PIT at 
CLEPIT -3 / PIT -1.83Sun 9:30 AM
IND at 
WASIND -4.5 / WAS -0.51Sun 1:00 PM
ARI at 
NYGNYG -2.5 / ARI -0.22Sun 1:00 PM
DAL at 
HOUHOU -3 / HOU -3.33Sun 1:00 PM
GB at 
TBGB -1.5 / TB -1.3Sun 1:00 PM
JAX at 
CINCIN -3 / CIN -2.33Sun 1:00 PM
LA at 
PHILA -2.5 / PHI -2.67Sun 1:00 PM
NE at 
BUFBUF -5.5 / BUF -6.23Sun 1:00 PM
NYJ at 
CHICHI -3 / CHI -3.85Sun 1:00 PM
TEN at 
BALBAL -10.5 / BAL -10.07Sun 4:05 PM
MIA at 
MINMIN -10.5 / MIN -8.81Sun 4:25 PM
DEN at 
SFSF -3 / SF -3.29Sun 4:25 PM
KC at 
LVKC -6 / KC -4.69Sun 4:25 PM
LAC at 
SEASEA -6.5 / SEA -5.56Sun 8:20 PM
DET at 
CARDET -3 / DET -1.53Mon 8:15 PM
ATL at 
NONO -3.5 / NO -3.56Depth charts and who's out
Who's out
Packers
Jayden Reed WRNeckOUT
Luke Musgrave TENeckOUT
Jordon Riley DTAchillesOUT
Micah Parsons DEKnee - ACLOUT
Savion Williams WRAnkleIR
7 more
Collin Oliver DEAchillesIR
Zach Bako-Bewele OTKneeIR
Aaron Banks GToeQ
Anthony Campbell DTAnkleQ
Edgerrin Cooper LBHeadQ
Jacob Monk CQ
Warren Brinson DTCalfQ
Buccaneers
Baker Mayfield QBThumbOUT
Ayden Garnes CBCoach's DecisionOUT
Billy Schrauth GCoach's DecisionOUT
Luke Haggard GCoach's DecisionOUT
Rakeem Nunez-Roches DTCoach's DecisionOUT
7 more
David Sills V WRIR
Jalen McMillan WRKnee - PCLIR
Deshawn McKnight DTHamstringIR
Josh Hayes CBKneeIR
Mohamed Kamara LBKneeIR
Josiah Trotter LBShoulderQ
Rueben Bain Jr. LBGroinQ
Every read on this page assumes the man is on the field. Designations as of 2026-09-30.
The game
The model's play
Nothing on the official card for this game.
Weather at kickoff
Best price
The books have not been polled for this game yet.
The setting
The forecast has gusts to 21 miles an hour and 0.09 inches of rain. Not enough on its own to move a total, but it is real.
The matchup
Packers with the ballBuccaneers: load the box.
Packers20thnow 16thPackers23rdnow 31stBuccaneers3rdrun it more than almost anyone 5th-lowestblitz 4thload the box 4th-lowestBuccaneers with the ballBuccaneers: find Jr. against zone.
Buccaneers28thnow 14thalmost never play man 2nd-lowestsit in Cover 3 3rdNot a key: the Buccaneers blitz (4th) on Love. He drops when blitzed like everyone, but from 2nd in the league.
Big ranks are the 2025 regular season, 1st to 32nd, 1st best at the job either side; "now" is 2026 so far (2 to 3 games a team, too few to trust alone). top 8 bottom 8
The game plan in words, and every rank (2025 regular season)
Packers with the ballWhat they like to do LaFleur's Packers run it more than almost anyone (5th-lowest).
Where they win and lose They throw it well (3rd), move the ball (4th) and hit explosive passes (5th).
What the Buccaneers defense brings They blitz (4th) and load the box (4th-lowest) and they get pressure (3rd).
What works against them Nothing on the ledger stands out; it comes down to the matchup below.
Where the two meet Buccaneers: load the box. Buccaneers load the box 5.6%, 3rd-most. Packers run it: 52.3% pass rate, 5th-fewest. Packers: take the easy throws. Packers complete 63.2%, 7th. Buccaneers allow completions at the 10th-highest rate.
Buccaneers with the ballWhat they like to do Bowles's Buccaneers are middle of the league in how they play.
Where they win and lose Middle of the league on both sides of the ledger.
What the Packers defense brings They almost never play man (2nd-lowest), sit in cover 3 (3rd) and almost never blitz (4th-lowest) and they never take it away (5th-worst).
What works against them Nothing on the ledger stands out; it comes down to the matchup below.
Where the two meet Buccaneers: find Jr. against zone. In 2025: 0.52 EPA a target vs zone on 36 targets, 12th of 106 among receivers with 50+ targets. Packers played zone 79.4% in 2025, 3rd.
