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Week 5 · Sunday Oct 11 · Final

BroncosatChargers

All week 5 games→Betting HQ→
FinalDEN 23, LAC 17Broncos by 6
SpreadDEN -3.5Broncos covered
Total42.5stayed under, 40 points
OpenedLAC -2.5moved 1 points by kickoff

The angles leaned Chargers +3.5 and Over 42.5: both missed.

Where it turned: the pass rush. Expect the Chargers to spend the day under pressure.

Depth charts

The charts as they stand today.

Denver depth chart→Los Angeles depth chart→

Head to head

The longer bar is the better unit, and it takes its team's colour. A long coloured bar against a short grey one is where a side has the edge.

Broncos with the ball

Broncos offenseChargers defense
22nd
Passing
16thi
10th
Run game
13th
1st
Pass rush
2nd
12th
Third down
13th
26th
Big plays
28th
21st
Turnovers
4th
10th
Red zone
13th

Chargers with the ball

Chargers offenseBroncos defense
29th
Passing
21sti
30th
Run game
32nd
32nd
Pass rush
10th
28th
Third down
26th
19th
Big plays
25th
31st
Turnovers
14th
12th
Red zone
6th

Ranks run 1st (best) to 32nd, 2026 through week 4 as they stood at kickoff, close-game snaps. "Faced" is the average rank of the units across from them so far.

The tale of the tape

This is a mismatch on the Chargers' side of the ball. Their pass protection ranks 32nd against a Broncos pass rush ranked 10th. Denver blitzes the 6th-most and played man coverage more than anyone last year, and Justin Herbert falls to 18th of 36 when blitzed. Denver's pass defense ranks 21st, but 10th once you account for the passing games it has faced. Since 2015, teams with an edge this big won 56% of the time but covered only 50%, because the line already knows. Los Angeles's answer is its takeaway defense, 4th at picking off passes, against a Denver offense that ranks 21st at avoiding them. The Chargers run on early downs the 3rd-most, into a run defense ranked 32nd. If the Chargers' run game, 30th, stalls and Herbert must throw from behind, that is where the game flips.

Denver has the best unit on the field: 1st at keeping Bo Nix clean, against a Chargers rush that is 2nd at hitting the quarterback. Nix throws short the 3rd-most and deep on just 5% of throws. Expect quick throws, not home runs: the offense is 26th in big plays. For the bet, the history and the angles disagree on the side. The total is split: Denver has gone over 6 of 8 as a road favorite and the angles lean Over 42.5 at 1.8x, but the Chargers have gone under 6 of 8 as a division underdog. Our picks on this game are on the card, behind the Betting Pass.

Team totals

Broncos scored 23 against a team total of 23: push. the spread and total, split; ours 21.0, 2.0 under.

Chargers scored 17 against a team total of 19.5: under. the spread and total, split; ours 21.1, 1.6 over.

Team angles

Every past game that looked like this one, counted by the side it covered. More of them than luck would give point at Chargers +3.5 and Over 42.5.

Chargers +3.5strongmissed
2,082 past angles back this side; luck alone would give about 489.
4.3xluck's count
Over 42.5somemissed, 40 points
1,951 past angles back this side; luck alone would give about 1,036.
1.9xluck's count

Player angles

No player line on this game was archived with a read.

Model plays

Graded: Small plays went 2-0; Watching went 2-3.

Keaton Mitchell under 32.5 rushing yards (-115 at Bovada)Small play, 1uwon, 11 rushing yards
His history: under 32.5 in 7 of 9 at home. Proof A: PR-013 family, spot rushing-yards under Stamped Fri 12:40 PM ET.
Oronde Gadsden II under 3.5 catches (-116.0 at BetMGM/DraftKings)Small play, 0.25uwon, 0 catches
Early-week under: The market: our projection 2.7 catches, first posted at 3.5 (3.5 now); the under by 11% past the price. Proof C: early-week under Stamped Sun 12:58 PM ET.
LAC +3.5Watching, not a betlost -0u
The market (points model): our line has it at Denver by about two tenths of a point, three and a half points off the market's three and a half; A rule (angle card): three proven reasons back LAC plus three and a half, hitting about fifty nine of every hundred in the twenty twenty to twenty twenty five replay; A rule (bet sheet): four proven angles sit on this side, including two fifty seven and one forty one on the pass defense versus injury cost combo. Proof C: the mined angle card Stamped Tue 12:09 AM ET.
DEN team total Under 23.5 (-125 at Bovada)Watching, not a betwon +0u
The market: our Broncos team total is 21.0, 2.5 points under the posted 23.5. Proof C: team total 2+ off the posted number Stamped Sat 1:01 PM ET.
10 more plays
DEN -3.5 (105.0)Watching, not a betwon +0u
The Broncos have covered 7 of 10 as a favorite after a loss. Proof: no registered rule behind it: the bet score and the read only Stamped Fri 8:39 AM ET.
Over 41.5 (-115.0)Watching, not a betlost -0u
The Broncos have gone over 6 of 8 as a road favorite. Proof: no registered rule behind it: the bet score and the read only Stamped Fri 8:39 AM ET.
Bo Nix over 220.5 passing yardsWatching, not a betlost, 123 passing yards
Bo Nix has 8 of his last 10 games on the road with over 14.5 rushing yards. Proof: no registered rule behind it: the bet score and the read only Stamped Fri 8:39 AM ET.
J.K. Dobbins under 52.5 rushing yardswithdrawn
Pulled Oct 11 when it stopped qualifying; it would have lost.
Marquez Valdes-Scantling anytime TDwithdrawn
Pulled Oct 11 when it stopped qualifying.
Derius Davis anytime TDwithdrawn
Pulled Oct 11 when it stopped qualifying.
Tre' Harris anytime TDwithdrawn
Pulled Oct 10 when it stopped qualifying.
Under 42.5withdrawn
Pulled Oct 8 when it stopped qualifying; it would have won.
Marvin Mims Jr. over 12.5 receiving yardswithdrawn
Pulled Oct 11 when it stopped qualifying; it would have lost.
Omarion Hampton over 39.5 rushing yardswithdrawn
Pulled Oct 11 when it stopped qualifying; it would have lost.
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