plays a game. Both play fast, so the total leans over.
Big ranks are the 2025 regular season, 1st to 32nd, 1st best at the job either side; "now" is 2026 so far (2 to 3 games a team, too few to trust alone). top 8 bottom 8
The game plan in words, and every rank (2025 regular season)
Broncos with the ballWhat they like to do Payton's Broncos play fast (4th).
Where they win and lose They protect the quarterback (1st).
What the 49ers defense brings They sit in cover 3 (6th) and they cannot get a sack (worst), let everything get completed (worst) and never take it away (2nd-worst).
What works against them Nothing on the ledger stands out; it comes down to the matchup below.
Where the two meet Broncos: find Waddle against zone. In 2025: 0.37 EPA a target vs zone on 76 targets, 38th of 106 among receivers with 50+ targets. 49ers played zone 75.4% in 2025, 8th. Broncos: run the offense. Broncos are 10th in EPA a play. 49ers are 8th-worst in EPA allowed. Nothing fancy needed.
49ers with the ballWhat they like to do Shanahan's 49ers never go no-huddle (6th-lowest) and stay under center (6th-lowest).
Where they win and lose They complete everything (1st), protect the quarterback (4th) and move the ball (6th).
What the Broncos defense brings They play man (1st), play single-high (4th) and blitz (6th) and they get sacks (1st), make throws hard (1st) and shut offenses down (5th).
What works against them Nothing on the ledger stands out; it comes down to the matchup below.
Where the two meet Broncos: send it at Purdy. Blitz rate 32.2%, 6th. Purdy falls to -0.12 EPA when blitzed, 28th of 36. 49ers: find Sr. against man. In 2025: 0.74 EPA a target vs man on 37 targets, 4th of 106 among receivers with 50+ targets. Broncos played man 44.6% in 2025, 1st.
Denver
San Francisco
The bets
What the model likes
Nothing on the official card for this game.
The information
All the evidence
Player angles
No posted player line has an angle firing on it this week.
Player trends
4 more player trends
Game angles
Game trends
Neither team has a trend on the spread or the total in this spot.
A lean is where a record points. Only a record past the luck line is a bet; the rest is reading. The bar's tick is the line to beat. Confidence runs from 50, a coin flip, to 100.
Every read in full: the scores, the story and the receipts
The player lines
No player lines posted for this game yet.
Player trends
McCaffrey: 9 of his last 10 games as a favorite with a rushing touchdown.
Christian McCaffreyRB as a favorite with a rushing touchdownWhy 80
- The story No view on this one.
- The evidence 9 of 10 (90%) against a 17% baseline, 72% after shrinking for sample size.
- Agreement 2 other signals on the same side.
George KittleTE at home as a favorite with 50+ receiving yardsWhy 76
- The story No view on this one.
- The evidence 9 of 10 (90%) against a 53% baseline, 72% after shrinking for sample size.
- Agreement 1 other signal on the same side.
See all 3 player trends
Courtland SuttonWR outdoors as an underdog with 50+ receiving yardsWhy 61
- The story With it: the Broncos chase, so Nix throws; the Broncos play fast.
- The evidence 9 of 10 (90%) against a 62% baseline, 72% after shrinking for sample size.
- Agreement No other signal on this side.
The second number is the point. Everyone posts the first one.
Team trends
The last time the 49ers were here, Dec 10, 2000: lost to the Saints by 4 as a 3-point favorite.
Inside the luck line: 135 games, and shuffled results produce records like this one. Reading, not a bet; the lean is the 49ers.
Inside the luck line: 62 games, and shuffled results produce records like this one. Reading, not a bet; the lean is the under.
See all 3 team trends
Against the spread and the total, as far back as the current head coach and starting quarterback go (at least three seasons; each card says how far, and what changed). The second bar is the same team everywhere else, which is the number that tells you whether the first one means anything.
Model plays carry a live record. Prop spots and trends are situational reads, and no prop verdict has a graded record yet. A player and stat gets one verdict on this page: when reads disagree we weigh them, this season first, and name the side with the reasons against it.
History
Last meetings
- 2022 wk 349ers at BroncosBroncos won, Broncos covered10-11
Against the spread in these meetings: 1-0 to Broncos, on closing numbers.
The card
Betting PassThe number. The market has the 49ers by 3 at a total of 47.5: 49ers 25.2, Broncos 22.2 on paper.
How it plays. The total of 47.5 is ordinary. Broncos play fast (4th in plays a game).
What changed. Broncos: WR Jaylen Waddle questionable; WR Marvin Mims Jr. questionable. 49ers: WR Mike Evans questionable; RDE Nick Bosa out.
Model favorites
No favorite from 4 signals. The angles are reading, not picks. Data as of: forecast Wed 4:10 PM ET; injuries Wed 12:50 PM ET; model Sun 12:05 PM ET.
How the score works
Score is how much we trust a bet. 50 is a coin flip; the number is how far past it the evidence pushes: reasons for minus reasons against, and a reason from something with a years-long record counts more than a trend. Units follow it: a bet backed by a tracked record is 1 unit, 1.5 at 80 or more; a bet whose logic is sound but unproven is half a unit, and only at plus money or alongside a 1-unit bet on the same game. Click a bet for its reasons.