Green Bay
Tampa Bay
The bets
What the model likes
Nothing on the official card for this game.
The information
All the evidence
Player angles
No posted player line has an angle firing on it this week.
Player trends
Game angles
6 more game angles
Game trends
A lean is where a record points. Only a record past the luck line is a bet; the rest is reading. The bar's tick is the line to beat. Confidence runs from 50, a coin flip, to 100.
Every read in full: the scores, the story and the receipts
The player lines
No player lines posted for this game yet.
Player trends
Jacobs: 8 of his last 10 games as a favorite with a rushing touchdown.
Josh JacobsRB as a favorite with a rushing touchdownWhy 72
- The story No view on this one.
- The evidence 8 of 10 (80%) against a 32% baseline, 60% after shrinking for sample size.
- Agreement No other signal on this side.
Bucky IrvingRB at home with 50+ rushing yardsWhy 70
- The story No view on this one.
- The evidence 9 of 10 (90%) against a 54% baseline, 72% after shrinking for sample size.
- Agreement No other signal on this side.
How this is graded
The second number is the point. Everyone posts the first one.
Team trends
The last time the Buccaneers were here, Oct 29, 2000: beat the Vikings by 28 as a 3-point favorite.
Inside the luck line: 210 games, and shuffled results produce records like this one. Reading, not a bet; the lean is the Buccaneers.
The last time the Buccaneers were here, Oct 8, 2006: lost to the Saints by 3 as a 7-point underdog.
Inside the luck line: 123 games, and shuffled results produce records like this one. Reading, not a bet; the lean is the Buccaneers.
See all 8 team trends
The last time the Buccaneers were here, Sep 24, 2006: lost to the Panthers by 2 as a 3-point underdog.
Inside the luck line: 127 games, and shuffled results produce records like this one. Reading, not a bet; the lean is the Buccaneers.
Inside the luck line: 109 games, and shuffled results produce records like this one. Reading, not a bet; the lean is the over.
Green Bay have gone under after a loss with extra restOn totals of 38.5 to 48; this game is 39.5, inside that.
On the card, 1uWhy 79
- The evidence 7 of 9 (78%) against a 39% baseline, 57% after shrinking for sample size.
- Agreement 3 other signals on the same side.
- Where it went On the card, 1u.
Green Bay have gone under on the road after a lossOn totals of 39.5 to 48; this game is 39.5, inside that.
On the card, 1uWhy 76
- The evidence 8 of 11 (73%) against a 38% baseline, 53% after shrinking for sample size.
- Agreement 3 other signals on the same side.
- Where it went On the card, 1u.
Green Bay have gone over on the road with a total of 41 or underOn totals of 37 to 41; this game is 39.5, inside that.
Why 56
- The evidence 6 of 8 (75%) against a 51% baseline, 52% after shrinking for sample size.
- Agreement 1 other signal on the same side.
Against the spread and the total, as far back as the current head coach and starting quarterback go (at least three seasons; each card says how far, and what changed). The second bar is the same team everywhere else, which is the number that tells you whether the first one means anything.
Model plays carry a live record. Prop spots and trends are situational reads, and no prop verdict has a graded record yet. A player and stat gets one verdict on this page: when reads disagree we weigh them, this season first, and name the side with the reasons against it.
History
Last meetings
- 2023 wk 15Buccaneers at PackersBuccaneers won, Buccaneers covered34-20
- 2022 wk 3Packers at BuccaneersPackers won, Packers covered14-12
- 2020 wk 20Buccaneers at PackersBuccaneers won, Buccaneers covered31-26
Against the spread in these meetings: 1-3 to Packers, on closing numbers.
The card
Betting PassThe number. The market has the Packers by 3.5 at a total of 39.5: Packers 21.5, Buccaneers 18 on paper.
How it plays. The total of 39.5 is low. Packers play slow (26th in plays a game). The forecast has gusts to 21, which leans the passing game down. The ball goes to the ground, so Johnson and Irving carry it more; the books raise rushing lines for weather (rushing overs 49% since 2019) and do not cut passing lines enough (passing overs 33% in wind), so the passing unders are the edge and the rushing overs are the story at a fair price.
What changed. Packers: WR Jayden Reed out. Buccaneers: QB Baker Mayfield out.
Model favorites
One favorite from 9 signals: the total. Data as of: forecast Wed 4:10 PM ET; injuries Wed 12:50 PM ET; model Sun 12:05 PM ET.
The total
4 reasons for, 1 againstHow the score works
Score is how much we trust a bet. 50 is a coin flip; the number is how far past it the evidence pushes: reasons for minus reasons against, and a reason from something with a years-long record counts more than a trend. Units follow it: a bet backed by a tracked record is 1 unit, 1.5 at 80 or more; a bet whose logic is sound but unproven is half a unit, and only at plus money or alongside a 1-unit bet on the same game. Click a bet for its reasons.